NBA best bets: Mavericks vs. Kings odds, pick, prediction for 3/29

Mavericks vs. Kings Odds

Friday, Mar. 29, 10 p.m. ET, NBA TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks demonstrate how the NBA is not only a game, but also a season of runs. Ultimately, we see ups and downs with teams based on health, schedule advantage, road trips, and even shooting variance.

The Mavericks have had multiple swings of stacking wins together and subsequent losing streaks, and part of our task as bettors is to identify these trends and find when to back or fade teams. Right now, the Mavericks are a team I am looking to back.

The Mavericks are playing with urgency to avoid the play in tournament. Their offense can score on anybody, and the defense is becoming stout with a bevy of rim protectors and switchable wings.

Luka Doncic is questionable with Achilles soreness, but given the importance of this game and the rest day between, I think ultimately he suits up.

You can get a discount Mavericks +1.5 line with Luka questionable, which becomes closer to a pick em when activated. I also like the over and think it raises with him active.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings' true colors are finally starting to show, and unfortunately it's a dimly lit beam in Sacramento.

The Kings have a net rating on the season of 0.9, which ranks 17th in the NBA. They have moved backwards into the 8-seed and by being a .500 team since the All Star Break.

While the Sabonis double double feat is incredibly impressive, the surrounding team does not have the top end star talent to truly compete in the Western Conference.

I think the Kings are both a good team to fade in game betting and a good team to target in prop betting because their stat set is very consistent. In each of the Kings' previous five games, Fox was the leading scorer and Sabonis led the team in both rebounds and assists.

I would expect a similar effort here.

Mavericks vs. Kings

Betting Pick & Prediction

The market angle to find the best bet in this game is important to understand the process because it can so easily be reapplied.

These two teams faced off two days ago in Sacramento. We have no rest advantage on either side, no travel advantage, and as long as Luka plays, no health advantages in either direction.

I think the safe assumption to make in these moments is to say not that much has changed since the last tip off, and the lines should be relatively the same to where they closed previously.

So let's go back to Tuesdays matchup where the game total opened at 236.5, and closed at 232.5 — and landed just five points under.

Now, the next game has reopened at 228.5, and this is a no-brainer signal it is going to increase! The line should return close to where it closed last time.

Play this over at any number under 230, and remember to compare markets in these two-game no travel sets as the NBA continues to prioritize the reduction of travel.