NBA best bets: Spread picks, player props, odds for 4/6

Cavaliers vs. Lakers

Saturday, April 6, 3:30 p.m. ET, League Pass
Lakers -5.5 (-105, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

The Lakers have been rolling lately, winning eight of their last nine games. They just concluded a successful road trip in which they went 5-1 and are back home to face the Cavaliers.

The Cavs have been up and down, splitting their last six games, losing six of their last nine and going 6-10 since March 5.

Cleveland is only 9-10 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog, which is just outside the league's bottom 10, and it is also just 17-22-1 on equal rest to its opponent — the seventh-worst ATS mark in the league. In the same scenario, the Lakers are 25-20 ATS, seventh best.

It isn't the be-all and end-all, nothing is this time of year, but it's hard to back the Cavs with the rhythm the Lakers are in with two days of rest.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable, so this blows up if either are out, but they've been generally active.

Additionally, -5.5 is as far as I'd go with the Lakers.

Pick: Lakers -5.5 (-105)

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Cavaliers vs. Lakers, part 2

Cavaliers 1H +2.5 (-105, Caesars)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

On the season, both of these teams have .500 ATS records in the first half — not much of an edge there. But if we look situationally, this is a favorable spot for Cleveland and a tough spot for the Lakers.

The Cavaliers have played well in the first half on the road following a loss (11-5-1 ATS).

Alternately, this is a spot where the Lakers have let their foot off the gas, coming home off a big roadtrip. In the Lakers' first home game following a stretch of three or more road games, Los Angeles is just 11-17 ATS since last season and 5-9 ATS this season.

It’s a tricky time of season to cap the motivation of teams, so tread lightly. I’ll take a stab on the Cavs +2.5 in the first half, but I wouldn’t play it below +2.

Pick: Cavaliers 1H +2.5 (-105)

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Cavaliers vs. Lakers, part 3

D'Angelo Russell Over 17.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

D'Angelo Russell has been one of my favorite players to bet on this season. He's known for his streakiness, but he's been a little more consistent. Russell has gone over 17.5 points in seven of his last nine games and 14 of his last 20 since the All-Star break.

On Saturday, Russell gets the Cavs, who allow the fourth-most field-goal attempts from 10-to-16 feet. Russell takes 12.1% of his shots from that range and he takes half of his shots from 3-point distance, where he's 42% for the season.

Pick: D'Angelo Russell Over 17.5 Points (-110)

76ers vs. Grizzlies

Saturday, April 6, 8 p.m. ET, League Pass
Joel Embiid Over 6.5 1Q Points (-146, FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The 76ers get an extremely soft matchup on Saturday against the Grizzlies.

Joel Embiid has made his triumphant return to action and has played about 30 minutes in each game, which is just a tick shy of his per-game average on the season (33 minutes).

Head coach Nick Nurse has consistently held Embiid out of games with big leads, so couple that with this being the front end of a back-to-back and a ramp-up scenario, I prefer to target the 1Q.

Embiid’s 1Q rotation is a bit different since his return. Pre-injury, his normal rotation was to play the entire 12 minutes. Since returning, he's played 5.7 and then 7.9 minutes. He has averaged 11.5 points per game in the 1Q on the season, so roughly one point per minute. Here, he should still see eight minutes in the first quarter (at least), with some upside if Nurse thinks he can be stretched out to 10 or 12 minutes.

Embiid has gone over this 6.5 1Q line in an absurd 86% of games — he just dropped 13 in 7.9 minutes against Miami on Thursday.

I like Embiid to start off strong against a Grizzlies team that’s ready for the offseason.

Pick: Joel Embiid Over 6.5 1Q Points (-146)

76ers vs. Grizzlies, part 2

GG Jackson Under 19.5 Points (-110, BetMGM)

By Michael Arinze

Philadelphia recently welcomed back Joel Embiid from a long injury spell. Even if he’s not fully at his peak, his presence alone is enough to impact the game, particularly on the defensive end of the court. Since his return, the 76ers limited the Thunder and Heat to 105 points in back-to-back games.

That could explain why bookmakers opened with a relatively low total of 208.5 points. There’s some correlation here with possibly a lower-scoring game and targeting players to stay under their prop projections.

One player who immediately comes to mind is Grizzlies rookie forward GG Jackson.

Jackson appeared in only four games in the first three months of the season before his playing time drastically increased after injuries ravaged the Grizzlies.

There have been some decent performances along the way, including a 35-point effort in a 137-116 loss to the Warriors in March. Jackson took 19 shots in the game, but since then, he averaged 11.6 attempts over his next seven outings.

As a result, this might be one of those instances where less is more if the Grizzlies prioritize having more balance on the court.

Jackson’s scoring prop of 19.5 points feels tied to some of his earlier performances after he burst onto the scene.

However, with a much-improved 76ers defense coming to town, playing Jackson under 19.5 warrants strong consideration.

Pick: GG Jackson Under 19.5 Points (-110)