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As the playoffs fast approach, the Los Angeles Clippers look nothing like the top-tier title contenders they were for a three-month stretch of the regular season after finding their groove with James Harden. Ty Lue’s team is just 9-10 since the All-Star break, sporting a -2.0 net rating over that timeframe that ranks 18th in basketball, per NBA.com/stats.
Even more troubling? Injuries and absences aren’t the only cause behind the Clippers’ late-season slide. The local star triumvirate of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden own a relatively pedestrian +6.1 net rating since the season resumed in late February, just above half of the impressive +11.7 net rating it raked up before the festivities in Indianapolis. Adding Ivica Zubac to that group only yields more of the same significant statistical dropoff.
Los Angeles, obviously, hasn’t punted on winning its first ever championship in 2023-24. No one wants to see a healthy Leonard in the playoffs, and George’s reputation as a postseason were always overblown and have recently proven outdated. Few coaches boast a stronger history of series-changing adjustments—though it would obviously be better if he wasn’t forced to make them after his teams have fallen behind—than Lue.
With Leonard locked up for the foreseeable future after signing an extension in January, though, it’s not too early for the Clippers to look beyond the postseason. Paul George has been eligible for his own big-money extension all season, but hasn’t come to terms with owner Steve Balmer and the front office. Still, the likeliest outcome is PG-13 remaining in Los Angeles long-term, either with a new contract before season’s end or in free agency this summer, according to Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.
“The belief coming from Los Angeles is that there is nothing to worry about, and George will be with the organization for several more years, sources said. Even before he has to make a decision on his $48.8 million player option for the 2024-25 season, George can receive a four-year extension that will pay him upwards of $220 million, aligning him with Leonard’s contract. By signing an extension with the Clippers, George would lock himself into the same amount of money any other team around the league can offer him should he become a free agent, and he would provide the organization with a sense of flexibility as they turn their attention towards keeping Harden, who will be a free agent at the end of the season.”
What about James Harden’s future with Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers?
Paul George’s desire and likelihood to remain with the Clippers beyond the next couple months is hardly revelatory. Even amid stalled season-long extension talks, every indication has been that he wants to stay with his hometown team, vying for title alongside Leonard and Harden.
There’s been similar intel regarding Harden’s future ever since Los Angeles acquired him from the Philadelphia 76ers in November. A free agent come summer, Harden didn’t outright squash reporting from TNT’s Chris Haynes in January that he hopes to “end his career” next to his thirtysomething co-stars with the Clippers.
“I thought the same thing last year, the last team I was on,” he said in response to those rumors, per ClutchPoints’ Tomer Azarly. “That’s why I did all those sacrifices but I’m here, home. We have an opportunity. I want to be able to keep the core together for a few years and I haven’t had those opportunities the last few years so things are going well and I’m happy.”
A new deal for George in line with Leonard’s slightly-below max contract plus a smaller yet still substantial agreement with Harden would ensure Los Angeles stays crippled financially going forward. A rough projection of $130 million in total salary for 2024-25 between the Clippers’ Big Three is slightly more than they’re being paid this season, while Zubac, Terance Mann, Norman Powell and PJ Tucker—whose $11.6 million player option is burning a hole in Lawrence Franks’ books—are set to account for approximately $54 million of additional salary.
A whopping $184 million committed to just seven players would leave Los Angeles just $6 million below the second luxury-tax apron. Guaranteed contracts for Amir Coffey, Kobe Brown and Bones Hyland would send the Clippers blowing past it, subject to stringent team-building restrictions that would prevent them from making major upgrades to the roster. Russell Westbrook has a player option on his current contract and could need a new deal, too.
“Ballmer wants to win and thus will be willing to pay the high tax bill that will come along with paying the fees associated with extensions for Leonard, George, and Harden,” Siegel reports.
Obviously, how Los Angeles fares in the playoffs will go a long way toward informing this team’s necessary areas of improvement. With Paul George all but guaranteed to return, Harden set to follow his lead and Ballmer comfortable doling historic luxury-tax payments once again, though, it seems inevitable next year’s Clippers will look a lot like this season’s—for better or worse.
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