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Pelicans’ dream seeding scenario, matchup for 2024 NBA Playoffs

Originally posted on ClutchPoints | By Chris Dodson | Last updated 3/29/24

Every NBA champion takes a different path to the NBA Finals. Some get cakewalk schedules afforded to a top seed. Others, like the Miami Heat’s recent run, start with first-round upsets. Right now the NBA Playoffs picture is a bit murky behind the runaway Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics.

The New Orleans Pelicans are right in the middle postseason picture, but fortunately, control their destiny down the stretch.

Zion Williamson’s perception-changing play since late January has led the aggressive Pelicans to one of the best seasons in franchise history. CJ McCollum called it ‘special’ but there would be a bittersweet feeling about this season should the team fall short of at least a first-round series triumph. Thankfully, they still have hopes of landing a dream scenario for the 2024 NBA Playoffs.

The first part of the equation is cheering for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Pelicans (45-28) have an 80% chance of falling into the fourth or fifth seed according to Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probability Report. New Orleans needs to win that first-round series to square up against Minnesota.

Both teams are hoping for this outcome actually, as it would mean the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder are on the other side of the bracket.

That’s the best-case scenario for New Orleans. Have the Nuggets, Thunder, Dallas Mavericks, and Phoenix Suns all on the same side of the bracket. The Nuggets and Thunder are just bad matchups for the Pelicans.

Any fans wanting to get greedy can hope for the Sacramento Kings to upset the Timberwolves in the first round. Either way, all roads to the Western Conference banner go through Nikola Jokic’s Nuggets. The best bet is to meet them in the conference finals rather than beat each other up in the second round.

The Phoenix Suns would be a dangerous eighth seed to whichever team takes the West’s top spot. The Pelicans would be best served with the Durant’s Suns in seventh and giving the second seed some trouble. Having both Denver and the Oklahoma City Thunder on the same side as Luka Doncic’s Dallas Mavericks would give New Orleans the easiest path to playoff success. They’ve shown well against the Los Angeles Clippers and Timberwolves already this season.

Zion Williamson’s Pelicans playing games that matter

New Orleans Pelicans guard CJ McCollum (3) huddles with his team during a timeout during the first half against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Williamson is having fun playing meaningful games down the stretch against other championship contenders jockeying for postseason positions. The Pelicans are playing games that matter and Williamson is in line to qualify for All-NBA teams thanks to a career-high in games played.

The Pelicans are fourth in Net Rating this season. They have the 12th-best offensive rating, fifth-best defensive rating, and third in steals per game. The locker room feels they can steal a few playoff wins, especially since they have a better road record than home.

The Smoothie King Center faithful’s energy is good for a few points in the NBA Playoffs after all. And those fans are getting some warmup games as well. New Orleans faces seven NBA Playoffs- or Play-In bound teams over their last nine regular season games.

Larry Nance Jr. let loose when asked about the importance of staying out of the NBA Play-In Tournament picture by beating teams like the Milwaukee Bucks at home.

“These games matter. These games count,” Nance Jr. stressed. “Not to take away anything from the teams previously in the season. The race to 50 is on there. We want to get the wins, but you have to go through some really good teams to get there, and you have to go through some really good teams to solidify our spot in the playoffs.”

In the best-case scenario, the Pelicans only have to beat the Clippers, Kings, and whoever comes out of the other side of the bracket to make the franchise’s first NBA Finals appearance. Do that, and this team’s legacy will be solidified in the city’s sporting history.

This article first appeared on ClutchPoints and was syndicated with permission.

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