Expect the unexpected on draft day

If there's one thing Pats fans have learned since Bill Belichick has taken over, it's expect the unexpected on draft day. Between trades and the drafting of players unthinkable to all prognosticators, the Patriots have kept everyone guessing when it comes to the NFL Draft. During Belichick's second draft, everyone expected the Pats to draft WR David Terrell from Michigan with the #6 overall pick. Instead, Belichick and Pioli drafted DE/DT Richard Seymour. Seymour became a Pro Bowl player, and David Terrell isn't even in a starting lineup. Nobody expected the Pats to draft a guard in the first round in 2005, let alone Logan Mankins. He was voted to the Pro Bowl this past season. Draft experts have had the Pats drafting a linebacker or a corner in the first round the past few years, but they have yet to do so, despite the need.

This year could be different. The Pats haven't had a pick as high in the first round as they have this year since 2001 when they drafted Seymour. Most say the Pats will try and trade back and accumulate more picks and try and get better value for players most feel they can get at later picks than #7. There are still mixed opinions as to whether there are any cornerbacks or linebackers that deserve a top 10 grade. CB Leodis McKelvin has been deemed by most as the top corner in the draft, though that doesn't necessarily mean that he receives a top 10 grade. The only true linebacker that can possibly sniff the top 10 picks is Keith Rivers from USC, who projects as an ILB in the 3-4. Any other player that could play LB in the Pats' 3-4 defense, such as Vernon Gholston or Chris Long, are linebacker/defensive end hybrids. The question remains: What exactly will the Pats do to try and get the best pick at the best value?

The possiblity remains that Belichick and Pioli pick the best player available at #7 regardless of the position the player plays. That could mean tackle, runningback, defensive tackle, or defensive end, which are not positions the Patriots are in dire need of. One thing the Pats have shown is that they are not afraid to pick "best player available" according to their draft board and have stayed away from drafting for need of the player doesn't fit their value board. The Pats could also draft a player at a position of need but one that draft "experts" feel is a reach at that spot. The Patriots do not seem to tend to the conventional draft boards and have their own set of values for players. A corner such as Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could be rated as the top corner on the Pats' board but rated as a late-round pick on draftniks such as Mel Kiper's board. Again, conventional wisdom says the Pats move back in the draft because they need more young players and could stockpile picks, there are no sure-fire top ten guys where they are picking, and they prefer to pay big guaranteed contracts to veterans over rookies. But this is the Patriots we're talking about, right?

Do not dismiss the possibility of moving up in the draft to grab a prospect they feel is a can't-miss prospect. Remember, expect the unexpected with the Patriots on draft day. It is highly possible that the Pats covet Vernon Gholston and/or Chris Long, two prospects that would be OLBs in the 3-4 and are projected to be impact players, but would not last past the Jets at #6. Moving up would not necessarily be very costly to the Patriots in terms of draft picks.