NFL Player Props

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I just got back from a weekend in Las Vegas and picked up the Player Propositions Sheet at the Venetian. I compared the betting line with AccuScoreâ??s current season player projections (stats based on average of 10,000 season simulations) to see if there were any strong plays.

PASSING TOUCHDOWNS

The first key stat is Passing Touchdowns and there are number of strong Over plays.

QB ACCUSCORE PICK: OVER Tom Brady LINE: 27.5 ACC: 38 It looks like Vegas expects Brady's injury from last season to take a severe toll with a line of just 29.5. This is a 20.5 drop from his 50 TD '07-08 Season. The key pieces of that record breaking offense are still in place and AccuScore expects Brady to soar of 30 TDs this season while still being well under his record-breaking pace. Drew Brees LINE: 27.5 ACC: 32 Brees has averaged over 29 passing TDs a season since joining the Saints. AccuScore expects him to come close to his 34 from last season with 32 in '09. The Vegas line is set at 27.5 probably because the Saints have a tougher schedule in 2009. However, as long as the offense still passes the ball over 580 times, Brees (and WR Marques Colston) stay healthy he should go over 27.5. Kurt Warner LINE: 25.5 ACC: 34 Clearly Vegas thinks Warner will get hurt and miss as many as 3 or 4 games. AccuScore's projection is for Warner to stay healthy and with Anquan Boldin in camp and seemingly ready to play the season with Arizona the Cardinals prolific passing game should reach the endzone at least 30+ times. This pick is 100% tied to Warner's ability to stay healthy. Donovan McNabb LINE: 21.5 ACC: 26 McNabb had 23 passing TDs in '09. He had 10 in his first 8 games (1.25 per game), but finished with 18 in his final 11 regular season and playoff games (1.64 average). His higher average was tied to the healthy return of WR Kevin Curtis and the emergence of TE Brent Celek. With a healthy set of receivers which includes rookie Jeremy Maclin, McNabb is set for a better season in 2009 and over 21.5 passing TDs. Matt Hasselbeck LINE: 19.5 ACC: 23 Hasselbeck is just 1 season removed from a 28 Pass TD season in 2007. If healthy, the Seahawks passing game should more closely resemble the 2007 sqaud than the injury plagued 2008 one. They added TJ Houshmandzadeh and Hasselbeck is healthy. The NFC West is still a relatively weak division and Hasselbeck should have over 20 TDs. Ben Roethlisberger LINE: 19.0 ACC: 22 Big Ben was considered a fantasy bust in 2008 with just 17 TDs (down from 32 the previous season), but considering how tough his schedule was 17 was very good. The Steelers go from having the toughest schedule to one of the easiest and Roethlisberger is slated to bounce back with a 20+ TD season. Matt Ryan LINE: 17.5 ACC: 22 The Falcons have a much tougher schedule in 2008 which could hurt their chances of returning to the playoffs, but it could actually help Matt Ryan produce more TDs because the Falcons may play more games from behind which relies on the passing game. They also have Tony Gonzalez to help Ryan pass for over 20 TDs in simulations.

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