Last week:
Dallas: W, 31-22
Carolina: W, 34-0

Fortunate once again, as a Shayne Graham FG cut the Cowboys' lead to one with 14:02 left. Only 19% of the ESPN contestants were eliminated last week, which is the lowest since I've been keeping track; in Weeks 2-4, an average of 36% of the field was eliminated each week.

Five weeks in, this is going to start getting a bit trickier. Here are the teams I have used so far, along with their LVSC ranks: Philly (6), Tampa (16), NY Giants (2), Jacksonville (9), Dallas (1). So I still have three top five teams left, in the Chargers, Redskins, and Steelers. The Redskins are a legitimate top five team. Wow.

Here are this week's most popular ESPN selections:


Washington (LVSC #4, v. St. Louis)
Minnesota (LVSC #13, v. Detroit)

These are the only games with spreads over 10 this week; the Redskins are favored by 13.5, while the Vikings are -13. Because of their slow start, that number probably underrates Minnesota somewhat; they're receiving just 50% of the action at Wagerline. There's no sense in trying to split hairs; these two teams have essentially the same chances of winning this week.

The Redskins are pretty clearly the stronger team, which gives the initial edge to the Vikings, since Washington will be more valuable to save. Playing in the NFC East, the Redskins have a very difficult schedule the rest of the way, but they do have another easy game next week, when they host Cleveland. The Browns certainly aren't as bad as St. Louis, but Washington should be favored by about 10 points in that one. That looks like the second best spot for next week; the Giants, hosting San Francisco, will probably be favored by more, but I already used them in Week 3. If anyone has both Washington and New York left, that's another discussion, which I suppose we can have in the comments.

After Sunday, the Vikings have five home games left, against Houston, Green Bay, Chicago, Atlanta, and the Giants. That Week 16 game against the Falcons would certainly be a possibility, but that's just too far from now, and there's too much uncertainty regarding what will happen between now and them, for it to be worth saving them. Unless you have both the Redskins and Giants left, I think Minnesota is the best option this week.

New Orleans (LVSC #15, v. Oakland)

I have a hard time getting too excited about this Saints team, and Vegas obviously feels the same way. I cannot think of any reason to take them here; this is, at best, the third best spot of the week. The Saints also host the Falcons in Week 14; there's a good chance that at that point I'll be pretty desperate, having used most of the teams ahead of them in the rankings, and they may end up being the best option.

Philadelphia (LVSC #6, @ San Francisco)
Chicago (LVSC #16, @ Atlanta)

Okay, these are just dumb. These Eagles and Bears are favored by 4.5 and 3 points, respectively, and are both very popular picks to cover those numbers. The "no road teams" rule should only be broken in extreme circumstances, and this week certainly does not qualify.

Original Story: http://vegaswatch.net/2008/10/nfl-sur...