Originally posted on Sons of Roto  |  Last updated 8/22/12


::Insert Luck Gambling Joke Here::
Photo Credit: BrokenSphere

In my last article we reviewed my expectations and predictions concerning over/under wins for some NFL teams. Here, I wanted to pick some individual season-long player matchups that you can make some coin on. So if you’re into protection, find some contraceptive because my words are about to make sex to your brain.

More after the jump:

Player to record more touchdowns: Antonio Gates -2.5 touchdowns vs. Tony Gonzalez
For those of you who have read my stuff before, you know what I think of Tony Gonzalez. The guy should be wearing adult diapers and this year I fully expect him to **** himself. The man is 36 years old and playing a position that requires him to take on defensive ends and linebackers. Last year, Tony surprised some people and outperformed what prognosticators expected. Well, this year father time has caught up with him. Gonzalez is looking every bit his age and is predicted to retire after season’s end. Antonio Gates, on the other hand, is healthy for the first time in years. Getting down to brass tacks, Gates has to catch three more touchdowns than Gonzalez for you to win this bet and I’m confident he can do so. Gates is four years younger than Gonzalez and is playing on a team where he’s expected to be the go-to guy. Gonzalez, on the other hand, is playing on a team featuring Roddy White, Julio Jones and Harry Douglas. The prediction here: Antonio Gates reels in thirteen touchdowns. Tony G takes home 5. The play is Antonio Gates -2.5 touchdowns.

Player to throw for more yards: Andrew Luck +80.5 yards vs. Robert Griffin III
Dirk Diggler once said, “You know, I’m gonna be a great big, bright shining star.” Well, right now Andrew Luck could say the same thing and we’d all have to shut up and agree. While Luck may not hang twelve limp, he is going to win a lot of awards. The first award I expect him to win is rookie of the year. Luck is getting yards in this bet which is a shock to me. The Colts are significantly worse on defense than the Redskins are. This means they’ll be behind in games and forced to throw more than the Redskins. RGIII will also be using his legs to pick up some first downs… meaning, yet again, that he’ll be throwing less than Luck. Expect Luck to win this bet by five hundred yards easy. It’s a little bold for me to tell you that Luck will win this bet by that much but that’s what I fully expect to happen. The play is Andrew Luck +80.5 yards.

Player to record most passing touchdowns: Aaron Rodgers -5.5 touchdowns vs. Eli Manning
Last year Aaron Rodgers threw for 45 touchdowns. The silly thing is he could have thrown for more. When Rodgers isn’t dating Gossip Girls and turning down Miss Americas, he’s busy getting benched because his team has already clinched home field advantage. But if that’s the case, that usually means Rodgers has put in work. Eli Manning threw for 29 touchdowns last season. That’s a 16 touchdown disparity between him and Rodgers, and Rodgers played in one less game. It’s absolutely silly for odds makers to think that Manning will close the gap by eleven touchdowns this year (with the spread). I’m not saying Rodgers wins this bet by a ton, but I fully expect Rodgers to lead the league again in touchdowns. If he does that and Manning throws his usual thirty, Rodgers covers comfortably. The play is Aaron Rodgers -5.5 touchdowns.

 

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