Denver Broncos (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9)
There are two trends that apply to this game, but both of them can be neutralized by the fact that this matchup is divisional. Home dogs are 57-40 ATS off a loss as home dogs since 2002, but that only 13-10 ATS as divisional home dogs after being non-divisional home dogs. When you go back to 2002 to get a bigger sample size, that trend is just 28-27 ATS.
Meanwhile, fading touchdown road dogs is generally a good idea, which makes sense. It’s really hard, no matter who you are, of winning by a touchdown or more on the road. Touchdown plus road favorites are 80-99 ATS since 2002, but only 31-33 ATS in the division. You’d think it would be stronger in the division because it’s tough to go into a divisional opponent and blow them out because they know you so well, making up for some of the talent gap, but that’s not the case. In fact, since 1989, double digit road favorites in the division are 25-27 ATS.
We are getting some line value with...