Originally written December 07, 2012 on The Football Fan Spot:
Detroit Lions (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-4) This is a really interesting game. Earlier this week, I wrote about some of the parity related things that happen every single year and how those could be used to help predict games the rest of the way. The Lions are by far the likeliest candidate to be this year’s team that goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Only the Saints and Lions are 2011 playoff teams with 5 or wins right now and the Saints would have to lose out to finish 5-11, highly unlikely. The Lions, however, stand at 4-8 and will only be favored in one more game the rest of the way so chalk gets them to 5-11 and fulfills the requirement. The Packers, meanwhile, are the most likely candidate to be this year’s team that goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. Keep in mind, that’s happened every year in at least the same decade, while the trend mentioned in the first paragraph has happened in every season except one in at least the last decade. The Packe...
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