Expectations: Can this year's Chiefs compete?

Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} As a side note, I'm very sorry for the extended delay in posting on Home of the Chiefs. We will get back to a regular posting schedule soon as more action heats up with minicamps, but I've been swamped with my actual job and other obligations at home. Without making too much a fuss about it, let's get on with today's post. Chiefs fans always seem to have perpetually high expectations, which is ironic, since our traditionally bad baseball team has a championship more recently than our football team, despite this being a "football town." Given the renovations at Arrowhead and the new regime in town, what kind of expectations are reasonable? I'm gonna lay it down now and say this Chiefs team wins no more than seven games this year. Then again, we have no idea given the relative media blackout with this team, so they could surprise. They could also be duds. Let's look on both sides of the ball. Last year, the Chiefs ranked 20th in the league in passing yards with 195.6 per game, and 16th in the league with 113.1 yards per game. Yet the scoring offense was 26th in the league, averaging 18.2 points per game. Tony Gonzalez accounted for about 20% of their scoring (seriously, that's even counting the kicker... so of offensive players, his number is assuredly much higher, but this writer is too busy to dig that hard), and was arguably their best threat to score touchdowns. He's gone now. On the flip side, Larry Johnson (off-field aside) had a productive season of 4.5 yards / carry. It's obvious that LJ still "has it," and Jamaal Charles is definitely an acceptable alternative (5.3 yards / carry). The ground game, which frustrated fans so much last year, is essential to any winning ballclub. Matt Cassell will surely be a better passer, but I worry about his targets. I don't think this club's problem is productivity when it comes to gaining yardage, but meaningful productivity. This team was awful at converting 3rd downs (82/214 = 38.3%, almost 10% less than opponents averaged against the Chiefs. Considering teams will typically see more than 10 3rd downs in a game, that's a significant swing every game).They never seemed to have "big plays" or score touchdowns in key situations. Not only that, but the defense wasn't good at all last year. 234 yards passing, 159 yards rushing... 393 yards and 27.5 points per game. That's bad. That's real bad. 10 sacks was bad. We're not going to live in the past, but there are two schools of thought to what caused the Chiefs' problems - coaching and talent. Did the Chiefs have significant talent last year? Not really. The Chiefs do not have a marquee defensive player or a bona fide defensive leader who stands out for performance on top of ability. Adding the aging Zach Thomas and obtaining Mike Vrabel (he doesn't even seem like he wants to be here) doesn't seem to be a fix. A team is the sum of its parts. The Chiefs now have to hope for a superior freshman effort from Todd Haley (who was an offensive specialist, not a defensive whiz), because the talent level on this team isn't there. The media loves to cover words like "leadership" and veteran presence. To an extent, I can buy a need for that. But the Chiefs are going to be under the cap and need to add one more legitimate deep threat and a couple marquee defenders. After all, in recent times, the only "offensive" team that has made a championship was the Indianapolis Colts. Defense wins championships. Switching to a 3-4 may afford some change, but until the talent falls into place, it's not enough to make up for an abysmal defense. The best thing I hope for this year is an average team. A 7 win season would be a strong sign that these Chiefs might be ready to compete in Haley's second and third years, but I'm not gonna hold my breath for this (we'll take a look at the schedule in a future post). I think it's more reasonable to expect a little less, since this is Todd Haley and Scott Pioli's first years, but last year's team was capable of winning 5-6 more games, so I think this year's team should be moderately better, if not only because the Chiefs have a relatively young roster which now has some vital NFL experience. But are there any fans left to care? More on that in my next post.