Well, that was fast.
As soon as I opened up my big mouth and proclaimed that 2011 was going to be the most prolific fantasy year ever, scoring around the league plummets. No worries.
At least I had a great week on the predictions front, as I was right on nearly 80% of my picks.
As always, here is a quick look back at last week before we move on to week 7.
- Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits: Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
- Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits: 13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
- Quick Note: The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness: Peyton Hillis, Julio Jones
Overall: 30 for 38 (79%)
Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4
- Hits: Tom Brady, Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Hernandez
- Misses: None
Start Em Predictions: 2 for 3
- Hits: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant
- Misses: Benjamin Watson
Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 15
- Hits: Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Jimmy Graham, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten
- Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, Curtis Painter
Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
- Hits: Miami QB, Mike Thomas, Scott Chandler
- Misses: Jahvid Best
Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4
- Hits: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jermichael Finley
- Misses: Arian Foster (although I was VERY close…), Steve Johnson
Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 8
- Hits: Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Tim Hightower, Ted Ginn Jr., Randall Cobb
- Misses: Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram
#####Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em Sit Em
Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.
Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 7:
- New England
- NY Giants
- San Francisco
Projected Best Performer – Tony Romo
Dez Bryant and Miles Austin came back off of injury last week and played very well. Unfortunately, none of them could get into the end zone against the Patriots’ defense. Week seven should be a different story as the Cowboys host the hapless St. Louis Rams. I feel VERY good about this pick – when you can seamlessly insert the word “hapless” into a sentence and nobody disagrees, you know you are in for a good week in fantasy.
Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 380 yards, 4 TDs
Start Em – Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben got off to a great start last week before Rashard Mendenhall got rolling. Look for Big Ben to have a big day against the very average Arizona secondary.
Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 295 yards, 3 TDs
Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:
- Jay Cutler – First of all, he just DOMINATES. Secondly, haven’t you been more and more impressed with him every week? Tampa Bay is good, but not against the pass (27th in the league), and Cutler has clearly proven that he is an elite QB. If Mike Martz really HAS solved their offensive line problems with the heavier protection packages, look for Cutler to dominate yet again.
- Matthew Stafford – Atlanta has the sixth worst passing defense in the league…and Calvin Johnson won’t be happy about getting shut out for the first game all year. Big day for Stafford and Co.
- Drew Brees – He’s amazing…and playing the Colts.
- Matt Hasselbeck – As long as he stays healthy, he should put up some good numbers. Plus, he’s playing the Texans who are in the bottom half of the league at defending the pass.
Projected Worst Performer – Blaine Gabbert
Rookie…who may not be that good…playing on MNF…against Baltimore. Yikes.
Blaine Gabbert Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs
Sit Em – Cam Newton
Coming off of his first rough game of the year, Cam Newton would like to be playing someone soft on the defensive side of the ball. Unfortunately, he will be facing the Redskins, who are sixth in the league against the pass. Look for Cam to still get his points (running the ball and maybe scoring a TD or two), but not come anywhere close to the production he had in weeks one through five.
Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 230 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 40 yards rushing.
Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:
- Mark Sanchez and Philip Rivers – San Diego and NY are ranked 1st and 4th against the pass respectively. Don’t expect either team to really air it out in this one.
- Kevin Kolb – Isn’t it an amazing testament to Dick LeBeau that for years you couldn’t run on the Steelers, and as soon as the league turned pass-happy the Steelers became impossible to pass against? So far, they are second in the league against the pass, allowing a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt. Wow.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Running Backs
I agree that Tony Romo is a start this week against the Rams’ secondary, but it should be noted that I was VERY high on Romo last week against New England and he disappointed. I think there are some real confidence issues on the Dallas offense. Watch this game carefully. If Romo doesn’t have a big day with Dez and Miles, and Jason Garrett continues to be a conservative play caller, I’m going to start to worry about Romo’s fantasy potential for the rest of the season.
As for Gabbert, I think you’re over-shooting his potential. One TD against Baltimore? Only in extreme garbage time. (So I guess it’s possible…)
I don’t know if you opinions on Cutler and Cam will be popular, but I agree with them. Sound reasoning on both.
Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice
Monday Night Football against the Jaguars. Don’t get your hopes up if you have a ten point lead going into Monday if the other guy has Ray Rice.
Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 190 total yards, 2 TDs
Start Em – Ryan Torain
Torain got a lot of touches last week, and the Panthers are last in the league against the run. Torain, and maybe even Roy Helu should have a very good game against the fighting Cam-Cams.
Ryan Torain Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 total yards, 1 TDs
Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:
- Whoever is rushing for TB – Either way, he should have a good game against a poor Chicago front seven.
- Rashard Mendenhall – Back to back productive weeks for the Pittsburgh running game, and finally a good week for Mendenhall, who has been extremely disappointing this season.
- Michael Turner – Detroit’s outstanding defensive line is surprisingly lackluster against the run. Plus, ATL is trying to get back to their old, conservative ways. Big day for Michael Turner.
Projected Worst Performer – GB Running Backs
Green Bay’s running backs aren’t good…and Minnesota’s rush defense is really good…and it doesn’t matter because Aaron Rodgers and the Packers simply don’t need to run the ball.
Packers’ RBs Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 65 total yards
Sit Em – Willis McGahee
The Dolphins will be thinking one thing this week: “let’s see if Tim Tebow can beat us.” They will be stacking the box to stuff the run, and they are already great against the run (third in the league). This is especially staggering considering they have been so awful this year and have faced offenses that have been conserving leads late in games. Look for McGahee and Moreno to have very quiet weeks as Miami and everyone else watches to see if Timmy can beat them.
Knowshon Moreno Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 45 total yards
Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:
- Adrian Peterson – Green Bay is great against the run…and might be up by 60 points in the first quarter. Just think about it.
- Rams’ Running Backs – Dallas is #1 against the run…and could be playing with a lead for most of the game.
- Jonathan Stewart – Washington’s defense is solid all over, and Stewart will be left out of the mix this week.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Wide Receivers
First off, just so we’re clear: DO NOT SIT ADRIAN PETERSON. Okay? Under no circumstances does this guy ever come out of your lineup. Is Green Bay a potentially troublesome matchup from a touch perspective? Sure. And are they good against the run? Yes, they’re pretty good. But this is ADRIAN PETERSON. Start him. Always.
Moving on now…
I would never tell anyone to sit Ray Rice, and you shouldn’t. But I am not nearly as bullish as Jon is considering the matchup. Jacksonville is many things, and most of them bad, but their defense is actually pretty good. Rice will find the going tougher than many might think.
As for Torain, I trusted him in Week 6 and he failed me. I still like him going forward, especially with the matchup this week, but just know that whenever you start a running back for Mike Shanahan you are taking on the risk of that running back getting benched for the hot hand. It’s just how it is. Still, Torain is probably a low-top 20 option this week.
Projected Best Performer – Megatron
He will be mad after being shut out last week for the first time. Plus, Atlanta is ATROCIOUS defending the pass (29th in the league for receiving defense).
Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Start Em – Dwayne Bowe
He’s big, he’s strong, he’s rested, and he’s facing a terrible secondary. Bowe won’t disappoint his owners in week 7.
Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 130 receiving yards, 1 TD
Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:
- Mike Wallace – He’s a big play machine.
- Greg Jennings – He was left out of the shuffle a little bit last week. Rodgers will get him involved again.
- Devin Hester – If the Bears run more 7 and 8 man protection schemes, they will have to utilize Hester more because he is one of their only receivers that is explosive enough to beat his man one on one. Plus, he’s money in the return game.
- Pierre Garcon – His speed and size create matchup problems for the Saints. Despite a huge drop, he killed them in the Super Bowl and he will do it again this week.
Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas
I almost feel bad for the guy. His team is terrible, his QB is young (and possibly terrible), and he will be facing a tough Baltimore defense on national television.
Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 30 yards.
Sit Em – Vincent Jackson
A little bit overrated…and facing Darrelle Revis. Not a good combination.
Vincent Jackson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 3 catches for 40 yards
Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:
- Larry Fitzgerald – Dick LeBeau will make it his personal mission to ensure that Kolb won’t even have enough time to throw the ball up to Larry.
- Santonio Holmes – Rough week for Sanchez, the Jets’ offensive line, and in consequence, Mr. Holmes.
- Brandon Lloyd – Receivers don’t do much when they switch teams mid-season.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Tight Ends
Yes, Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe should both off this week. Solid choices. However, I cannot tell people to sit Larry Fitzgerald. I know the matchup isn’t great and Kevin Kolb is a turd disguised as a franchise QB, but Fitzgerald remains one of the five most talented receivers in football. He can pop for two TDs any week. Play him.
I also am not a big fan of Brandon Lloyd for this week, but I do like him long-term. He is back with Josh McDaniels, and Sam Bradford has been yearning for a true #1 WR, a role that Lloyd can fill. Once Bradford gets healthy and the Rams’ schedule eases up, Lloyd could pay huge fantasy dividends. Buy low, and buy now.
Projected Best Performer – Jimmy Graham
He might go for 400 yards against the Colts’ defense.
Jimmy Graham Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 110 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Start Em – Fred Davis
Look for whoever is playing QB for Washington to check down often and look for Davis on safe, quick passes all day.
Fred Davis Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 8 catches for 95 receiving yards, 1 TD
Other Start ‘Em Picks at TE for Week Seven:
- Tony Gonzalez – Matt Ryan will look Tony’s way against the Detroit Defensive Line.
- Greg Olsen – Cam Newton loves him, and he will be one of the only guys that has a good game against the ‘Skins.
Projected Worst Performer – Visanthe Shiancoe
Not a good matchup against Green Bay’s linebackers.
Visanthe Shiancoe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 2 catches for 20 yards
Sit Em – Dustin Keller
Once again, it’s very hard to choose a TE that will play poorly when most of them seem to be playing so well, but I think Keller and the rest of the Jets’ offense will have a rough game against San Diego.
Dustin Keller Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 50 yards.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em D/ST
It’s very hard to quibble with any of these picks. Jimmy Graham has a ridiculous four straight games with 100 yards receiving or more. That is insane. And despite injuring his coach in Week 6, I’m sure Drew Brees will continue targeting him incessantly this week and beyond. He’s the clear #1 tight end in football right now.
[Editor's note: As always, the D/ST picks are written by Jerod, not Jon.]
Start Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys
Do you realize the Cowboys D is owned in only 47% of Yahoo leagues? Wow. When was the last time anything associated with the Cowboys was underrated? Folks, you can forget about the porous unit from last year. Rob Ryan has done wonders with this year’s Cowboys. Anchored by the spectacular Demarcus Ware and the emerging Sean Lee, the 2011 Cowboys D is solid. They also have a great matchup in Week 7 against St. Louis. Pick up and start.
Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:
- The New Orleans Saints defense hasn’t been great this year, but I like a blitz-happy D against the Colts’ Curtis Painter.
- Tim Tebow makes his first start of the season in Week 7. Considering his throwing deficiencies, the Dolphins aren’t a terrible option if the bye week has you desperate.
Sit Em D/ST: Minnesota Vikings
I recommended the Vikings D to a few people last week, thinking they’d have a field day against the Bears’ terrible O-line, but I was proven horribly wrong. So let me state the obvious to make amends: you don’t want to start the Vikings’ D against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.
Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:
- The Jets’ D has been shaky this year – don’t let their strong performance against Matt Moore and the Dolphins fool you. Facing Phil Rivers and the Chargers, who are coming off a bye and should have Antonio Gates back, could be trouble for Rex Ryan’s crew.
That’s all we’ve got for you this week folks. Pose your questions in the comment section and we’ll be here all week to answer. Good luck in Week 7!
Jon Washburn @The_Dr_Twitch
Don’t miss the rest of our Week 7 Fantasy Football coverage:
- Week 7 Waiver Wire Advice
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