Found August 08, 2013 on NFL Injury Report:
Rookie running backs are often very tempting to grab in the middle rounds of a fantasy draft. The potential for an unlimited ceiling and keeper value is difficult to overlook. This year the depth at RB is unbelievably shallow. The top tier is well established, but moving outside of the top 20 gets ugly, and leaves a lot to chance. 2013 is not the year to take that chance on a rookie. Montee Ball's average draft position is currently hovering around the 45-range. Since reports that sophomore RB Ronnie Hillman might be the on-paper starter, Ball's value has dropped, slightly. Although the Denver backfield is crowded, managers still seem high on Ball. Aside from the 2011 season with Tim Tebow under center, the Broncos haven't had a thousand-yard rusher since 2006 (Tatum Bell). In '06 Jake Plummer started 16 games at quarterback, passed for a sparse 1,900 yards, and won 9 games. Needless to say, with John Elway behind the desk, and Peyton Manning in control, the Broncos are going to be a pass-happy offense. Ball is still being overvalued as a result of early hype. Unless he falls in your draft where you're taking him as a low-end RB3, I would stay away from the rookie. Both Ball and Lacy were drafted in the second round of this year's draft. In the past 4 seasons (2009-2012) there have been 30 running backs drafted in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds of the NFL draft. Of these backs, only LeSean McCoy scored more than 2 TDs in his rookie year, and only DeMarco Murray rushed for over 700 yards as a rookie. Eddie Lacy was considered by many to be the best running back in college football in 2012. Packers' leading rushers have averaged only 914 yards in the past 10 years. Ahman Green tipped the scale in 2003 with almost 2,000 yards. Since Aaron Rodgers has taken control of the offense, only Ryan Grant has broken the thousand-yard mark. Mike McCarthy was promoted to Packers' head coach in 2006 and his running backs have averaged an underwhelming 6.5 touchdowns per season. Eddie Lacy is currently ranked No. 28 among fantasy running backs. It would be difficult to pass on Lacy around pick No. 70, but I just can't put much stock in any running back in this Packers' system. If you waited on taking your third runner for too long, or you're looking for a strong RB4, it might be worth passing on Lacy and looking at Ahmad Bradhsaw or Shane Vareen. I know it's tempting to reach for a fresh-face, but this isn't the year to do it. Unless you're in a very deep format, Le'veon Bell is likely the only viable RB2 or RB3 in your fantasy draft this season.
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