After a weekend that included two sister-kissing pushes, we’ll start the rebound with a Thanksgiving Treat. Riding a 5-1 Turkey Day record into the 2011 Holiday Season, and considering every year some type of trend seems to take place -whether it’s all dogs covering, all road teams winning or something of that nature- we’re going to stick with the oldest adage in the Turkey Day Playbook: “Don’t bet against Dallas or Detroit on Thanksgiving!” If you were raised in a gambling family or had an older guy mentoring you 
while you were taking your gambling baby steps -I had both so I never had a chance NOT to be immersed in this game- you’ve probably heard those most-of-the-time-unhelpful words before. But it will finally hold true this year, with a third home team taking home a cover as well. I hope all you guys have a tremendous holiday wherever you may be. The money will come in handy in a month and you can “thank” me for “giving” it to ya later. Here we go!…..-Fireman Mike
Remember a few weeks back when we talked about betting on a streak to start. Well, that theory holds true for both teams coming into this game. The Packers failed to cover last weekend against the Bucs and played terribly down the stretch to do so. The Lions on the other hand rallied from a big deficit -albeit against a porous Carolina defense- for a big 49-35 win. I don’t think anybody holds a true formula to beating the Packers this season but they do definitely have the capability of beating themselves especially if you put Aaron Rodgers on his back a few times, something Mr. Suh and Co. truly enjoy doing. The physical presence of Suh coming up the middle as well as a secondary that is fairly oportunistic should be enough to keep the Packers from marching down the field early and often, something most of their foes have not been able to do thus far in 2011. Offensively things seemed to click for running back Kevin Smith and quarterback Matt Stafford last weekend after they were down, and as long as they can channel that energy from the kick off of this baby they should be in business.
The Packers escape with a 27-24 victory on a late touchdown by Jordy Nelson but you impress your friends and family by being the only guy in the room with money on the Lions. I’d wait until the last possible minute to put this game in because you’ll probably be able to get this at GB -7 once the fairweather Thanksgiving gamblers invade Vegas and hop on Green Bay. If not, think about buying it down to -7 with your book.
Dallas -7 vs. MiamiThrow the last few weekends out the window when you’re dissecting the Dolphins offensive capabilities. They’ve taken advantage of some of the NFL’s worst defensive units to run their season PPG average up to 19.3. They’re more likely somewhere in between the 
team that scored 16-points against the Chargers or 17-points against the Giants. Dallas on the other hand has turned it up a notch after realizing their back were squarely against the wall a few weeks back. Tony Romo usually performs well at home and the Cowboys’ 18-2 record in November with Romo at the helm is something to pay attention to. The Dolphins aren’t 3rd-to-last-team-to-win-a-game bad but they certainly aren’t capable of putting together a tremendous performance against a playoff-level team on the road in this kind of atmosphere.
The Cowboys roll to a 37-13 victory on an array of offensive and defensive touchdowns against the league newest Hot to Not QB, Matt Moore.
Baltimore -3.5 vs. San FransiscoNever bet against a streak…….Unless that streaking team is traveling across the country on three days rest and one day of practice to play the most physical team the NFL has seen in the last two decades. I know the 49ers are 9-0-1 against the spread on the year, mainly because they weren’t given a ton of respect in Vegas until lately, but this game has letdown written all over it for the Niners. Hell, if the Cardinals had a quarterback with a pulse last weekend they might have been able to put that streak to a screeching halt. But they didn’t, so we’ll look like overstuffed geniuses laying on the coach counting our cash come midnight. San Fran has been able to attack the middle of the field on everybody they’ve played and have found a ton of success in doing so. The middle of the field is patrolled -most likely- by two Hall of Famers who don’t give a damn what their opponents credentials are, straight up or against the spread! The Ravens have been able to step up -and play down- to their competition all year long and I don’t expect anything different in the nightcap.
The Ravens win somewhat handily, 24-10, and the talk of a Har-Brawl is heated by halftime.
***Check back in on Friday for the Fab Five, but until then Eat, Drink and Be Merry my men! -Fireman Mike
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