The Chargers are catching fire at just the right time, with back-to-back wins against Tennessee and at Houston, and I look for them to keep the hot streak going and move to .500 by taking down their AFC West rivals on Monday night.
The Chargers are averaging 33 points per game at home this season, and they’re averaging 26.6 points per game overall this season, which ranks fifth in the NFL.
Will there be any rust coming off of a bye week? Not hardly, given the defense they’re going up against.
Denver is 29th in the league in points allowed per game at 28.0. True enough, that’s inflated some by the 59 they gave up to Oakland, but take that out, and they’re surrendering 24.1 points per game in their other eight games, which is nothing to write home about.
The Broncos are in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed per game (19th - 229.8), touchdown passes allowed (t-22nd - 16), passer rating against (28th - 97.9), and yards allowed per pass attempt (29th - 7.9).
And this is the part where I mention that they’re going up against one of the league’s most prolific passers in Philip Rivers, who’s thrown for 2,944 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. Many quarterbacks would struggle when faced with being without several top targets, whether due to injury or insolence, but Rivers has kept firing away, and with great success at that.
If you’re a fantasy owner, Rivers is already a must-start, but this matchup could make you a surefire winner this week, and all the same, if you’re an NFL betting enthusiast, it could make you a surefire winner all the same.
Statistically, the Chargers actually have one of the best pass defenses in the league, but overall, they’re not exactly keeping teams from putting points on the board, so the Broncos should be able to score some points themselves on Monday night.
It won’t be enough to keep the Chargers from a third straight win, but it will be enough to help this one hit the over.
SCORE PREDICTION: San Diego 34, Denver 20
PICK: San Diego/Denver OVER 50.5 (Strength Rating: 9/10)
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