NFL Rantings Calls the 2009 Season (NFC Edition)

If you have not read the NFL Rantings AFC Preview, here is a description of the methodology I use to make the predictions:To get a more complete picture of the NFL season, I used two different types of projections. The first one is your standard subjective, run-through of the schedule where every team is picked. Teams are ranked in their division by this method. This is also how I decided who my picks for the playoffs would be, since many potential outcomes of the NFL season are determined by scheduling occurrences and tiebreakers.But to determine the strength of each team, and to remove as much bias as possible from the process, I created a formula to power rank each of the 32 teams. The formula is 75% adjusted "QDS" (quality depth plus starters) which is a simple count of the number of pro bowl quality players on a roster PLUS the number of positions at which the team is stacked with starting quality talent throughout the depth chart. This number was adjusted to fit on a "wins" scale of 0-16. The formula is also 25% an average of the last five years of the team's Pythagorean records, a measure of past strength. I settled on 3 parts current roster, and 1 part historical strength because it felt right to me, but I might need to polish up this method as the season goes on.Teams will have their "power" ranking and projected win total next to their preview. Because this number is NOT schedule adjusted, it has no bearing on the order of the teams in the divisions. Only how good you can expect the teams to be.Without further delay, here are the division-by-division results from the NFC:East1. New York Giants (Win Projection: 9.6; NFL Rank: 7)Any of three teams could conceivably win the NFC East, who have the 5th, 6th, and 7th teams in my power poll. I'm going to go with the Giants, though, who avoided a particularly difficult first-place schedule, and figure to have one of the most dominant defensive units in the NFL this year.The Giants have big questions to answer on offense this year. Where has the running game been the last two preseason games? Where are those young, talented receivers and what does Eli Manning have to do to get some help? Can the OL stay healthy again? The Giants have plenty of competition for this spot, primarily from the Redskins and Eagles.2. Washington Redskins (Win Projection: 9.7; NFL Rank: 6)There are a lot of signs that point to the Redskins being the team that no one is predicting to win the NFC that gives it a run. No NFC team improved as much in the offseason, for one thing. But that's not new for the Redskins, so the concerns for this team have to do with the finish of last year's team. How far exactly did the Redskins fall last year? How deep do the problems in the secondary run? What is the ceiling for this offense: even if it does improve, can it reach the levels the Redskins coaches expect from it?In support of the notion that the Redskins might actually rout the NFC East this year, no team has been better in the preseason from this division, and no team has made it through the last month healthier, which has always slowed the Redskins in the past.3. Philadelphia Eagles (Win Projection:10.29; NFL Rank: 5)This Eagles team isn't quite as good as it's past history makes that win projection look, but they'll be right in the thick of the division race. I don't think they've been quite as impressive as the Redskins this preseason, in fact, you can say they've struggled, and no one is quite sure yet how Michael Vick is supposed to help this team win.The Eagles have a lot of things they need to figure out before they become an elite team in the NFC, but in this way, the continued suspension of Vick might actually help the Eagles: they get to sort out some of their larger issues before trying to figure out how to work Vick in to a winning organization.4. Dallas Cowboys (Win Projection: 8.4; NFL Rank: 12)The 12th best team in the NFL? Cowboys fans will take it. 8-9 wins doesn't get you very far in this division, but in all honesty, it might be all this Cowboys team is capable of. It's not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination, they would probably be the favorite in the NFC South, for example, but in the NFC East, they really aren't even that much of a wild card threat.I think Jason Garrett is disciplined enough as a coordinator to stick with the running game and limit Tony Romo's interception total in the process, but a lot of how good the Cowboys can be has to do with the defense. This year, if the Cowboys are as good as they think they can be, the defense is going to score a lot of points.South1. New Orleans Saints (Win Projection: 8.2; NFL Rank: 16)According to the power rankings, three teams have a realistic shot at the NFC South title and playoff spot. I'm proud of the objective system for figuring this out, but unfortunately, it picked the wrong teams. So I'm going with the Saints to win the thing, partially because of the schedule, partially due to Gregg Williams at defensive coordinator, and entirely because of Drew Brees.2. Atlanta Falcons (Win Projection: 5.8; NFL Rank: 27)It would not be a stretch to call Atlanta the underdog in the NFC South. They scored a 7 in QDS, which would make them a bad team, except that Matt Ryan is STILL making the NFL his personal playground into this season, and while Ryan was one of the few quality players on the Falcons' roster, if he's even better than last year (and you have to at least give him the shot), then the Falcons are not going to be worse than 8-8 this year, regardless of defensive play.Now, the defense did look very bad against the Chargers. It will probably be the team's achillies heel this year. But if the running game is even a shell of it's former self, and Ryan continues to carve up defenses this year, the Falcons will win more than 6 games.3. Carolina Panthers (Win Projection: 8.2; NFL Rank: 15)Moving over to a team that has NOT been very good in the preseason, the Panthers' defense really appears to be missing Ma'ake Kemoeatu, lost for the season with an achillies injury. But the team had to be satisfied with Jake Delhomme's day throwing the football in the third preseason game, and DeAngelo Williams continues to provide highlight reel runs.The problem is that last year, the Panthers showed in the preseason that they were a stacked roster, and rode that depth to the NFC South division title. This year, they aren't nearly as deep, and if the defense can be gashed by the run this easily, it's going to be a very long seven win season for the Panthers.4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Win Projection: 8.3; NFL Rank: 13)Believe it or not, the Bucs have the best statistical projection of any team in this division, although they are the one team who probably can't win it. The last two years, the Bucs have scored a 9.0 and a 10.0 in Pythagorean wins, and this isn't a markedly worse team this year, which gives you an 8.3 win projection.Tampa did draw the tough schedule: I have both Green Bay and Seattle winning their divisions. That alone probably takes them out of the "division winner" discussion, but if Atlanta ends up being a 6 win team this year, and the Bucs can beat the Panthers twice, a 2nd place finish for the Bucs is not unreasonable.North1. Green Bay Packers (Win Projection: 8.0; NFL Rank: 17)The NFC North is going to be a very tight division this year: you have three teams with pretty high "floors". Compare that to the NFC South, where the Panthers are regressing and the Falcons and Bucs could be limited to 6 wins each, and you get more of a de-facto winner, you can pretty much pencil the Bears, Packers, and Vikings in for 7+ wins each.So why the Packers, even with the Bears having a slight statistical advantage? When in doubt, go with the team with the most homegrown talent. That's certainly not the Vikings, and I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that Aaron Rodgers > Jay Cutler, at least this season.2. Chicago Bears (Win Projection: 8.3; NFL Rank: 14)If the Bears can get another great special teams year from Devin Hester, this is a super bowl contender. If not, they are still a good division contender behind their best defense in the last three years--a dominant front seven and developing secondary--and of course Jay Cutler.How about that Cutler? Got to see the Bears-Broncos game yesterday, and for the first quarter and a half, Cutler looked lost and confused. Then, in his final drive, Cutler flawlessly took the Bears 98-yards for a scoring drive that ate all the remaining time in the first half. It was just a single well-executed drive, and yet, at the end of it, Cutler's numbers looked just like they always have. It was a very expected performance, and he came through in a hostile environment.3. Minnesota Vikings (Win Projection: 6.7; NFL Rank: 23)Brett Favre will play a half tonight in Houston. That's nice.The Vikings have a low win projection because 1) they have virtually no depth anywhere, and 2) there are a couple of 6-7 win seasons in recent memory. I fully expect the Vikings to win 7+ games, but I think there's a gap between them and a playoff caliber team, and I don't think it's a gap that can be covered by a 40 year old Brett Favre.4. Detroit Lions (Win Projection: 5.1; NFL Rank: 30)Can the Lions compete in this division? I think they can: they seem to have made the necessary offensive and defensive changes to avoid being an embarrassing team, which is, of course, the first step to respectability. With that said, no team in the NFL is more likely to finish in last place this year than the Lions, because it looks like they need to go 3-3 in the NFC North to be able to pull themselves out of last place. In this division, that's asking a lot. Can the Lions go undefeated at home in the division? If they do, it's safe to say they were better than I thought they would be, and that they very much earned whatever spot they finished in.West1. Seattle Seahawks (Win Projection: 8.8; NFL Rank: 11)The Seahawks seem poised for a major rebound, though, I'm going to make you keep reading to see just how far they can go. I like both their defense and their offense this year, and actually think 8.8 wins is a little bit low: by my count, they scored 12-4 in a weak division via the tried and true scheduling method.Look for difference makers Brandon Mebane, and Aaron Curry to make big impacts for the Seahawks this year.2. St. Louis Rams (Win Projection: 4.4; NFL Rank: 32)The Rams have the worst projection of any team by the system I have been using, but you can't really conclude that they are the worst team in the league from that. If you asked me, I'd probably bet on the worst team being the Bills, 49ers, Chiefs, or Broncos. Not the Rams. So consequently, despite a tougher-than-you'd-think schedule, I have the Rams making a push for .500, despite their lack of pro bowl talent and recent success.I fully expect this projection to just whiff because the things it's grading the Rams on in the Scott Linehan era simply don't apply here.3. Arizona Cardinals (Win Projection: 9.1; NFL Rank: 9)Yes, I do expect last year's super bowl team from the NFC to finish third in a weak division, and no, I don't have any reason to believe the projection is wrong. I don't think they will win 9 games this year as an encore to last year's 9 win season, but the Cardinals' current roster is way more talented than it's past performance suggests.What that usually entails is a significant regression as an NFL season wears on that roster. That puts the Cardinals under a ton of pressure in the first 6-7 games to get off to a 5-1 or 6-1 start. For the Cardinals to return to the playoffs, they have to ride their playoff success to a few early-season wins in 2009. Otherwise, they have no competitive advantage over any other team, and a mediocre start from a potentially mediocre team often indicates a mediocre finish.4. San Francisco 49ers (Win Projection: 5.7; NFL Rank: 28)This is not a very good team right now. The best quarterback on this roster might very well be rookie 5th round draft pick Nate Davis.The 49ers are expecting a huge jump from their defense this year, and it would be a large disappointment, considering all the resources they have invested in it, if they did not get to that next level. In what figures to be an otherwise lost season, it would be a major black mark on the young career of Mike Singletary if the defense moves backwards after the step forward it took last season.Playoff PredictionsThe wild card weekend sets up as follows, according to the results of my predictions:Redskins vs. SaintsBears vs. GiantsThe Saints still strike me as a very flawed team, and though I believe they still have all the tools to make it to Miami this year, they'll inevitably face a very tough playoff road, and in this instance, lose in the first round. The Bears are a much stronger playoff threat, and the fact is that outside of 2007, the Giants have not been a very good postseason team. They'll fall short this year, which sets up a divisional round of:Redskins vs. PackersBears vs. SeahawksThis would be way more interesting if the Redskins played the Seahawks and the Bears faced the Packers, but as I see it, the NFC North will fall at this point in the playoffs, setting up an East-West battle for the NFC Championship.Redskins vs. SeahawksI like the Redskins this year, but not nearly enough to win three consecutive road games to go to the super bowl. If the Seahawks get homefield advantage in the regular season, and the probability of that happening is as strong as with any other team, they'll ride that advantage to Super Bowl XLIV.Your Super Bowl 44 match-up: Seattle and Indianapolis.