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Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 18 Best Teaser: Once more with feeling

By Jared Shlensky | Last updated 1/5/23

We can't believe we're saying this, but here we are ... the final NFL teaser of the regular season. After a slow start to the season, we've hit on a season-best six straight teasers and nine of our last 11. Last week's teaser is technically considered a win since the Bengals (+7) was voided after Monday's game was declared a no contest against the Bills. However, our other leg — the under of 48 points between Arizona and Atlanta — did hit, so essentially, our teaser becomes a one-leg "single" bet. And again, that leg won, therefore making the teaser a win, too.

We'd like to tell you our confidence level is as high as ever this week, but that'd be a lie. The last week of the regular season is always tricky because you don't know which teams are going to go all-out to win. Some teams are going to rest their starters to get ready for the playoffs, and other teams are already thinking about next season, and simply don't care what happens this week. To be honest, some teams — like the Chicago Bears — might want to lose in order to move up in the NFL Draft.

But that's not going to stop us from placing one last regular-season teaser. Las Vegas looked great last week against San Francisco, and always seem to play Kansas City tough, so we love the Raiders (+15) on the teaser against the Chiefs. Josh McDaniels chose to bench Derek Carr for Jarrett Stidham last week against the 49ers, and even though Las Vegas lost in overtime, Stidham looked really good. Yes, we know Kansas City has a ton to play for on Sunday. After all, all the Chiefs just need to win to secure the top seed in the AFC, but don't expect that to come easy.

The Raiders lost to the Chiefs by just one point back in October, and only one of their 10 losses have been by more than two scores. Even though the Raiders are 6-10, one thing is certain, they're damn good at covering the spread as underdogs in teaser bets, and don't expect that to change in Week 18. Three of the last five games between these two teams have been one-score games, and don't be shocked if that's the case again on Saturday. Ten of the Chiefs' 13 wins this season have been by 15 points or less, and that's what we expect to see on Saturday in this AFC West showdown.

As for the final leg of our teaser, take the Houston Texans (+8.5) via the teaser against the Indianapolis Colts. We know Houston secures the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft with a loss, but we're far from convinced the Colts are a lock to win this one. Lovie Smith is not the type of coach who just gives away a game just because it would make the Texans better long term, and in case you haven't seen the Colts lately, well, let's just say they're not very good.

Three weeks ago, Indianapolis blew a 33-point lead — the largest in NFL history — to the Vikings, and has lost its last two games by at least 17 points. And to make matters worse, the Colts have dropped six straight and are down to their third-string quarterback in Sam Ehlinger after benching Matt Ryan earlier in the season, and losing Nick Foles last week to a rib injury.

Meanwhile, Houston upset Tennessee two weeks ago, and tied the Colts back in Week 1. Look, it's no secret both these teams are bad, but if we're confident in one thing, it's that this game will be a one-score contest. Predicting how many points will be scored in this one is equally as hard as picking an outright winner, but seeing how bad this season has gone for Indianapolis considering how high expectations were to start the season, we just can't trust Indy at all.

The Teaser: Las Vegas Raiders (+9) to (+15) AND Houston Texans (+2.5) to (+8.5) (-103 odds via Barstool)

Bet $103 to win $100

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