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Super Bowl LVII pick and preview

By Chris Mueller | Last updated 2/9/23

It isn’t always, or even necessarily often that the NFL playoffs produce a Super Bowl matchup that just feels right and just. This year, though, fans get to see exactly that. The Eagles have looked like the league’s most complete team, top-to-bottom, all season long. They have the best roster, a quarterback who’s almost certain to finish as the runner-up in the MVP voting, and enviable strength and skill across both lines, to say nothing of their loaded skill group. They overwhelmed the Giants, then did the same thing to the 49ers once Brock Purdy left with an injury. Philly has been beaten at full strength just once all season. That brings us to the Chiefs. Man for man, up and down the line, Philadelphia is better, with one very notable exception:

His name is Patrick Mahomes. Kind of a big deal.

As great as Jalen Hurts has been, Mahomes operates on a different level than everyone else. He’s been a model of efficiency this season, eschewing the deep passes that were his bread and butter when Tyreek Hill was around and instead carving teams up with ruthless efficiency near the line of scrimmage. His ankle is not 100 percent, but it should be much better than it was against Cincinnati two weeks ago in the AFC Championship Game. Kansas City’s offensive line is good, not great, but as long as Mahomes can move around and extend plays, he should be able to neutralize Philadelphia’s sack-happy pass rush. Plus, one assumes that Andy Reid, with a few weeks to scheme for the Eagles, will have some blitz-beaters cooked up. The Chiefs’ defense doesn’t seem a match for Philly’s multi-faceted offense, but so long as Mahomes is operating at his usual level, the goal for Steve Spagnuolo’s unit is more to slow down rather than stifle.

In any event, we’ve waited long enough. Let’s get to the game.

Point spreads are from DraftKings.com and are current as of 11 a.m. Thursday.

NOTE: Pick with spread is in bold

Last week: 0-2 (Season: 137-142-4)

SUPER BOWL LVII

KANSAS CITY (16-3) VS PHILADELPHIA (16-3) (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET)

TV: FOX LINE: Philadelphia -1.5

If you’re looking for a wild card in this game, it might sound strange to mention Chris Jones, but here we are. Most of the focus has been on one of the following subplots: Andy Reid going against his former team, Patrick Mahomes looking to join the ranks of the immortals in just his fifth season as a starter, Jalen Hurts’ chance to emphatically prove his doubters wrong, and hey did you know, the Travis and Jason Kelce are brothers? Lost in all that is the fact that outside of Mahomes, Jones is probably the most dominant player on either roster. He was a massive problem for the Bengals. If he can get the better of his matchups with Jason Kelce, Landon Dickerson, and the rest of the Eagles' offensive line, it will make things considerably more difficult for Hurts and the rest of that offense, even considering Hurts’ running prowess. Conversely, if Jones is held in check, the Eagles are very well-equipped to dominate Kansas City’s defense the same way they’ve dominated everyone else.

We know about Philly’s offense. We know about their defense, too, particularly their defensive line and secondary. That secondary is interesting, though. Collectively, they’re a very aggressive, talented group, and they’ve more or less intimidated even good quarterbacks this season. Of course, Mahomes is no mere “good” quarterback, and he’s been more judicious about taking chances this season. If he extends plays, will Philadelphia stay disciplined on the back end? Reid has to be thinking about cooking up some double moves to hit a few chunk plays because as good as Mahomes has been about beating teams with more methodical drives this season, Philly’s defensive line is too good to assume that recipe will work from start to finish in this game. Kansas City’s ability to get a handful of big plays, or lack thereof, feels like it will go a long way toward determining the outcome of this one.

Look smart to your friends:

-Marques Valdes-Scantling is someone outside the realm of the big-name stars to watch in this game. Valdes-Scantling is Kansas City’s best deep threat, and he’s coming off an AFC Championship Game that saw him catch 6 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown. He’s bidding for his third-straight postseason game with a touchdown catch.

-Looking for a potential game-changing disruptive force who could go a long way towards slowing down Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense? May I present to you Javon Hargrave? The stout defensive tackle had career highs in sacks (11) and tackles for loss (10) this season and recorded a sack in the NFC Championship Game.

The pick: Chiefs 34 Eagles 30

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