Originally posted on The Football Fan Spot  |  Last updated 11/22/12
Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) One of the most powerful trends applies to road favorites after a bye. Since 2002, teams are 44-15 ATS as road favorites right after a bye, including 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye. I only heavily bet on this trend when the road favorite deserves to be favorites, but here the Titans do. Using the yards per play differential method computing of line value, the Titans should be 1.5 point favorites and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method says the Titans should be 1 point favorites. We’re getting a bit of line value with the Jaguars, but not enough to combat that trend. The Titans aren’t a very good team at 4-6, with a -91 points differential. Only Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City have a points differential worse than them. However, even sub .500 teams are 9-4 ATS as road favorites since 2002. And the Jaguars are so bad that the Titans do deserve to be road favorites. They are -1.1 in yards p...
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