The Draft: The Final Verdict

I started writing this post Sunday night when the draft had finished and thought better of it. I wanted to first get an idea of what the other experts were saying about the overall draft but realized, well, that's kind of pointless in the end. There have been such disparate grades handed out for the Patriots that it's hard to even know what the general consensus on the Patriots' draft is now, let alone how any of these players are actually going to turn out in two, three years. So I'm guarded about grading the draft. I think there were good and bad moves. Good? Setting up to pick up two more second round picks next year. As I wrote ad nauseum before the draft when discussing the 3-4, the Patriots have been in Moneyball-esque mode for years: finding value where other teams discount it. It used to be the DE/OLB that the 3-4 thrives on that the 4-3 has no use for. Now? It's simply the systemic overestimating of the value of first round picks. Now, I think in terms of general value, the first rounders are worth more than second rounders. But they tie up an awful lot of money. The money commanded by first rounders is, on average, nearly 11 million guaranteed. Now, obviously the top 5 or 6 guys seriously weigh that down on the high end and there are certainly tiers of value where you can get a player (more on this below) for less than you should have to pay him for his talent level. Still, 11 million is nothing to sniff at and it's unquestionably a higher amount than second round picks without much difference in overall ability. Do you have to stomach more off-field concerns or past injury history with second rounders vs. first rounders? yeah, but if you do your scouting correctly and dont' get overwowed by combine numbers (or look for guys who are better football players than their measurables suggest) you will find those diamonds in the rough eventually. So I'm not going to comment on individual players drafted (though I'm very happy with the draft overall, Tate is the only character risk and he's explosive enough to warrant it and the rest of the group seems like good, versatile, tough football players and standup people to boot--a very Belichick group of rooks) The Bad? The constant trading down. Michael Oher falling to the Patriots at 23 was a blessing. He's nearly as polished a tackle as Monroe or Smith but he's got more raw talent than either, in my opinion, and just needs time. He's only been playing football since he was 16 and was barely in school before that. Read Michael Lewis' phenomenal book The Blind Side to get a better idea of his upbringing. I've heard people suggest that the book, and especially the family's generosity in bringing in Oher, seems impossible. I say it's Michael Lewis, he's one of the best in the business. If there was a shady deal going on funnelling Oher to Ole Miss, he would've rooted it out. Still, the Patriots are in the perfect position to let a guy like that succeed. They have a half-opening at Right Tackle if Kascur doesn't improve and, if Oher doesn't beat him out he'll just have time to develop and work his way into the lineup in a year or two, which is exactly what he needs. The Patriots could've got the best OL project in the draft for peanuts compared to where he could've gone and balked, trading out of the pick. So basically, I like the stockpiling of second rounders and placing value on them if there's nobody in the draft you really like enough to pay first-round money but, at the same time, I'm confused how you can't see the value of a guy like Oher at 23 when he easily could've gone in the top half of the draft. I'm divided overall and I'll say I'm in wait-and-see mode. I think Tate might have personal problems since he tested positive for Marijuana at the Combine, of all places, but he'll be a big help on punt and kick returns. I like Chung and Butler for the defensive backfield, especially, and Brace provides good depth if the unthinkable happens to Wilfork. But again, who knows what will come for these players. Then again, that's half the fun.