45-52-6. **** rolls downhill, or so they tell me. Three straight weeks have been .500 or worse in the picks, with last week’s 4-8-1 debacle wrapping it all up in a little bowtie. But I’ve noticed something over the past years. The weeks where I pour over lines, study matchups, and keep a watch on all the movement for every spread, I completely tank. On the weeks that I simply glance at the line, take my first instinct, and write one short line for each pick, I tear **** up (or at least stay well above .500). Guess what this week’s post is going to look like?
Disclaimer: Gambling on sports is illegal unless you are in Las Vegas, Delaware or Atlantic City. Also, if I’m horribly incorrect with these picks – as I have occasionally been in the past – I’m sorry in advance. If you can’t afford to lose, don’t play. John Anthony – “The Million Dollar Man with the Billion Dollar Plan” – is not a real person. All lines from Bodog or **SBRForum** are accurate as of the time this was typed – 9pm Thursday. Home teams in CAPS. That about covers it.)
Bye Weeks: Falcons / Bears / Bucs / Packers / Raiders / Jets
**Colts (+9) over TITANS**: Because NFL teams don’t just roll over and play dead for two straight weeks, especially not in division games.
TEXANS (-10) over Jaguars: Because the Jags played their best game of the season last week, and still only scored 12 points.
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Vikings: Because Cam Newton might rack up 500 yards of offense all by himself.
Saints (-14) over RAMS: Because the Saints could score 60+ in back-to-back weeks.
RAVENS (-13) over Cardinals: Because I don’t have any money left to waste on the Ravens this year, so of course they’ll cover in a blowout.
Dolphins (+10) over GIANTS: Because I remember the Seahawks game in the Meadowlands three weeks ago.
BILLS (-6) over Redskins: Because Buffalo is going to go 8-0 at home this season, and still miss the playoffs.
**BRONCOS (+3) over Lions**: Because the Lions are already thinking about their bye week.
Patriots (-3) over STEELERS: Because my luck is running so cold, the Patriots are probably only going to lose one game this season – the week I picked them for an Eliminator pool.
49ERS (-9) over Browns: Because the Niners are actually, surprisingly, really good this year.
SEAHAWKS (+3) over Bengals: Because Seattle is a really, really hard place for young teams to play.
EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys: Because this line feels like a push, which is possibly the stupidest thing I’ve “Predicted” in months.
CHARGERS (-4) over Chiefs: Because the Chargers can’t possibly collapse against an inferior opponent for two straight weeks, right?
RECAP: Colts / PANTHERS / TEXANS / Saints / RAVENS / Dolphins / BILLS / BRONCOS / Patriots / 49ERS / SEAHAWKS / EAGLES / CHARGERS
Best Multi-Team Bet: Just realized how many home teams I’m backing this week… yikes. Anyway, Pick up the Money lines on the Ravens (can’t believe I’m saying that again), 49ers, Texans and Saints. Should be fine. If you’re looking for a safe teaser, pump Indy up to +15 and the Bills down to a Pick-‘Em. Neither Tennessee nor Washington have the offenses to stick around and cover those numbers.