The "Risk Averse" NFL

Fourth quarter of the Eagles-49ers game on Sunday, 1:14 remaining. Philly is up 30-26, and has a 4th and 1 on the SF 11. San Fran has no timeouts left, so the Eagles have two options:

Go for it: Make it 70% of the time, win every time you do that. Don't make it 30% of the time, there's a 1 in 15 chance the 49ers drive it down the field and win. You win 98% of the time.

Kick it: Even assuming you make the FG, probably about a 1 in 10 chance SF scores and ties it. Say you lose 50% of the time in OT. You win 95% of the time.

Let me be clear that I'm aware these are far from accurate assumptions. David Akers certainly isn't 100% on 28-yard FGs. And it's been pointed out that, with McNabb behind center against a tired defense, the Eagles probably convert the fourth down over 70% of the time.

But those two facts only serve to support the point--you have to go for it there. Since we're talking about the risk-averse NFL, Andy Reid of course brought Akers out, and he made the kick. The 49ers ended up getting to midfield, but O'Sullivan threw a pick and that was that.

What Reid did isn't a "risk-averse" decision in the true sense of the term though. There are only two possible results; losing in OT is no better than losing in regulation. So there's really no risk adjustment to make. The decision to go for it there has no upside, as all it does is increase your chances of losing.

Reid's decision had nothing to do with any of this, of course. He probably just viewed kicking the FG as the "safe" thing to do. Because not only does he have to worry about winning the game, he also has to cover his ass, and right or wrong, he's going to take a lot more heat if he goes for it, fails, and ends up losing the game. Even if it was the right decision.

I'm sure this kind of stuff happens all the time; I only noticed this one because, well, the 49ers were +4.5, and Akers' FG allowed the Eagles to cover. If I was an owner, this would concern me, although I'm not sure what you could do about it. It just seems like there's too much money at stake to allow such obvious, and important, decisions to be made incorrectly.

Photo: Reading Eagle.