Originally written November 19, 2012 on Blitzburgh Blog:
Way back in August, I did a statistical look at how Todd Haley’s offenses have fared in past years. The results were mixed, but the only time Haley had approaching the level of offensive talent as he has had this year was in 2008 with the Super Bowl runner-up Cardinals. Now is a very good time to look at how the offense has fared so far, because with Ben Roethlisberger out for an unknown amount of time and Byron Leftwich representing a definite downgrade, that will affect the quality of the Steelers offense significantly. First, let’s look at the Steelers’ current offensive DVOA rankings through week 10: Year Offense DVOA (rank) Pass Offense (rank) Run Offense (rank) 2012 (through W10) 4.2% (16) 25.8% (9) -15.6% (27) 2011 (season) 11.4% (6) 24.3% (7) 6.6% (6)   The Steelers’ offense ranks in the middle of the pack so far, but it’s not the fault of the passing game. The rushing offense has been near the bottom of the league. In fact, the only Steelers running back with a positive DVOA as of week 10 is none other than Chris Rainey at +10.3%! The injuries have hurt, and the offensive line hasn’t fared that well (24th in run blocking with 3.83 Adjusted Line Yards per carry and 16th in pass blocking with a 6.3% Adjusted Sack Rate). You might remember this chart from August: Game HA (rank) Game HA (rank) Game HA (rank) Game HA (rank) 2008-WC .2676 (1/8) 2009-1 .2195 (13/32) 2010-1 .0963 (31/32) 2011-1 .0940 (30/32) 2008-DC .2161 (3/8) 2009-2 .1857 (21/32) 2010-2 .1808 (23/32) 2011-2 .1484 (30/32) 2008-CC .3227 (1/4) 2009-3 .1812 (20/32) 2010-3 .3052 (2/32) 2011-3 .2342 (13/32) 2008-SB .2765 (1/2) 2009-4 .0993 (28/28) 2010-5 .1502 (23/28) 2011-4 .2608 (10/32) 2009-5 .1809 (19/28) 2010-6 .2223 (11/28) 2011-5 .2862 (5/26) 2009-6 .1453 (20/28) 2010-7 .3434 (1/28) 2011-7 .1580 (17/26) 2009-7 .1042 (25/26) 2010-8 .1698 (18/26) 2011-8 .2364 (8/26) 2009-9 -.1970 (26/26) 2010-9 .1850 (19/26) 2011-9 .1713 (23/28) 2009-10 .1783 (18/30) 2010-10 .2627 (11/28) 2011-10 .1160 (31/32) 2009-11 .2296 (9/32) 2010-11 .2612 (7/32) 2011-11 .1665 (23/28) 2009-12 .1605 (26/32) 2010-12 .2511 (9/32) 2011-12 .1703 (24/32) 2009-13 .0876 (32/32) 2010-13 .1747 (24/32) 2011-13 .1415 (29/32) 2009-14 .1383 (23/32) 2010-14 .0280 (32/32) 2011-14 .1527 (26/32) 2009-15 .2524 (11/32) 2010-15 .1857 (20/32) 2009-16 .1448 (27/32) 2010-16 .2747 (8/32) 2009-17 .2437 (5/32) 2010-17 .0703 (32/32) 2010-WC .0867 (8/8) Average .2707 Average .1471 Average .1911 Average .1797   This chart shows Haley’s game-by-game coaching statistics as offensive coordinator or head coach, via QuantCoach. For those interested, his methodology in producing coaching statistics is here. Now, we have nine more games to add: Game HA (rank) 2012-1 (at DEN) .1685 (28/32) 2012-2 (vs NYJ) .2706 (8/32) 2012-3 (at OAK) .2517 (6/32) 2012-5 (vs PHI) .1647 (22/28) 2012-6 (at TEN) .2693 (7/28) 2012-7 (at CIN) .2122 (8/26) 2012-8 (vs WAS) .2185 (10/28) 2012-9 (at NYG) .2070 (16/28) 2012-10 (vs KC) .1508 (24/28) Average .2126   In looking at these stats, .2 seems to be the break-even point between a good coaching performace and a bad one. Taken somewhat simplistically and based on QuantCoach’s equation, a good play calling game adds about 1.3 yards per passing attempt. So far, it has looked a lot better in Pittsburgh for Haley’s play calling than his years in Kansas City. Of course, if he had Roethlisberger with the Chiefs, he’d probably still be coaching there. The Steelers are currently the third-best coached team (offense and defense) by the average difference between teams’ HA, according to QuantCoach’s standings. I will be interested in seeing the coaching statistics for this week and any other games the Steelers play without Roethlisberger, because one of QuantCoach’s principles behind his coaching equations is that the QB is also a play caller. There is an obvious drop-off in QB talent from Roethlisberger to Leftwich, and I think that will show up in these coaching statistics as well.
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