Originally written on isportsweb.com  |  Last updated 11/20/14
In case you missed it, I’ve just introduced sabermetrics to fantasy football. The format is easy enough: I calculate who the highest risk players are for the week, then figure out who the highest reward guys are. Factoring in both risk and reward, an overall value is calculated, with the ideal player being low risk and high reward. The math factors in carries, fantasy points, matchup and a slew of other things, but the numbers are simple. The higher the score, the better. A high-risk guy will have a very low risk score, while a low-risk player will have a high risk score. Meanwhile, a low reward will give that player a low reward score while a high reward will produce a high number. My system is based on half PPR to try and please both PPR and non-PPR players, and the highest risk players are among the top 50 or so RBs. There may be higher risk guys outside the top 50, but I’m hoping you aren’t starting them anyway. I’ve also made a few adjustments with the risk players to account for draft position. For example, the third riskiest RB this week is Ronnie Brown, but doesn’t everyone know that already? The highest reward and overall players are among the top 50, no adjustments. I’ve spent hours in the lab crunching numbers, and here’s what I got for week four running backs. Wilson has turned fantasy football teams upside down with his poor play Highest risk 1. David Wilson (-8.55) 2. C.J. Spiller (-0.36) 3. Jacquizz Rodgers (1.01) 4. Giovani Bernard (1.14) 5. Jason Snelling (1.46) 6. Ronnie Hillman (1.68) 7. Danny Woodhead (1.80) 8. Da’Rel Scott (1.81) 9. Lamar Miller (2.19) 10. Bernard Pierce (4.38) 11. Daniel Thomas (4.67) 12. Reggie Bush (5.07) 13. Ben Tate (5.70) 14. Joique Bell (5.77) 15. Ahmad Bradshaw (6.41) Highest reward 1. Adrian Peterson (49.50) 2. Marshawn Lynch (49.35) 3. DeMarco Murray (41.61) 4. Jamaal Charles (33.90) 5. Ray Rice (33.63) 6. Matt Forte (32.87) 7. C.J. Spiller (31.58) 8. Maurice Jones-Drew (30.54) 9. Knowshon Moreno (30.35) 10. Doug Martin (29.57) 11. LeSean McCoy (29.47) 12. Bernard Pierce (28.25) 13. Bilal Powell (27.93) 14. Reggie Bush (27.43) 15. Arian Foster (26.38) Overall value Forte has been Mr. consistency this year, making him a nice play against the Lions 1. Adrian Peterson (65) 2. Matt Forte (63) 3. Marshawn Lynch (58) 4. Jamaal Charles (57) 5. DeMarco Murray (56) 6. Doug Martin (54) 7. LeSean McCoy (53) 8. Darren McFadden (44) 9. Ray Rice (42) 10. Bilal Powell (41) 11. Trent Richardson (39) 12. Chris Johnson (38) 13. Maurice Jones-Drew (38) 14. Knowshon Moreno (38) 15. Pierre Thomas (34) 16. Rashard Mendenhall (33) 17. Arian Foster (33) 18. Ahmad Bradshaw (33) 19. Bernard Pierce (33) 20. Reggie Bush (33) 21. Ryan Mathews (32) 22. C.J. Spiller (31) 23. Darren Sproles (30) 24. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (29) 25. Fred Jackson (26)   Follow me on twitter @ScottPeceny for more fantasy football sabermetrics
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Could the Eagles release LeSean McCoy?

AEG: Inglewood stadium would be a terrorism target

Former Knick Anthony Mason dies at age 48

Report: Blackhawks, Caps discussed Patrick Sharp trade

Giancarlo Stanton was 'angered' over $325 million offer

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Colts, Cardinals, Cowboys interested in Adrian Peterson?

How much will Rousey and Zingano make for their fight?

Browns agree to three-year deal with Josh McCown

Bulls general manager expects Derrick Rose back in 4-6 weeks

Ray Allen reportedly will not sign with Cavaliers if he returns

Shane Vereen squashes rumor he wants $5 million per season

Kentucky raffling off Wildcats-themed motorcycle

WATCH: Montrezl Harrell throws down monster alley-oop

WATCH: Tyler Hansbrough, Festus Ezeli ejected for fight

WATCH: Russell Westbrook literally gets dent in his face

WATCH: Knicks' Alexey Shved tosses wild pass into stands

Ten players ready to make the leap in 2015

WATCH: Reggie Bush says he won't quit football

PHOTO: ECHL team will wear Dr. Seuss jerseys

Report: Baron Davis in talks to join a contending team

Earl Lloyd and basketball’s cruel February

Pirates issue statement about ISIS executioner in team hat

WATCH: Dress debate threatens to derail Brooklyn Nets’ season

NFL News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Could Eagles release LeSean McCoy?

AEG plays dirty with Inglewood stadium

Anthony Mason dies at age 48

Westbrook got dent in his cheek

Earl Lloyd and basketball’s cruel February

WATCH: Barkley rips analytics again

A-Rod: A con man returns to baseball

Bostick death threats show why some fans take sports too seriously

Russell Westbrook is surging into the MVP conversation

Five-round NFL Mock Draft

Key offseason moves for every MLB team

Rousey, Arianny Celeste get into it

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.