Found June 11, 2013 on
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Ryan McDonagh is going to be the trickiest RFA to sign.
When news broke yesterday of Roman Josi’s new contract with the Nashville Predators ($28 million over 7 years), focus immediately shifted to Ryan McDonagh. After all, McDonagh and Josi are very comparable players. They are both coming off their ELCs. They are both top-pairing defensemen. They are both arbitration eligible. Most importantly, they are both likely to receive some attention on the RFA market.
However, that is where the similarities end. Josi has just one lockout-shortened full season, and 52 games in his rookie year last year. He has put up lines of 5-11-16 and 5-13-18 in each of those seasons respectively. Meanwhile, McDonagh has an extra full season under his belt, and has a 30 point season as well. On paper, McDonagh is the more credentialed defenseman.
Another factor here is the contract Josi received. Slats never gives out second contracts of that length. In fact, the last time he gave out a second contract that was longer than two years was Marc Staal. Staal is the exception, not the rule. Now, if there’s anyone worth breaking that rule again, it is Ryan McDonagh. His career path and current accomplishments are even better than Staal’s at the time of his deal.
Since there is such a difference here, more comparable contracts need to be found. Victor Hedman of the Tampa Bay Lightning comes to mind when his ELC expired, and he $20 million over 5 years, which is the same AAV as Josi. Kris Letang of the Pittsburgh Penguins had similar numbers to McDonagh at the time his ELC expired, and he got $14 million over 4 years ($3.5 million AAV). The problem is that both of those guys signed after the 2009-2010 season when the cap was actually lower than the $64.3 million it will be this season. Those contracts may be a bit outdated, even if they do stay consistent with the market value set by Josi.
The wrench in this is the Oliver Ekman-Larsson contract out in Phoenix. OEL’s contract expired at the end of this season, and Phoenix signed him to a whopping six-year $33 million contract ($5.5 million per season). OEL had very similar numbers to McDonagh, but he has never dipped below 20 points in a season.
When it comes to McDonagh, finding a comparable contract isn’t as easy as it was with Derek Stepan. OEL is definitely the high-end of market value, but his individual value to his team is about equal to McDonagh’s value to the Rangers. Letang is probably the low-end of the spectrum, but he has a different career path than McDonagh. Josi and Hedman are the two that really steer market value to the lower-$4 million range.
One other factor to consider: Any deal over two years means that at the expiration of the new deal, McDonagh will become a UFA, not an RFA. McDonagh is currently 23 years old, and turns 24 in two days. The UFA age is still set at 27 years old, so a deal of three years or longer means buying UFA years on McDonagh. Slats is actually stuck between a rock and a hard place with McDonagh.
If he sticks with his two-year bridge deal, then Slats still gets McDonagh as an RFA when the deal expires. The problem is that McDonagh will likely command a higher AAV for a shorter deal, especially when his agent is looking at the Josi deal and thinking: “If Josi gets $4 million over seven years, and the Rangers want to sign McDonagh to a two-year deal, then Ryan should get more money because he is taking less term.” It’s just the business of the game. (For the agents in the house, the counter argument for this is that the Rangers aren’t buying UFA years. It’s tricky.)
Now if McDonagh is to sign a long-term deal, then the Rangers are buying UFA years, which is a very pricey proposition. McDonagh isn’t going to command Shea Weber or Ryan Suter money, but he is in the $6 million range if he continues to progress the way he has. In a deal like this the money is likely to be back-loaded, again like the Josi deal, to compensate for the UFA years.
For a few weeks now, I’ve been predicting McDonagh gets between $4 million and $4.5 million. That prediction stands if McDonagh gets a Slats bridge contract of two years. If he gets more years, I’d expect the AAV to be between $4.5 million and $5.5 million, depending on the number of UFA years bought out. Considering the cap crunch for next season, I’d expect McDonagh to get a bridge deal and then sign his big deal at the expiration of his second contract.
BEST OF MAXIM
Another #NYR note: Rangers and reps for RFA D Ryan McDonagh have held preliminary contract talks, but nothing serious yet
— Katie Strang (@KatieStrangESPN) June 11, 2013
McDonagh just completed a three year deal that paid him $1.3 million per year ($875K salary + $425K performance bonus + $87.5K signing bonus).
...the Rangers are notorious for playing hardball with...
Perhaps the most important task on the agenda of Glen Sather (or whomever may be calling the shots on Manhattan) this summer is extending the contract of shutdown defender Ryan McDonagh. We’ve already assessed the value of fellow RFA Derek Stepan and determined he is going to be expensive. McDonagh, given his performance through the [...]
The Rangers have five RFAs headed into the offseason. In order to qualify for offer sheet compensation, the organization must present qualifying offers to their RFAs before the start of free agency. All QOs are one year deals. Here are the salaries to be presented in the QOs:
Ryan McDonagh: $826,875
Derek Stepan: $826,875
Carl Hagelin: $660,000
Mats Zuccarello: $735,000
With Roman Josi's seven-year deal, the Predators are making a smart risk by committing a little extra money now to save more in the future...
Roman Josi likes the security of a 7-year deal and is ready to take on more responsibility...
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According to their media relations department, the Nashville Predators have re-upped defenseman Roman Josi.
Josi, 23, skated alongside two-time Norris Trophy runner-up Shea Weber last season and has been tabbed as the heir apparent to Ryan Suter.
PHOTO CREDIT: Sarah Fuqua (used with permission)
The Nashville Predators have signed defenseman Roman Josi to a seven-year, $28 million deal, tying up the other piece of their top defensive line.
General manager David Poile said in a statement Monday that signing Josi was a top priority. Poile says Josi has proven with his growth in Nashville and internationally that he is one of the NHL's best young defensemen.
After facing a tumultuous offseason in 2012, in which their two franchise-level defensemen were both free agents, the Nashville Predators have locked up their top defense pair for the next seven years.
They matched the offer sheet to restricted free agent Shea Weber, the team's captain, last July, securing his rights for the next 14 years with 110 million deal. On Monday the...
The Nashville Predators signed defenseman Roman Josi to a seven-year, $28 million contract Monday, securing the other piece of their top defensive line.
"I think last year we saw the growth in Roman almost like no other younger player we've had, probably the best comparison I could come up with is Shea Weber and Ryan Suter," general manager David Poile said. "...
Per the Tennessean's Josh Cooper:
#preds announce they've re signed Roman Josi 7 years 28 million
— JoshuaCooper (@JoshuaCooper) June 10, 2013
From the Predators' website: Continue reading "Nashville Predators ink Roman Josi to 7-year contract extension"
The Nashville Predators have signed defenseman Roman Josi to a seven-year, $28 million contract. Josi began playing professionally with Bern in 2006. Considered one of the best prospects to ever come out of Switzerland, he was selected by the Nashville Predators in the second round, 38th overall, in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft. Josi was selected to play for the Switzerland national...
Via the Nashville Predators PR Department:
“Nashville Predators President of Hockey Operations/General Manager David Poile announced today that the club has signed defenseman Roman Josi to a seven-year, $28 million contract. He will make $2.5 million in 2013-14, $3 million in 2014-15, $4 million in 2015-16, $4.25 million in 2016-17, $5 million in 2017-18, $5.25 million in 2018...
Photo by: Russell Lansford/Icon SMI
General Manager David Poile has officially scratched off one thing on his to-do list; re-sign Patric Hornqvist (completed April 30) and Roman Josi. Monday, Josi was re-signed to a 7-year, $28 million contract. According to the Press Release, Josi will make $2.5 million in '13-'14, $3 million in '14-'15, $4 million in...