NHL Atlantic Division predictions 2025-26: Which teams will beat, match or miss point projections?

The NHL preseason is underway, and the regular season is quickly approaching, with opening night set for Oct. 7.

We evaluated every team in each division, comparing their outlook to current FanDuel team points betting odds. Based on our analysis, we assessed whether those expectations seem too high, too low or about right.

• Too high: The projection is at least 5.5 points higher than our own.

• About right: The projection falls within five points (plus or minus) of our own.

• Too low: The projection is at least 5.5 points lower than our own.

Below is Yardbarker's predicted order of finish for the Atlantic Division.

1. Toronto Maple Leafs

FanDuel projection: 99.5 points | 2024-25 total: 108 points | YB projection: Too low

The projection seems directly tied to the loss of winger Mitch Marner via a summer sign-and-trade. It's a big loss, but the Leafs are still deep at basically every position. Center Auston Matthews labored through an undisclosed injury last season but scored 33 goals in 67 games. A healthy Matthews should see a production boost. Goaltender Joseph Woll's leave of absence is a concern, but he's expected to return to the team. 

2. Tampa Bay Lightning

FanDuel projection: 102.5 points | 2024-25 total: 102 points | YB projection: About right

A full season with last season's trade-deadline additions (forwards Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand) should help Tampa Bay avoid a major points drop. But it's hard to project huge regular-season upside after the Lightning got 63 games from Andrei Vasilevskiy at a save percentage of .921, his highest number since 2020-21.

3. Florida Panthers

FanDuel projection: 100.5 points | 2024-25 total: 98 points | YB projection: Too high

The reigning champions have problems big and small. On Friday, news broke that star center Aleksander Barkov (knee) is out indefinitely. Plus, the Panthers have a 37-year-old starting netminder (Sergei Bobrovsky), a backup goalie (Daniil Tarasov) off a down season, winger Matthew Tkachuk missing a chunk of time to open the season, a lack of assets to improve at the trade deadline and salary-cap complications that could require Florida to trade a mid-tier depth piece to make room for Tkachuk's return. Recent samples aren't on Florida's side either — after Tampa Bay's third straight Stanley Cup Final appearance, it went back-to-back seasons at 98 points.

4. Detroit Red Wings

FanDuel projection: 83.5 points | 2024-25 Total: 86 points | YB projection: Too low 

Detroit has been patient with its young players. Center Marco Kasper (77 games, 37 points) and defenseman Simon Edvinsson (78 games, 31 points) got their feet wet last season, and both are likely to take a step up this season. The Wings were 26-18-4 last season after Todd McLellan became head coach, a 96-point pace. The addition of John Gibson to the goalie room should help, and the Wings nearly NHL-ready prospect depth gives them injury insurance most teams do not have. 

5. Ottawa Senators

FanDuel projection: 95.5 points | 2024-25 total: 97 points | YB projection: About right

Ottawa is old in critical spots (35-year-old defenseman Nick Jensen, for example), and it's unlikely to get much from its prospect pipeline to fill potential gaps. Ottawa's group under head coach Travis Green committed to a more defensively sound system, coming in at 12th in the NHL last season in Natural Stat Trick's five-on-five high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes. But the Senators gave up some of their offensive firepower in the process. 

6. Montreal Canadiens

FanDuel projection: 90.5 points | 2024-25 total: 91 points | YB projection: About right

Count critical offseason additions of defenseman Noah Dobson and winger Zach Bolduc among the good moves by Montreal. But the Canadiens played a dangerous style of hockey (30th in five-on-five high-danger chances against per 60 minutes) under head coach Martin St. Louis last season. The Canadiens should be exciting and fun, but there's no guarantee the goaltending can keep up with the team's style of play.

7. Boston Bruins

FanDuel projection: 79.5 points | 2024-25 total: 76 points | YB projection: Too low

The Bruins are in a bit of a weird middle ground where they can't seem to decide if they're rebuilding or not, but Boston has a pretty good case for exceeding the expectations. It lost a combined 98 games to injury from its two most important defensemen (Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm) last season. That can't happen again, can it? Boston being as far out of contention as it was last season led to a trade-deadline sell-off that landed it an uncharacteristic 5-11-2 record after the deadline, second worst by points percentage in the league. Boston's 76-point catastrophe was a perfect storm. The Bruins probably are not a playoff team, but they won't be a pushover.

8. Buffalo Sabres

FanDuel projection: 87.5 points | 2024-25 total: 79 points | YB projection: Too high

Buffalo hasn't really done much to make a seven-points-or-better increase this season. The additions of two-way winger Josh Doan and defenseman Michael Kesselring weren't bad, but the Sabres haven't really shown a team-wide commitment to defend under head coach Lindy Ruff (26th by Natural Stat Trick in five-on-five high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes). They'll rely on injury-plague Josh Norris to center one of their top two lines, but he has missed 148 games in the past four seasons. All of this is backdropped by a goaltending room that doesn't look particularly stable.