Diamondbacks outfielder Jake McCarthy has found himself on the wrong side of a roster crunch for much of this season. After opening the season expected to be the everyday right fielder, he has struggled to a .245/.325/.331 triple slash in 86 games and twice been optioned to Triple-A Reno. Since August 16th McCarthy has put up excellent numbers in Reno, hitting .383 with nine doubles, two triples, five home runs, and a 1.059 OPS in 23 games. He has named the Pacific Coast League Player of the Week for August 29th-September 3rd. With those type of numbers it would seem like he's earned another opportunity to be with the big league club, but the underlying performance doesn't quite back up the numbers.
Looking beyond the impressive surface-level numbers, the batted ball data for McCarthy does not illustrate the profile of someone tearing it up in Triple-A. In his current stint, he is averaging an 85.3 MPH exit velocity on 92 balls put into play. Breaking it down further, on batted balls in the launch angle sweet spot of 8-32° he's only averaging only 84.4 MPH. That suggests there are a lot of softly-hit singles fueling a .409 average on balls put into play. His batted ball profile is fine for a center fielder, where defense is valued more, but as someone who plays in the corner outfield the lack of thump from the bat is very concerning.
Even considering the numbers he's posted in Reno, it will be tough to open up playing time for him. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tommy Pham, and Corbin Carroll are already everyday fixtures in the lineup. Alek Thomas, another left-handed hitter, has been the team's primary option in center field due to his superb glove. While Thomas has not been a particularly great hitter to start his career, with a career .235 average and .641 OPS in 223 games, his glovework in center has been enough to provide average starter value. In a case of two light-hitting outfielders, the superior defender at a tougher position will get the nod. So for McCarthy to force his way onto the roster, he needed to be crushing the ball in the batted ball data as well.
Even with the lack of power, there still may be a potential need for the speedy outfielder should the D-backs make the postseason. McCarthy ranks in the 98th percentile in Sprint Speed and has compiled +2 runs of baserunning runs thanks to being successful on 26 of 29 stolen base attempts. In a game where every 90 feet becomes hard-fought, having that kind of speed and baserunning instincts could give the D-backs a potential edge. While postseason eligibility is not an issue, the question will be if it's better to get him 15-20 at-bats against major league pitchers instead of the 65-70 he'd get playing in Reno.
In order to free up space on the roster, someone has to be sent down to Reno. The obvious player would be Pavin Smith, who hasn't quite lived up to his Top 10 draft selection pedigree. Despite a 15% walk rate and a somewhat interesting batted ball profile, Smith has struggled to a .184 average and a .635 OPS this season. In a situation where the team is looking for a fifth outfielder to put on the postseason roster, a player with the ability to change the game on the basepaths may prove to be more valuable.
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