Future of the Rockies: The Nolan Jones Breakout

The good of Nolan Jones 

First off, the price to get the lefty was relatively low. Brito is just 21 years old and the Guardians’ No. 13 prospect, but the depth of the farm system for the Rockies is already filled with middle infielders. Taking a flyer on Jones was an understandable move at the time and with hindsight it already looks much better. 

As for the aforementioned on-field production, he is slashing .279/.359/.493 with 15 extra-base hits and 17 RBI, good for a .852 OPS and 118 OPS+. Being one of the few hitters in the Rockies’ lineup to be an above-average hitter, that certainly is something to take note of. 

Jones is a strong player with a strong swing out of his 6-foot-4-inch stature. With a 92nd percentile max exit velocity and 100th percentile arm strength, he knows how to utilize his skills. Over a full season of games, he would be on pace for nearly 30-home runs and 30 doubles.

One aspect that has taken a significant jump in his game is his ability to hit both the sinker and slider. In his small sample size in 2022 with the Guardians, he put up a -2 run value on the slider and a -1 run value on the sinker. Now in 2023, he has turned those into his best pitches, valuing at a run value of 4 against the sinker and 3 against the slider. 

The bad of Nolan Jones 

No player is perfect. That case remains the same with Jones, as the left-handed batter is a prototypical strong power bat in the bad ways as well, with a 33.0% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate. While the walk rate is not the worst in the league by any means, his strikeout rate is far from ideal. 

He is also not one who thrives attacking early in the count. When swinging at the first pitch, he is just 3-for-18 and, without an extra-base hit and ending those at-bats with nine strikeouts, a .377 OPS. 

Future with the franchise? 

As a 25-year-old with a defined skillset with clear weaknesses and strengths, as long as Jones can produce at the same rate he is so far in 2023, his role with the team fits the timeline of the prospects. A majority of the top Rockies’ prospects are in their early 20’s, including 2023 first-round pick Chase Dollander. 

If those prospects make the anticipated developments to be big-league producers in the next half-decade, Jones can be the perfect middle-of-the-order hitter in a playoff lineup. Much of that relies on consistent production, development of a pitching staff and contracts, but Jones’ 2023 season, no matter what, brings some hope to Colorado.