Projecting the contracts of the 2016-17 MLB free agents.
Prediction: Two years, $12 million
Alvarez had to settle for a one-year, $5.75 million deal in spring training with the Orioles and has hit well in a strict platoon for the team with an OPS above .800. The O's have used him a few times at third base, but he's played most of the time at DH. A strong DH market could limit Alvarez's attractiveness again.
Prediction: Three years, $75 million
Bautista made headlines in spring training when it was reported that he was demanding a contract greater than five years, $150 million from Toronto. He has the most home runs in baseball since 2010 but heads into free agency after what's clearly his worst season since his 2010 breakout with a sub-.800 OPS as of mid-September. Teams could be nervous about his breakdown entering his age 36 season, not to mention the enemies he's made around the league for his gregarious behavior.
Prediction: Two years, $20 million
Beltran could hit in his sleep, apparently. He's rebounded to have a near-elite season between the Yankees and Texas, with an OPS above .850 in his age 39 season. The teams have used him plenty in the outfield, but he likely best fits at DH as he looks toward age 40.
Prediction: Four years, $60 million
Cashner is fortunate to be approaching a barren market for starting pitching. In almost any other year he'd be an after thought, but the hard-throwing right-hander has a chance to get a big contract from a desperate team. He's been awful since joining the Marlins, with an ERA above 6.00, and last had a sub-4.00 ERA in 2014. Still, teams have to be intrigued by his high velocity and past success.
Prediction: Two years, $16 million
Casilla is far from elite, but he's held down the fort as San Francisco's closer off and on since 2012. He still brings consistent mid-90s velocity and has posted his best strikeout rate this season. His home run issues this season are a concern, but there's enough experience closing that he should maintain the role and a nice contract going into his age 36 season.
Prediction: Seven years, $170 million
Cespedes can opt out of his three-year, $75 million contract that he signed with the Mets last offseason, and he seems likely to do so after arguably another career year. He'd be the prize of the free agent market and therefore would seem unlikely to have to settle for such a short contract. The crosstown rival Yankees have Mark Teixeira coming off the books and could have their sights set on the soon-to-be 31-year-old.
Prediction: Six years, $100 million
Chapman is arguably the best relief pitcher to ever hit free agency, which is really saying something. He's having another incredible year, splitting time between the Yankees and Cubs with a sub-2.00 ERA for the second straight season and nearly 14 strikeouts per nine innings. It's worth noting that he was suspended 30 games at the beginning of the season for a domestic violence incident, but that won't prevent the fire-balling lefty from earning a record-breaking contract for a closer.
Prediction: One year, $10 million
Colon is beginning to resemble the Energizer Bunny, still going at age 43. He's been the most consistent pitcher in an otherwise young Mets rotation this season, staying healthy while the team's young rotation went up and down. He made the All-Star Game and continues to be a No. 2-quality starter while basically just throwing his fastball. It's almost impossible to fathom a multiyear contract at Colon's age, but it could happen with such a bleak free agent market for starting pitchers.
Prediction: Five years, $75 million
Desmond transitioned from shortstop to the outfield during spring training, and his bat responded without the pressure of playing shortstop. His batting average has fully rebounded after hitting only .233 last season, and he should get some AL MVP votes for his contribution to the Rangers. Now playing outstanding outfield defense and just in his early 30s, Desmond should be rewarded handsomely in his second straight year of free agency.
Prediction: Five years, $125 million
Encarnacion has now hit at least 34 home runs in five consecutive seasons and is likely to also extend his streak to five straight seasons with an OPS above .900. Simply put, he's one of the game's elite hitters and still has plenty left in the tank going into his age 34 season. A history of minor back issues could concern teams, and Encarnacion is better positioned as a DH than first baseman. Still, power of Encarnacion's ability is quite scarce.
Prediction: Four years, $60 million
Fowler had a disappointing free agent market last offseason and nearly signed with Baltimore before coming back to the Cubs on a one-year deal. He's having one of his best seasons, even though he's taken a dive in the second half with a batting average near .240. Fowler's lack of steals is also a concern, now in his early 30s, but his strong defense and on-base skills still make him one of the most attractive free agent position players.
Prediction: Three years, $36 million
Hellickson has revitalized his value this season in Philadelphia, posting a sub-4.00 ERA for the first time since 2012. He's shown the best control since his rookie season, but there are still some scary signs in his numbers. Hellickson has still struggled with the long ball, and the ERA indicators show an ERA above 4.00. Fortunately for Hellickson, teams will be desperate for starters this offseason.
Prediction: Four years, $75 million
Hill settled for a one-year, $6 million contract last offseason for the opportunity to remain a starter. It's safe to say the lefty will get significantly more money this offseason after pitching like an ace between the A's and Dodgers. He missed about two months with blister issues, but Hill has a sub-2.00 ERA and more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings at age 36.
Prediction: Five years, $85 million
If Aroldis Chapman is No. 1 in the closer market, Jansen is 1-B. He's a legitimate NL Cy Young candidate, posting a sub-2.00 ERA and K/BB ratio above 10.00 for the second consecutive season. Like Mariano Rivera, Jansen relies on just one pitch but has been nearly impossible to hit over his career with nearly 14 strikeouts per nine innings and has barely walked anyone over the last two seasons. Some might consider Jansen a safer bet than Chapman since he doesn't rely as much on velocity.
Prediction: Four years, $65 million
Melancon isn't your prototypical closer, but no one has been more effective since 2013. Traded from Pittsburgh to Washington at the trade deadline, Melancon has a sub-2.00 ERA for the third time in four seasons and has also posted less than two walks per nine innings for the fourth straight year. A history of arm injuries earlier in his career could have teams concerned about giving him a long-term deal, but all it takes is one team.
Prediction: Three years, $40 million
The Royals got a bargain when they let Billy Butler walk and signed Morales to a two-year, $17 million contract after a down year. Morales is closing in on 30 home runs for the second time in his career and looks like he has plenty left entering his mid-30s. Being limited to DH is the only major issue that will keep Morales' contract limited.
Prediction: Two years, $15 million
Moreland has been an underappreciated player during his Rangers career, with three 20-plus home run seasons in the last four years. His power has been aided by his home park, but that shouldn't stop teams from giving Moreland a long look at first base.
Prediction: Three years, $45 million
Moss has rebounded from hip issues to have a huge year for the Cardinals between first base and the outfield. While his batting average isn't pretty, Moss has an OPS above .800 for the first time since 2013 and is approaching 30 home runs.
Prediction: Two years, $25 million
Napoli struggled offensively for two straight years leading up to 2016, fighting through nagging injuries. He's rebounded to set a career high in home runs this season, helping one of the biggest surprise lineups in baseball. After signing a one-year, $7 million contract last offseason, he's set to earn much more.
Prediction: Four years, $70 million
Nova could be the most intriguing free agent pitcher on the market after what Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage has produced out of him since coming over from the Yankees. He fits the Pirates' profile as a ground ball pitcher and has been throwing downhill since arriving to the team. His ERA is 2.41 through eight starts in Pittsburgh, with a gaudy 43/3 K/BB in 52.1 innings. Edinson Volquez and J.A. Happ have shown that the adjustments made with Searage can carry over elsewhere.
Prediction: Four years, $40 million
Prado is the leader of the Miami clubhouse and still a productive player on the field. The third baseman is hitting above .300 for the first time since 2012 and will be entering just his age 33 season.
Prediction: Six years, $100 million
What a difference vision can make. Ramos has "seen" a complete breakout offensively following LASIK surgery, making his first All-Star appearance and becoming a legitimate MVP candidate with career highs in nearly every offensive category. He has elite offense with 20 homers and an OPS above .800, and still plays excellent defense.
Prediction: One year, $10 million
Rasmus accepted the qualifying offer with the Astros last offseason, allowing him to earn nearly $16 million this year. That kind of money will be difficult to come by in 2017 after a subpar season, but Rasmus still has the all-around upside to get a nice payday on a pillow contract.
Prediction: Four years, $50 million
Reddick has been far less than the Dodgers bargained for when they acquired him from Oakland at the trade deadline, but he remains one of the top free agents on the market. He plays elite defense in right field and has still shown strong offensive flashes, hitting 20 homers as recently as last season.
Prediction: Three years, $40 million
Saunders has surprisingly rebounded from a major knee injury to be one of Toronto's top hitters this season. He's having a clear career year, hitting 20 home runs for the first time and making his first All-Star appearance. It will be interesting to see how his injury history impacts his contract entering his age 30 season.
Prediction: Four years, $65 million
Trumbo picked the right time to have a career year after two disappointing seasons. He's led the AL in home runs for much of the year and has a career-high OPS. There's plenty bad about Trumbo's game, including subpar defense and lots of strikeouts, but the power is undeniable when he's on.
Prediction: Four years, $50 million
Turner had a slow start following offseason surgery, but he's been worth the wait for the Dodgers. He's having his third consecutive career year, now approaching 30 home runs as a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat for the Dodgers.
Prediction: Three years, $30 million
Back surgery ended a great season from Walker and could really complicate his free agent market. He hit .282-23-55 in only 113 games this season for the Mets and has been one of the more consistent players at second base during his career.
Prediction: One year, $12 million
Wieters accepted Baltimore's qualifying offer last offseason after fighting through elbow issues in 2015. The once can't-miss prospect has regressed further both offensively and defensively this season, so his market will be especially interesting this offseason.
Prediction: Two years, $15 million
Ziegler has proved that he can pitch effectively in any relief role as an extreme ground ball submarine reliever with good control. He had a 1.85 ERA last season, and his ERA is below 2.00 since joining Boston. The only major concern is how long he can continue to pitch, entering his late 30s with a motion that's stressful on his body.
Seth Trachtman is a sportswriter, digital marketer, and fantasy sports expert based in St. Louis, Missouri. He’s a two-time winner of the Tout Wars Fantasy Baseball Expert’s League, and his work has appeared in hundreds of fantasy baseball and fantasy football newsstand and online publications
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