Ranking the starting pitching staffs of all 30 MLB teams.
The Mets are locked and loaded with perhaps the best set of four young starters MLB has seen in decades. Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and even rookie Steven Matz could all get Cy Young votes if they stay healthy. Bartolo Colon adds a solid fifth starter, and it seems unfair that Zack Wheeler (career 3.50 ERA) will also be returning from Tommy John surgery later this year.
The "big three" in Cleveland's rotation is difficult to match. Corey Kluber won the 2014 AL Cy Young, Carlos Carrasco was a candidate last year, and Danny Salazar had a breakout year with a 3.45 ERA and 9.5 K/9. Scouts still like Trevor Bauer's upside if he can throw strikes, and the fifth starter spot is in good hands with either Josh Tomlin or Cody Anderson's newfound velocity.
The St. Louis rotation had the lowest ERA in baseball last season despite losing Adam Wainwright for most of the year. Wainwright returns, and durable Mike Leake replaces John Lackey. The big questions surround the health of the rotation, with Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia all going through shoulder issues in recent seasons. If they can stay on the field, the rotation can be as good as any.
Max Scherzer earned his money in the first year of a seven-year deal in 2015, posting a career-best 2.79 ERA. Stephen Strasburg struggled through injuries but still has ace ability as he enters a walk year. Despite losing Jordan Zimmermann in the offseason, Gio Gonzalez makes for a solid No. 3 starter, and Joe Ross showed great ability in his rookie season with a 3.64 ERA. Tanner Roark rounds out the rotation, one year removed from a 2.85 ERA in 31 starts. The team also has amazing minor league upside, led by elite pitching prospect Lucas Giolito.
The Giants beefed up their rotation this offseason by signing Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, joining ace Madison Bumgarner. However, Samardzija had an ERA near 5.00 last season and hasn't corrected his issues this spring. There are also questions at the back of the rotation, with veterans Matt Cain and Jake Peavy trying to regain their younger forms.
The Rays had the lowest starter ERA in the AL last season, and the rotation looks even deeper this year. Chris Archer emerged as an ace, and Jake Odorizzi has been a solid No. 2. Drew Smyly and Matt Moore go into the season healthy, which gives the rotation huge left-handed upside, and Erasmo Ramirez was a strong No. 5 option last year. The X-factor could be top prospect Blake Snell, who should be ready shortly after the start of the season and posted a 1.57 ERA in the minors last season.
The Dodgers lost Zack Greinke in the offseason but hope more depth is a viable trade-off. Clayton Kershaw is clearly the best pitcher in the world, with three Cy Youngs in the last five years. The depth took a hit by losing Brett Anderson early in spring training, but L.A. is hopeful new acquisitions Kenta Maeda and Scott Kazmir can make up for the loss. Alex Wood has been a capable starter during his brief MLB career, and Mike Bolsinger served as a good fill-in last year. Brandon McCarthy is expected to return from Tommy John surgery after the All-Star Break, and top prospects Julio Urias and Jose De Leon should also help this season.
Jake Arrieta is coming off of a Cy Young season, and Jon Lester served as Ace 1B last year. The Cubs have added to the rotation by signing John Lackey during the offseason, and back-end starters Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks have proved capable of posting sub-4.00 ERAs recently. Arrieta's ability to match last season will be key for the rotation to match last year's third best ERA in the league.
Dallas Keuchel is coming off an AL Cy Young campaign, and Houston's rotation looks far deeper than it did entering 2015. Collin McHugh is now a proven pitcher after two strong seasons, and Mike Fiers has been able to miss bats regularly with his unorthodox delivery. Lance McCullers could have as much upside as any pitcher in the rotation, but he's going to miss the beginning of the year with an arm injury. The Astros hope Doug Fister and Scott Feldman can fill in well while he's out.
Arizona was the talk of the offseason after adding Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to Patrick Corbin, but the back end of the rotation remains a major question mark. Both Rubby De La Rosa and Robbie Ray have strong arms, but neither pitcher has proved himself consistently in the Majors. The same goes for depth options Archie Bradley and Zack Godley.
With Yu Darvish due back from Tommy John surgery in May, the Rangers could really have something special in 2016. They acquired Cole Hamels last season, and Derek Holland is finally healthy. The back end of their rotation isn't too shabby with Martin Perez showing strong ground ball tendencies and Colby Lewis coming off a 200-inning, 17-win season.
Safeco Field certainly aids the Mariners pitching staff, but there's still a world of talent. Felix Hernandez fell off late last season but is still widely regarded as an ace. The team brought back Hisashi Iwakuma after his contract with the Dodgers fell through, and he's been consistent for the team recently. Taijuan Walker has the arm of an ace but hasn't been able to keep the ball in the park yet. Wade Miley and Nate Karns are excellent back-end starters for any team.
Pitching at Yankee Stadium isn't the friendliest for pitchers, but the Yankees have the rotation talent to make it work. Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and Nate Eovaldi have struggled to stay healthy recently, but each pitcher has shown good upside when he has been on the mound. Luis Severino was the team's best pitcher down the stretch last season after getting promoted, and the team hopes he can be the ace. The fifth starter spot will be one of Ivan Nova or CC Sabathia, and the Yanks just hope for some positive contribution.
Losing A.J. Burnett could be a killer for the Pittsburgh rotation, but the Pirates have a strong top two in Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano. Jon Niese adds experience as the No. 3 starter. Juan Nicasio is a former top prospect in Colorado who has emerged as an intriguing option as the No. 4 starter, while Jeff Locke and Ryan Vogelsong fight for the No. 5 spot. Prospects Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon will likely be seen in Pittsburgh before the end of the year.
The addition of David Price gives Boston's rotation some legitimacy after ranking 24th in the league in ERA last season. Boston is also excited about Eduardo Rodriguez, though he could miss the first month of the season due to a knee injury. Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly enter the season healthy and pitching well, while Rick Porcello looks primed for a rebound after posting a career-best 3.92 K/BB ratio last season.
Jose Fernandez has the ability to be one of the best pitchers in the world if he can stay healthy. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year, and his arm continued to hinder him after the injury. Wei-Yin Chen has the ability to be a strong No. 2 starter after signing this offseason, posting a 3.34 ERA last season at much more hitter-friendly Baltimore. The rest of the rotation doesn't have household names, but Adam Conley, Tom Koehler and Jarred Cosart have shown flashes during their careers.
Chris Sale has yet to win a Cy Young Award but has finished top six in voting in each of the last four seasons. Jose Quintana has been quietly strong recently, and the White Sox are hoping 2014 first-round pick Carlos Rodon can continue to progress after a good rookie debut. Mat Latos could be the X-factor this season after struggling last year. He had a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the previous five seasons.
Petco Park helps the Padres' pitchers plenty, but there's no doubt the top three have talent. Tyson Ross has become a formidable ace, and James Shields is still a strong No. 2 despite his struggles last season. Andrew Cashner also had issues last season but has the velocity of an ace. The back of the rotation has dropped off as the team rebuilds, though soft-tosser Colin Rea is interesting and probable fifth starter Drew Pomeranz has also shown good ability while in Oakland.
Despite winning the World Series last season, Kansas City's rotation ERA ranked 22nd in 2015. The Royals are hoping Yordano Ventura can take a step forward after showing strong flashes late in the year, and the addition of Ian Kennedy could also be good if he can keep the ball in the park. Edinson Volquez doesn't exactly make teams fear their No. 1 starter, but he has 26 wins and a 3.30 ERA over the last two seasons. Kris Medlen and Chris Young have proved to be strong finesse pitchers when they're healthy.
The Jays clearly have the best lineup in baseball, but it remains to be seen if their rotation can do enough to lead them to a World Series. Marcus Stroman will step in as the team's ace after missing most of last year with a torn ACL, and R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada can be decent middle-of-the-rotation starters, if nothing else. The difference-maker could be Aaron Sanchez, who struggled with his control prior to 2016 but has been incredible this spring.
The A's have a deep rotation led by ace Sonny Gray. Their starting five looks completely different when Jesse Hahn is healthy, as he has been this spring, with a career 3.23 ERA in 170 innings. Rich Hill is an interesting addition after his great late-season run in 2015. The back of the rotation features a pair of pitchers who are capable of league-average or better ERAs in Chris Bassitt and Kendall Graveman. The team is also hopeful Henderson Alvarez can help by June.
The Tigers traded David Price last season but hope free agent signing Jordan Zimmermann can fill the void. That's not a sure thing after Zimmermann's velocity fell last season. Justin Verlander looked very good after returning from injury last season, but he's not the Cy Young pitcher we saw a few years ago without the same velocity. Anibal Sanchez can be an asset when he's healthy. The back of the rotation is shaky, with Mike Pelfrey's poor strikeout rate and Shane Greene returning from injury in top prospect Daniel Norris' stead.
The Twins are clearly lacking an ace, though they have some ability from top to bottom. Phil Hughes is hoping to regain his 2014 form and is still the most precise control pitcher in baseball with less than one walk per nine innings over the last two seasons. Ervin Santana missed half of 2015 due to a PEDs suspension but can be a strong middle-of-the-rotation starter. Kyle Gibson has also emerged as a good ground ball pitcher. The last two rotation spots have been up for grabs this spring, and the team is hopeful top prospect Jose Berrios will be ready to help soon.
The Angels are happy to have a healthy Garrett Richards entering 2016, but they have a bevy of other issues. C.J. Wilson will miss at least April with shoulder issues, and Jered Weaver is barely breaking 80 mph this spring. Hector Santiago was a good middle-of-the-rotation starter last season, and the team has reason to be excited about Tyler Skaggs as he returns from Tommy John surgery. Matt Shoemaker and Nick Tropeano will need to take leaps forward for this rotation to match last year's No. 13 ERA ranking.
The Reds started a youth movement late last season, and they could test the city's patience this year. Homer Bailey won't be ready to return from Tommy John surgery until at least May, though Raisel Iglesias and Anthony DeSclafani showed nice flashes last season. Behind them are a series of young and unproven starters, including Brandon Finnegan and Jon Moscot. Sensing how thin their rotation was entering the year, the Reds added Alfredo Simon late this spring. Top prospects Cody Reed and Robert Stephenson should contribute later this year.
We know the O's can hit, but can they pitch? They're counting on Kevin Gausman to have a breakout season, and that's already been halted with minor shoulder issues this spring. Ubaldo Jimenez has been extremely inconsistent since signing with the team in 2014. New acquisition Yovani Gallardo isn't the same pitcher he was in Milwaukee, but he did manage a 3.42 ERA last season. Former ace Chris Tillman was terrible last season, with a 4.99 ERA.
It's difficult to grade the Colorado rotation given the challenges of pitching at Coors Field, but there is some talent. Chad Bettis emerged as a strong option last year, and Jorge De La Rosa is one of the few pitchers in the organization's history who has found consistent success. The team is optimistic about Tyler Chatwood and Jordan Lyles returning from injury, and former first-round pick Jon Gray's arm talent shows why he was drafted so highly.
The Braves remain in rebuilding mode, though Julio Teheran has shown ace ability in the past. Behind him are a series of question marks, including young pitchers Matt Wisler and Michael Foltynewicz, along with veterans Bud Norris and Jhoulys Chacin. The Braves traded Shelby Miller in the offseason, though the long-term impact will probably be fruitful, including top pitching prospect Aaron Blair.
Not only is Philadelphia's rotation mediocre, but it also lacks much upside. Jeremy Hellickson, Charlie Morton and Adam Morgan don't miss many bats and probably aren't good bets for ERAs below 4.00. Aaron Nola was the team's 2014 first-rounder and could quickly emerge as the ace. Jerad Eickhoff and Vincent Velasquez (formerly of Houston) also showed some upside last season, but neither pitcher can be considered reliable at this point.
Even after posting a 4.72 ERA last season, Wily Peralta will be Milwaukee's Opening Day starter. That shows just how little the Brewers have to work with. Matt Garza has struggled as much this spring as he did last season. Jimmy Nelson showed nice ability last year but still hasn't posted an ERA below 4.00. Chase Anderson should be good for innings and has shown ability in Arizona. The back of the rotation will feature some young upside but could be a revolving door between Taylor Jungmann, Javier Lopez, Zach Davies and Ariel Pena.
Seth Trachtman is a sportswriter, digital marketer, and fantasy sports expert based in St. Louis, Missouri. He’s a two-time winner of the Tout Wars Fantasy Baseball Expert’s League, and his work has appeared in hundreds of fantasy baseball and fantasy football newsstand and online publications
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