The Denver Broncos are coming off their bye week with back-to-back wins in their pocket. The Broncos are still alive in the playoff hunt, which is unbelievable after their 1-5 start to the season.
However, the Broncos face another big test with the Buffalo Bills coming on Monday Night Football. There are multiple studs on the Bills' offense with QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, and TE Dawson Knox, but a rookie tight end is the biggest threat to the Broncos' defense. This rookie has played more snaps than Knox and has the third-most targets, second-most catches, and zero drops on the season.
Before getting into Dalton Kincaid, let's look at the Broncos' linebackers — Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton — and how they've done in coverage this season.
Both Jewell and Singleton are allowing a quarterback rating of over 100 when targeted, and they have allowed 57-of-64 combined targets to be caught for 584 yards and three touchdowns. The Broncos' linebackers have had issues in coverage this year, and the safeties haven't been able to help because of problems on the outside.
There have been too many openings for tight ends to make a play in the middle of the field. The Broncos' linebacker issues in coverage have left an opening that has persisted even as the defense has improved. What has prevented the linebackers from getting completely exposed has been the Broncos' pass rush, which can help against a battered Allen.
Now, as for the unique threat Kincaid presents, even though he's a rookie tight end, he's looked great on the field. The tight end position typically takes a couple of years before they emerge, but Kincaid is more of a bigger wide receiver with how he has lined up and been utilized by the Bills.
He has north of 100 more snaps lining up in the slot or out wide than he has as an inline tight end. That only adds stress to the Broncos' defense because there's a large size difference if Kincaid gets matched up with nickel cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian.
That's part of what makes Kincaid the Bills' biggest offensive threat to the Broncos. He's a mismatch nightmare with an advantage against almost anyone who lines up against him.
The Broncos' defense doesn't have that player who can eliminate tight ends, and their scheme isn't doing enough without putting pressure on the quarterback. The Bills love to stick in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) on offense, and the Broncos' response this season has been a 3-3-5 defense, which is standard. The Broncos have struggled out of that defense, allowing a success rate of over 50% and a 0.07 EPA.
Meanwhile, the Bills are near the top in advanced metrics when working out of 11 personnel, using it on nearly 60% of their snaps. What Buffalo does well offensively is attacking exactly where the Broncos' defense has struggled. The Bills have a weapon in Kincaid that will make life difficult for the Broncos, but he's a danger even without the ball or being targeted.
The Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs offense and mostly limited Travis Kelce. However, the Bills have the weapons at wide receiver, making it more difficult to defend them than the Chiefs.
After the Bills' 3-1 start, they have since gone 2-3. Buffalo will look to correct things at home against a surging Broncos team.
This will be a tough matchup for the Broncos. If Denver can't handle Kincaid without allowing another weapon to take over, it will be a long day.
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