Here's Why Broncos Are Unlikely to Get Comp Draft Picks for 2024

With the reports that Denver Broncos defensive lineman Dre'Mont Jones will test the market, and that other unrestricted free agents may do the same, some might ask whether or not the team may be in line for any compensatory draft picks if those players aren't retained.

The way it works is, teams are eligible to receive 2024 compensatory draft picks for any unrestricted free agents signed by other teams in 2023. However, in order to get such picks, a team must lose more unrestricted free agents than it signs from other teams in a given free-agency period.

If a team needs to explore free agency to fill needs, it's tougher to get compensatory picks unless that team focuses on street free agents, or players released from their contracts before they expired.

In the Broncos' case, they don't have many players who would likely net a compensatory pick, to begin with. Jones is one of those players, with offensive lineman Dalton Risner and linebacker Alex Singleton as the other two.

However, it's hard to see any of the Broncos' other unrestricted free agents netting a compensatory pick. Perhaps a team is willing to sign offensive tackle Cameron Fleming to be a starter after he had a solid 2022 campaign, but the rest are either aging players or better suited in a depth role.

Furthermore, it's likely the Broncos will be active in free agency, and the best options will likely be unrestricted free agents. It wouldn't surprise me if the Broncos signed at least three unrestricted free agents, meaning they wouldn't get comp picks if all three of Jones, Singleton, and Risner signed elsewhere.

The reality is that it may be a couple of years before the Broncos are in line to get compensatory picks. Two things give a team a better chance at them: Drafting well overall or coming off a playoff trip, particularly a Super Bowl trip.

Let's say you have seven draft picks in a given year, and five of those picks turn into quality starters. When their rookie deals expire, you will have to make decisions about who to keep. Thus, if you keep three of those players and let the other two walk, while drafting their replacements, you're in a good position to get comp picks for the two players who left.

When you have a deep playoff run and allow certain players to depart, they could draw more interest from other teams. That means a better chance at comp picks, particularly if you are focusing on the draft to replenish the roster.

We can see the perfect example when the Broncos made multiple playoff trips under Peyton Manning. Denver had several players who left in free agency in 2015 and 2016, which led to compensatory picks because the team didn't sign that many outside unrestricted free agents.

If the Broncos want compensatory picks, they have to do two things: Draft well and get to the playoffs. Over time, the Broncos would have to make decisions about which players to keep, and who should be replaced through the draft. That would give Denver a better chance to get comp picks.

For the time being, though, the Broncos need to focus on improving the roster the best way possible, which means they need to explore free agency. At this stage, the Broncos shouldn't think too much about accumulating comp picks, even if they don't have much draft capital at this time.