Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

NFL futures: Season-long rushing TD bets to make

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated Jun 12, 2024 11:20 AM ET

We continue our look through the NFL futures market for rushing props to find some value lines worth investing in. The running back market for futures has a bit less to offer than some of the other season-long statistics we've explored, but that doesn't mean we can't find some bets worth backing.

NFL futures: Season-long bets to make

Rushing yards | Receiving TDs | Receiving yards | Passing TDs | Passing yards

When you consider markets like these, do know that the numbers and data suggest pocketing more unders than overs, despite our innate desire to root on things happening. In a league like the NFL, injuries are just so prominent, which skews these markets and have the unders as the tried and true more consistent option.

That doesn't mean we'll only be betting unders, but we will aim to favor them as much as we can.

Zack Moss over 6.5 rushing touchdowns (+100 DraftKings)

In case you missed it, the Cincinnati Bengals signed Zack Moss to be their lead back this offseason after Joe Mixon left to join the Houston Texans.

The 26-year old Moss was with Indianapolis the past two seasons, and rushed for a career-high five touchdowns last year. This 6.5 mark is obviously higher than what we've seen him pull off up to this point, but there's potential for this role to be beneficial for Moss.

It sure helps when you're on a strong offense, and one should not sleep on a big bounce-back season from Joe Burrow and the Bengals. We expect them to move the ball well through the air and pile up points, and assuming they do get into scoring position, Moss figures to be the bowling-ball type back that powers into the end zone.

Cincinnati has not shied away from leaning on the ground game when they get in close. Joe Mixon was third in the NFL last year in red zone carries, and he's been inside the top-12 for attempts inside the 20 for three straight years.

Mixon rushed for 29 touchdowns over the last three seasons, and if Moss even inherits 75% of that work, he should be in good shape to cash on this over.

Saquon Barkley under 6.5 rushing touchdowns (-110 DraftKings)

While we did already cover our love for Barkley's rushing yardage over this season, his touchdowns are a bit more of a toss-up. The main reason there is the presence of Jalen Hurts and the "tush-push," which is not going away in 2024.

Once Philly gets close, they lean on the tried and true method of their quarterback sneak with Hurts's strength, which sports a massively high success rate.

That limits the amount of rushing touchdowns up for grabs for Barkley, unless he breaks off a ton of big runs.

Last year, D'Andre Swift scored five TDs on the ground, and in three seasons as the starter, Hurts has rushed for 38 touchdowns. That's a lot of scores going away from the running back position, which forces our hand here to favor Barkley's under.

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders.

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