NFL Week 10: Picks and preview

TV: NFL NETWORK        Line: Baltimore -7.5

What you need to know:  Watching the Ravens play can be emotionally exhausting, mainly because their performance is as volatile as Lamar Jackson’s. When Jackson is running hot, the Ravens can get going in a hurry, and as a result have added the ability to rally from early deficits, as they did against Minnesota, to their repertoire. When he goes cold, Baltimore is vulnerable. Sunday’s rally kept Baltimore alone atop the AFC North, and their reward on a short week is a Dolphins team that committed five turnovers against Houston – and won. The Dolphins had to go with Jacoby Brissett instead of Tua Tagovailoa, but are optimistic that Tagovailoa’s finger will be healed enough to go in this game. That said, if Miami turns the ball over five times again, it won’t matter who plays quarterback, because Baltimore will win going away. The Dolphins’ best chance is to try and play keep away from Jackson, and hope Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle can make some big plays.

On the spot: Ravens HC John Harbaugh.  It’s great and all that Jackson has started to find ways to bring his team back from big deficits, but wouldn’t it be better if the Ravens just started getting leads and keeping them? Blame for Baltimore’s slow starts rests with many people, Harbaugh among them.

Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki:  Baltimore’s usually stingy defense has merely been so-so this year, and is 29^th in the league in net yards allowed per pass attempt. Gesicki is a physical mismatch with great hands, and if he has a huge game, Miami could hang around in this one.

The pick: Ravens 31 Dolphins 16

TV: FOX        Line: Pittsburgh -8

What you need to know:  Detroit is terrible, and while they have played in some close games, and could easily have a win or two, that method of dulling the pain of being the NFL’s only winless team is starting to lose its effectiveness. Dan Campbell’s team is particularly vulnerable against the pass, giving up the most net yards per attempt of any team in the league, at 8.3. What’s also problematic is the fact that the only passing offense the Lions might be able to stop is their own. The Steelers bottled up Justin Fields for about 30 minutes Monday night, and seemed well on their way to an easy victory before the roof nearly caved in in the fourth quarter, and Ben Roethlisberger had to lead a game-winning field goal drive. Pittsburgh got outgained, 414-280, and several pivotal calls – or non-calls – went the Steelers’ way. This is the last “easy” game Mike Tomlin’s team has left, so not only is a win imperative, but a significant uptick in overall performance would help, too.

On the spot: Lions TE T.J. Hockenson.  Hockenson is the Lions’ best downfield threat, which isn’t really saying much since Jared Goff is the quarterback, but the Steelers have traditionally struggled to cover talented tight ends, so a Hockenson-heavy game plan might be Detroit’s best shot.

Steelers LT Dan Moore Jr:  Moore struggled badly against the Bears, and Khalil Mack wasn’t even playing. Zach Banner seems healthy and ready, and Chukwuma Okorafor can always slide over to play the left side, so if Moore doesn’t perform, he might lose his job.

The pick: Steelers 27 Lions 13

TV: FOX        Line: Dallas -8

What you need to know:  The Falcons very nearly blew a 17-point lead against New Orleans, only to rescue themselves thanks to a 64-yard pass from Matt Ryan to Cordarrelle Patterson that set up Younghoe Koo’s game-winning kick. Atlanta has shown some pluck this season, after looking early on like one of the NFL’s worst teams. Their wins have all come over either bad teams or teams operating with backup quarterbacks. The Cowboys fall into neither of those categories, so a win in Dallas would be a real eye-opener. Speaking of the Cowboys, no favored team – not even Buffalo – looked worse in Week 9. Dallas never got anything going offensively and turned the ball over twice, and Denver was able to run the ball at will against the Cowboys’ defense. Both of those aspects were surprising; Dallas had the league’s top total offense coming in, and their run defense was about average. Matt Ryan is playing well and has weapons; if Dallas doesn’t shore up its defense, this game could get dicey.

On the spot: Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson.  Is he a running back? Is he a wide receiver? The one thing Patterson most definitely is is a weapon – not to mention a fantasy football terror. Patterson’s biggest impact has been in the passing game, and Dallas will have to account for him, wherever he lines up.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott:  Prescott is one of the league’s best passers, so he’s allowed to have a dud once in a while. That said, Denver’s defense is statistically one of the league’s best, so his rough outing was understandable. The Falcons are one of the worst. Prescott needs to light Atlanta up.

The pick: Cowboys 34 Falcons 30

TV: CBS        Line: Tennessee -2.5

What you need to know:  The Saints had a chance to take over first place in the NFC South while the Buccaneers were idle, but couldn’t get past Atlanta. New Orleans was sleepwalking for the better part of the first three quarters, falling behind 24-6, before rallying to a 25-24 lead. Sean Payton’s team couldn’t hold the advantage, however, surrendering a game-winning drive built entirely on a 64-yard pass from Matt Ryan to Cordarrelle Patterson. The big question this week is, will Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill start at quarterback? Tennessee’s defense made a major statement, playing takeaway against Matthew Stafford and the Rams on the way to a 28-16 victory that wasn’t even as close as the 12-point margin. As good as the win was, the Titans only sustained two legitimate drives all game, and likely won’t be gifted points via turnovers the way they were in Los Angeles. The defense has to continue playing well, but Tennessee’s ability to weather Derrick Henry’s absence depends largely on whether or not Ryan Tannehill’s play improves.

On the spot: Saints HC Sean Payton.  Payton still has to figure out what he’s going to do with his quarterback situation. Will the late loss to Atlanta compel him to go with Hill? Will he stick with Siemian? Will he pick up the phone and call Philip Rivers? It’s anyone’s guess.

Titans RB Adrian Peterson:  Peterson looked rusty against the Rams, and lacked any real explosiveness, despite scoring a touchdown. Tennessee’s defense rose to the occasion against Los Angeles, but the Titans would really benefit if Peterson could flash his old form.

The pick: Saints 24 Titans 20

TV: CBS        Line: Indianapolis -10

What you need to know:  Jacksonville got the shock win of Week 9, and there was nothing fluky about it. The Jaguars’ much-maligned defense terrorized Josh Allen, sacking him four times and intercepting him twice. Jacksonville’s Josh Allen became the first player in NFL history to sack a player with the same name, and also the first player in NFL history to intercept a player with the same name. That strange footnote aside, it was a feel-good win for Jacksonville; can Urban Meyer’s team actually build on it, though? The Colts handled their business in a big way against the Jets, though Indianapolis may well have benefited from Mike White’s injury, which knocked him from the game after an early touchdown pass that tied the game at 7. Carson Wentz threw three touchdowns and Jonathan Taylor rolled up 172 yards and two more scores, and the Colts’ offense looked downright dominant. A repeat performance would even their record at 5-5, and make them a second-half team to watch in the AFC South.

On the spot: Jaguars LB Myles Jack.  Jack figures to be a busy man against a Colts offense that wants to run the ball all the time and is quite good at it. If he can’t navigate around Indianapolis’ offensive linemen, Jacksonville will be in trouble.

Colts RB Nyheim Hines:  The Jaguars are surprisingly stout against the run, ranking third in the league in yards per carry allowed. That might mean that Hines, a skilled receiver, plays a bigger role in the Colts’ offensive game plan.

The pick: Colts 33 Jaguars 17

TV: CBS        Line: New England -2.5

What you need to know:  It makes no sense in principle, but the results are inarguable; Baker Mayfield is a better player without Odell Beckham. Cleveland looked like a completely different team with the Beckham saga settled, and Mayfield’s 60-yard touchdown to Donovan Peoples-Jones was the deep shot Browns fans have been waiting for. Cleveland forced three turnovers, sacked Joe Burrow five times, and looked much more like the team most observers expected them to be this season. Mac Jones wasn’t particularly great against Carolina, but New England’s defense was completely suffocating, intercepting Sam Darnold three times and holding the Panthers to just 240 yards of offense. Buffalo suddenly looks vulnerable, and Bill Belichick’s team looks like it is working from the same playbook it used during Tom Brady’s early years. That said, stopping Cleveland’s offense, particularly its running game, is a much taller task than shutting down the Panthers. Whichever team wins this game will have made a statement to the rest of the AFC.

On the spot: Browns RB D’Ernest Johnson.  If Nick Chubb doesn’t get off the COVID list in time, the Browns will have to go with Johnson as their bell cow in the backfield. Given that his first chance to be “the man” resulted in 146 yards against Denver, the Browns are in good hands.

Patriots LB Dont’a Hightower: Hightower isn’t an every-down defender for New England anymore, but he is still a capable run defender. He’ll need to be great against a Browns team that swiftly rediscovered its offensive identity post-Beckham.

The pick: Browns 26 Patriots 21

TV: CBS        Line: Buffalo -11

What you need to know:  The Bills’ offensive line got caved in by Jacksonville, and Josh Allen never got comfortable as a result. That added up to one of the most surprising results of the NFL season, and now Buffalo, a team that looked at one time like the clear class of the AFC, could find itself out of first place in the AFC East if they don’t handle their business against the Jets. Buffalo must get better line play, and get more production from their running backs. As they’ve proven, though, that is easier said than done. Mike White should be back under center for the Jets in this game, but what was interesting, and perhaps troubling for the Jets about their loss to the Colts was that White and Josh Johnson have both looked considerably more comfortable running the offense than second overall pick Zach Wilson. Wilson still won’t be back for a few weeks, but one imagines that New York’s brain trust is scratching their collective heads about the current dynamics of their quarterback situation.

On the spot: Bills OC Brian Daboll.  Buffalo hasn’t been nearly as consistent or explosive as their talent suggests they should be. The players deserve most of the blame, but some must fall on Daboll, who has become a popular head-coaching candidate because of his success with Allen.

Jets QB Mike White: White has played five quarters for the Jets. He looks by far to be the best passer on the roster, and he will have yet another chance to prove that in this game. If nothing else, he’s made New York an interesting watch.

The pick: Bills 38 Jets 14

TV: FOX        Line: Tampa Bay -9.5

What you need to know:  Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are rested and doubtless aggravated after losing to the Saints in Week 8. That loss is a small concern at this point, though; Tampa Bay is tops in the league in scoring and third-best in point differential, and Brady is on pace to top 50 touchdown passes this season. The Bucs continue to be one of the stingiest run defenses in the league and are eighth-best in the league in net yards allowed per pass attempt. Washington is in a tailspin. The Football Team has dropped four straight games, three of them by double digits, and Taylor Heinicke has a passer rating of 68.0 during that span. There isn’t much reason to expect improvement in this game, either. Washington is 25 ^th in the league in scoring offense, and 29^th in scoring defense, and their minus-71 point differential is third-worst in the NFC. Washington played Denver tough last week, but the Buccaneers are most definitely not the Broncos.

On the spot: Buccaneers QB Tom Brady. Brady’s pick-six was the pivotal play in Tampa’s loss to New Orleans. Despite that, he’s arguably the leading MVP candidate in the league this season. To that end, he has a chance to put up huge numbers against a defense that gave him some issues in last year’s playoffs.

Washington Football Team HC Ron Rivera:  The nightmare season continues in Washington, with the Football Team taking a massive step back on defense, and the Heinicke experiment looking worse by the week. Rivera is running out of time to keep this from becoming a total debacle.

The pick: Buccaneers 35 Washington Football Team 20

TV: FOX        Line: Arizona -10.5

What you need to know:  Sam Darnold will miss 4-6 weeks with a fractured scapula in his right shoulder. Darnold suffered the injury in Week 8 against the Falcons and tried to play through it against the Patriots last week. He was terrible against New England, and even without this injury, he probably has no future as the starter in Carolina. P.J. Walker will step in as the starter and will have plenty of chances to show what he can do for a team that is still very much in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Cardinals scored a hugely impressive victory in Week 9, dominating the 49ers without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and, for all but one carry, Chase Edmonds. Edmonds will miss time with a high-ankle sprain, but Murray should be back at the very least, and that’s bad news for the Panthers. If James Conner replicates his monster game from last week, Arizona should win comfortably. 

On the spot: Panthers QB P.J. Walker. Walker has been something of a professional football nomad, but this week starts the most pivotal few weeks of his professional life. If he keeps Carolina close or even pulls a stunning upset, he’ll be on everyone’s radar.

Cardinals RB James Conner: Who, you ask, is the NFL’s leading touchdown scorer through nine weeks? It’s Conner, with 11. He has a chance to make more hay against a Panthers defense that is merely average against the run, but strong versus the pass.

The pick: Cardinals 28 Panthers 20

TV: FOX        Line: Los Angeles -3

What you need to know:  Week 9’s loss to Baltimore was vintage Vikings. Minnesota looked like the clearly superior team for much of the first half and held a 14-point lead after Kene Nwangwu returned the opening kick of the second half for a touchdown. Naturally, things fell apart from there, and the Vikings ended up surrendering 500 yards of offense in an overtime defeat, despite intercepting Lamar Jackson during the extra period. The Vikings aren’t out of it in the NFC, but this is a game they desperately need to win. Justin Herbert looked much more like a future superstar last week, completing 32-of-38 passes for 356 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Chargers needed every bit of it to beat Philadelphia, with Herbert engineering a 15-play, 64-yard field goal drive that led to Dustin Hopkins’ game-winning 29-yard field goal with two seconds left. Los Angeles could still use more offensive balance, but when Herbert plays as he did against Philadelphia, it doesn’t really matter.

On the spot: Vikings HC Mike Zimmer.  Zimmer deserves plenty of heat for the Vikings’ inability to protect leads and finish winnable games. Minnesota is 3-5, yet hasn’t lost a game by more than seven points. The NFL doesn’t give a “close, but no cigar” award, so Zimmer needs to figure out how to get his team to the finish line.

Chargers DE Joey Bosa:  Bosa has a pedestrian 4.5 sacks through eight games, and while he got one last week against Philadelphia, he needs to be even better for the Chargers’ defense to be more an asset than a hindrance.

The pick: Chargers 30 Vikings 23

TV: CBS        Line: Denver -3

What you need to know:  The Eagles gave a good accounting of themselves against the Chargers, running the ball nearly at will against Loss Angeles; Jalen Hurts may well have been able to churn out a win, but the Eagles’ defense couldn’t get a stop on what turned out to be the game’s decisive drive. What remains to be seen is whether or not such a run-heavy approach will work against a Denver defense that still ranks second in the league in points allowed, and 11 ^th in yards per carry allowed. Speaking of the Broncos, their demolition of the Cowboys – in Dallas, no less – was a complete shock. Denver is part of a five-team logjam at 5-4 in the AFC, but unfortunately for the Broncos, they already have a head-to-head loss against Cleveland. The Broncos do get to see two of those other 5-4 teams, the Chiefs and the Bengals, later this season. The question with Denver is whether the Dallas game was an aberration, or a sign of what this team is legitimately capable of, even with Von Miller gone.

On the spot: Eagles WR DeVonta Smith. Ja’Marr Chase has been the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year for several weeks, and while Smith almost certainly won’t catch him in that race, he is starting to hit his stride; he had 116 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers last week.

Broncos CB Pat Surtain II: Surtain is questionable for this game after spraining his knee against the Cowboys, but seeing as the Broncos initially thought he might miss several weeks, his status is actually a positive. If he does go, expect a showdown with Smith, his former Alabama teammate.

The pick: Broncos 23 Eagles 17

TV: CBS        Line: Green Bay -3.5

What you need to know:  It looks like Seattle will have Russell Wilson back for this game, which means the Seahawks instantly become a serious threat again to rise from the bottom of the NFC West. Seattle went 1-2 in Geno Smith’s three starts, but both losses were at least close, which suggests that Wilson’s presence might turn things around in a big hurry. The defense, which has been considerably better in its last three games, figures to have a tall order in this game, however, because Aaron Rodgers should be back for the Packers. Rodgers’ vaccination fiasco cost Green Bay a very winnable game in Kansas City; if he was playing, it’s hard to imagine the Packers losing. He can minimize the damage done by coming out sharp in this game. Intriguingly, reports suggest that Odell Beckham, now a free agent, wants to play for the Pack and that the only question is whether or not Green Bay wants him. A passing game featuring Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Beckham could be terrifying for opposing defenses.

On the spot: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. Wilson’s importance to Seattle was on full display while he was out; Geno Smith simply couldn’t come close to approximating what Wilson does. With the Seahawks already in the cellar in the NFC West, he needs to hit the ground running or Seattle will be left behind.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers:  Green Bay’s offense looked abysmal with Jordan Love running the show. Assuming Rodgers is cleared to play, he should change that dynamic radically. He might even have a new teammate if the Beckham-to-Green Bay rumors are true.

The pick: Packers 28 Seahawks 27

TV: NBC        Line: Kansas City -2.5

What you need to know:  Kansas City got a win that didn’t feel like much of one; their defense shut the Packers down, but they were going against Jordan Love, not Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs failed to top 250 yards of offense, and whatever is ailing them on that side of the ball clearly isn’t fixed. Nine games in, Kansas City is lucky to be 5-4, and it feels like a sudden breakout isn’t coming. Andy Reid’s team is going to have a fight on its hands just to make the playoffs. It wasn’t the most surprising thing in the world that the Raiders, after another hellish week off the field, came out flat against the Giants. It was somewhat surprising, however, that Derek Carr was the one putting them in most of the bad spots, and not getting them out. Carr’s first interception was a pick-six that gave the Giants the lead early in the second half, and his second stymied Las Vegas’ attempt to rally in the fourth quarter. The Raiders can right themselves, and winning this game would be a great way to start.

On the spot: Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman.  Hardman is supposed to be the third option for Kansas City, behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but he’s been disappointing this season, catching just 38 passes for 372 yards and 1 touchdown, and averaging less than 10 yards per reception.

Raiders TE Darren Waller:  Waller is still producing yards and catches, but hasn’t scored a touchdown in three games, perhaps owing to the added attention he’s now receiving from opposing defenses. This game might turn into a shootout, so Waller needs to find the end zone.

The pick: Raiders 34 Chiefs 28

TV: ESPN        Line: Los Angeles -3

What you need to know:  The Rams delivered an absolute stinker when most felt they would have a chance to make a statement, with Matthew Stafford looking more like a rookie than a potential MVP candidate. Stafford’s two inexcusable interceptions completely changed the trajectory of the game, and the Rams were unable to crack Tennessee’s defense to climb out of the hole they dug themselves. Los Angeles is getting some good news for this game, however; Von Miller should be healthy enough to make his Rams debut, further boosting an already great defense. San Francisco looks to be in big trouble in the rugged NFC West after failing to take advantage of a Kyler Murray-less and overall banged-up Cardinals team. Jimmy Garoppolo played a solid game, and George Kittle provided a spark in his return, but the major issue was the 49ers’ defense, which got ripped to shreds by Colt McCoy and James Conner. The Niners couldn’t get Arizona’s offense off the field, and couldn’t generate much pressure on McCoy. Neither one of those facts bodes well for this matchup.

On the spot: Rams QB Matthew Stafford: Stafford singlehandedly lost the Rams their game with the Titans, with back-to-back atrocious interceptions. Before that performance, he was generating plenty of MVP buzz; he can get much of it back by shredding an underachieving Niners defense.

49ers DE Arik Armstead:  It was just two seasons ago that Armstead racked up 10 sacks and 11 tackles for loss for San Francisco. In 24 games since, he has just 5.5 sacks and 9 tackles for loss. Armstead’s lackluster play is one of many reasons why San Francisco’s defense is 25^th in the league in points allowed.

The pick: Rams 27 49ers 17