NFL Week 16: Picks and preview

TV: NFL NETWORK       Line: San Francisco -3

The Niners got to enjoy a stress-free win over the Falcons last week, but Elijah Mitchell is out this week, which means Jeff Wilson will be called upon to carry the load. He should be capable if his 110 yards last week – a career-high – are any indication. Tennessee turned the ball over four times against the Steelers and still had a chance to win but couldn’t mount a touchdown drive. Even if D’Onta Foreman is limited or can’t go because of his foot injury, the Titans have to run the ball, then run it some more. Straying from that identity will only lead to bad things.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Nick Bosa, tied for third in the league with 15 sacks, and leading the league with 18 tackles for loss, can become the 4 ^th player in league history with a sack in eight straight road games since the stat became official in 1982.

-Kevin Byard, the best safety you never think about, leads all safeties with 13 passes defended this year and is tied for the lead among safeties with 5 interceptions.

The pick: Titans 26 49ers 20

TV: NFL NETWORK       Line: Green Bay -7.5

Just when it looked like the Browns were going to make a great escape against the Raiders, Derek Carr came to life and engineered a winning field goal drive. Baker Mayfield and Kevin Stefanski should be back for Cleveland in this game, and the Browns will need all the offense they can muster to keep their season alive. The Packers were the latest beneficiary of John Harbaugh’s aggressive late-game coaching, stopping the Ravens on a two-point conversion to hold on for the win. Green Bay now owns the NFC’s top seed, and with games against the Vikings and Lions after this, has a very good chance at keeping it.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Nick Chubb, fourth in the NFL with 1,017 rushing yards, is the only player in the league with 950+ rushing yards in each of the last four seasons.

-Aaron Jones is in elite company; only he and Derrick Henry can claim 10+ touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. Jones also has 31 touchdowns in 32 career home games.

The pick: Packers 34 Browns 24

TV: NFL NETWORK       Line: Arizona -1

Indianapolis made a statement and de-mystified the Patriots with a bruising performance in last week’s 27-17 win. Jonathan Taylor sealed the game with a late touchdown run, and if he and the Colts’ offensive line stay healthy, Indianapolis looks like a team that’s peaking at the right time, and may just be the top challenger to the Chiefs. The Cardinals are reeling after taking a beating from the Lions, and it’s fair to wonder if Kyler Murray is fully healthy. It’s not panic time just yet for Arizona, but they lost the NFC’s top seed, and now will have to fight to make sure they hang on to the NFC West. With this game and Dallas looming, it’s no sure thing.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Carson Wentz is one of only three quarterbacks in the league, along with Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers, to throw for 20+ touchdowns and 6 or fewer interceptions this season.

-Who leads the NFC in rushing touchdowns this year? It’s not Aaron Jones or Leonard Fournette, or anyone on the Eagles. It’s Arizona’s James Conner, who has a career-high 14 so far.

The pick: Colts 30 Cardinals 24

TV: FOX       Line: Atlanta -5.5

If you’re a Lions fan desperate for the team to secure the top pick in this year’s draft, I apologize. Your team seems to have too much pride for that. The Lions dominated the Cardinals from start to finish last week, in easily their best performance of the year. That shouldn’t mask the fact that this team needs a lot of help. Atlanta still isn’t dead in the wide-open NFC, but it feels like last week’s loss to the 49ers was an accurate indicator of what the Falcons are compared to a real contender. With tough games against the Bills and Saints looming, the deck is stacked against Atlanta staging a miraculous end to their year.

Look smart to your friends: 

-If Amon-Ra St. Brown can log 8 catches in this game, he’ll join Odell Beckham Jr. as the only rookie wide receivers in the Super Bowl era with at least 8 catches in four straight games.

-With two touchdown passes, Matt Ryan (365) will pass Eli Manning (366) for 9 ^th-most in NFL history. Ryan also has posted a 100 or better passer rating in each of his last three starts against Detroit.

The pick: Falcons 27 Lions 23

TV: CBS       Line: Cincinnati -2.5

Count me in the camp of people who very much like and appreciate John Harbaugh’s gutsy late-game decisions, even if the analytics have been a push at best, if not flat-out against him both times he’s gone for two. He’s held the Ravens together with duct tape this year, but make no mistake, Baltimore is up against the ropes. The Bengals were able to grind out a win against Denver, but under Zac Taylor, Cincinnati is a front-runner only. The Bengals are an almost unthinkable 0-24 in Taylor’s tenure when trailing after three quarters. That’s very much on the coach, and a sign of a team that still hasn’t learned how to finish.

Look smart to your friends: 

-If Mark Andrews can haul in at least 10 catches, 100 yards, and one touchdown in this game, he’ll become just the second tight end in league history (Travis Kelce, 2018) to reach those benchmarks in consecutive games.

-Joe Burrow is just 360 yards away from becoming the third Bengals quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards in a season, and also leads the AFC with a 100.7 passer rating this year.

The pick: Bengals 27 Ravens 24

TV: FOX       Line: Los Angeles -2.5

The Rams didn’t exactly bathe themselves in glory in their win over Seattle Tuesday night, benefiting from both a call against Seattle’s defense and a no-call when Seattle had the ball to get a 20-10 win. A good sign for the Rams, however, is that Matthew Stafford (2 touchdowns, 106.1 passer rating) played a sharp game. Minnesota grinded out a very ugly win over the Bears, not exactly inspiring confidence that they’ve got a great performance in them in this game. That said, the Vikings currently occupy the last playoff spot in the NFC, and need this game, with a battle against Green Bay looming, not to mention another date with the pesky Bears.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Los Angeles wanted to make Jalen Ramsey a playmaker all over the field, and they have; Ramsey is the only player in the NFL with at least 13 passes defended and 8 tackles for loss this season.

-Kirk Cousins might wish this game was in Los Angeles. With two touchdown passes last week, he became just the fifth quarterback ever to throw 2+ touchdown passes in 10 consecutive road games.

The pick: Vikings 26 Rams 23

TV: CBS       Line: New England -2.5

Maybe the Bills really did find themselves in the second half of their loss to Tampa Bay. Buffalo cruised past Carolina, 31-14, and now the Bills have a chance to avenge their humiliating loss to the Patriots by going into Foxborough and getting a win. If the Bills do prevail, they’ll be back in first place in the division due to tiebreakers. The shine from New England’s win over Buffalo didn’t carry through the bye week; the Patriots were throttled physically by Indianapolis, and until he got going in the latter stages of the second half, Mac Jones looked every bit a rookie. Perhaps the Belichick-as-Boogeyman takes were a little premature, including from yours truly.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Josh Allen currently sits fourth in the NFL with 31 touchdown passes and is the only quarterback in Bills history with at least 30 touchdown passes in consecutive seasons.

-Don’t throw at J.C. Jackson. The Pats’ ace cornerback leads the NFL with 20 passes defended, and has five games with 2+ passes defended, tied for second-most in the league this year.

The pick: Bills 28 Patriots 21

TV: CBS       Line: PICK

The less said about this game, and both teams playing in it, the better. We’ll try anyway, however. The Jaguars did not get the expected “thank god Urban Meyer is gone” performance bump, looking as inept as ever in a loss to the Texans. Jacksonville is currently in line for the top pick in the draft, and they certainly need it. The Jets won’t have Robert Saleh for this game, as he tested positive for COVID-19, but Saleh could probably use a week away from the pressure-cooker. It has been a rough first year for him with New York, primarily because Zach Wilson has struggled every bit as badly as top pick Trevor Lawrence.

Look smart to your friends: 

-James Robinson, finally freed from Meyer’s ridiculous doghouse, got himself a touchdown last week, making him just the second undrafted player with 15+ rush touchdowns in his first two seasons.

-Jamison Crowder has been a small bright spot for New York. The veteran receiver 50 catches to lead the team, which marks his third-straight year with 50+ catches.

The pick: Jaguars 10 Jets 9

TV: FOX       Line: Philadelphia -10

The Giants are well into what is going to go down as a lost year, as Daniel Jones has been shut down for the season, and there’s a chance that Jake Fromm could start this week. Joe Judge’s team had nothing to offer the Cowboys last week, and regardless of who is under center in this game, the refrain is likely to be the same. Philadelphia rode its strong running game and some timely big throws from Jalen Hurts to a big win over the Football Team. The Eagles currently sit eighth in the NFC, but with a win and a Vikings loss, would take over the seventh spot. Philadelphia’s ground game and Hurts’ ability to make plays off-script would make them dangerous in the playoffs – if they get there.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Saquon Barkley has been strong in road games against the Eagles, with 209 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns in two appearances in Philly.

-Hurts is just the third quarterback in league history with 700+ rushing yards and 10+ rushing touchdowns in a single season. His 10 rushing scores are an Eagles franchise record for a quarterback.

The pick: Eagles 24 Giants 13

TV: FOX       Line: Tampa Bay -10

Uh oh, suddenly things don’t look so hot for Touchdown Tom and the Bucs, who certainly cut the profile of a Super Bowl contender. Chris Godwin is done for the year, Leonard Fournette will be out until the playoffs, and is also banged up. But hey, Antonio Brown is back. So much for zero tolerance, it seems. Matt Rhule’s Panthers tenure gets more and more uninspiring, and it’s fair to wonder whether David Tepper, who is armed with a dangerous combination of unlimited financial resources and minimal patience, is going to let Rhule stick around to draft and develop the next franchise quarterback in Charlotte.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Brady needs 4 touchdown passes to join Aaron Rodgers as the only players with three 40+ touchdown pass seasons. He would also join Drew Brees as the only players with consecutive 40+ touchdown years.

-Despite the Panthers’ quarterback miseries, D.J. Moore is just 14 yards away from his third-straight 1,000+ receiving yard season. Imagine what he might do with a real quarterback moving forward.

The pick: Buccaneers 26 Panthers 17

TV: CBS       Line: Los Angeles -10

After a hard-fought 34-28 loss to the Chiefs, Los Angeles gets a palate cleanser in the form of the woeful Texans, who do hold the distinction of being better than the truly pathetic Jaguars. The Chargers won’t have Joey Bosa for this game, and Austin Ekeler as well as center Corey Linsley look unlikely to play as well. It shouldn’t matter against Houston, even on the road. The Texans got a nice game out of Davis Mills last week, but he needs to be graded on a curve since it was against the Jaguars. The latest fun story out of Houston? General Manager Nick Caserio regularly communicates with head coach David Culley during games. Legal? Yes. Weird? Also yes.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Justin Jackson, who figures to have a heavier workload if Ekeler doesn’t play, is coming off a season-best 99 scrimmage yards (86 rush, 13 receiving) in Week 15.

-Brandin Cooks had 7 catches for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns last week and is bidding for his third game in a row with at least 7 catches and 100 yards.

The pick: Chargers 37 Texans 23

TV: FOX       Line: Seattle -6.5

Woof. That’s the best thing that can be said about the offenses in this game. The Bears are struggling mightily on that side, and Matt Nagy calling the plays definitely makes things worse. Chicago would be better served to lose out at this point, which would give them pick of the litter when it comes to impact offensive linemen. Speaking of teams that aren’t going anywhere, the Seahawks still look like a mess offensively, even if the officials were a major factor in their loss last week to the Rams. Seattle’s defense has been better, mostly owing to the fact that most of the teams they’ve played lately stink.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Chicago’s Robert Quinn, second in the league in sacks with 16, is one of just two players in the league this year (Nick Bosa and T.J. Watt) with 4+ games with 2 or more sacks this season.

-Bobby Wagner leads the NFL with 158 tackles, and the six-time first-team All-Pro should comfortably shatter his personal season-high of 167, set back in 2016.

The pick: Seahawks 20 Bears 14

TV: CBS       Line: Las Vegas -1

Denver got out-toughed by Cincinnati last week, but the thing that probably sealed the Broncos’ fate as much as anything was Teddy Bridgewater leaving the game with a concussion, an injury that will keep him out of this game. That means Drew Lock for Denver, which likely means lots and lots of carries for Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. The Raiders looked dead in the water late against the Browns, but Derek Carr worked a little late magic and Las Vegas stayed alive in the playoff race. The Raiders look like the better team here, particularly with Lock on the other side, but when has this franchise ever let being better on paper get in the way of suffering an inexcusable loss?

Look smart to your friends: 

-Williams, the third running back off the board in 2021, is second among all rookies in yards from scrimmage so far this season, with 1,103 (815 rushing, 288 receiving).

-Las Vegas’ defense is oft-maligned, but linebacker Denzel Perryman has 12 games with 7+ tackles this year, tied for second-most in the NFL.

The pick: Broncos 23 Raiders 20

TV: CBS       Line: Kansas City -7.5

Pittsburgh pulled off an improbable, historic win against the Tennessee Titans. In what way, you ask? NFL Network’s Aditi Kinkhabwala answered that. Anyway, Pittsburgh just keeps lingering around, always getting back up when left for dead, but at some point looking terrible on both sides of the ball for the majority of games has to catch up with them…right? Kansas City has been wrecked by COVID-19 and may be missing several players for this game, namely Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. If those two are indeed out, the Chiefs go from likely getting an easy win to fighting for their lives, because while Pittsburgh can’t stop the run, the Chiefs seem only mildly interested in running it.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Diontae Johnson has 5+ catches in nine straight games, which is good for the third-longest active streak in the NFL. He, along with Hill, is one of only two AFC receivers with 85+ catches, 1,000+ receiving yards, and 6+ receiving touchdowns this year.

-Patrick Mahomes is the second quarterback in league history, after Peyton Manning, with 4,000+ pass yards in four of his first five seasons.

The pick: Chiefs 27 Steelers 16

TV: NBC       Line: Dallas -10.5

Washington still has a whole boatload of COVID problems. It stands to reason that the Football Team will get some players back before this game, but at this point, will it even matter? The Cowboys are the class of the NFC East, and though they haven’t yet clinched the division, it is a foregone conclusion that they will. At this point, the Cowboys need to try and get as healthy as possible while getting in as much of an on-field role as they can before the postseason arrives.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Antonio Gibson has been a remarkably consistent producer for Washington; he’s one of only two running backs in the league this year – Leonard Fournette is the other – with 50+ yards from scrimmage in 12 games.

-Thanks to Trevon Diggs (10 interceptions) and Micah Parsons (12 sacks) the Cowboys are the sixth team since 1990 to have a player with 10+ interceptions and 10+ sacks in the same season.

The pick: Cowboys 27 Washington Football Team 21

TV: ESPN       Line: New Orleans -3

For all the handwringing about Tua Tagovailoa’s play, particularly early in the season, he has been on a roll of late, his average performance against the Jets last week notwithstanding. Miami has won six in a row, and while the Dolphins still have a tall mountain to climb, that they’ve dragged themselves to this point is a credit to Brian Flores. New Orleans delivered perhaps the signature defensive performance of the season last week, shutting out Tom Brady and the Bucs, but the Saints need to win out and get help in order to make the playoffs. Having said that, the winning out part is absolutely plausible, because after Miami, the Saints get the Panthers and Falcons.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Dealing with the Superdome crowd is a tough task, but Tagovailoa has 275+ pass yards and a 95+ passer rating in two of his last three starts on the road.

-Cameron Jordan’s two sacks last week allowed him to hit a big milestone. He now has 100.5 sacks, making him the fifth active player to reach 100 for his career.

The pick: Saints 24 Dolphins 14