Yardbarker's Ryan Fowler runs down the top NFL player prop bets for Week 4 and beyond.
All prop bets provided by BetOnline.ag and current as of Friday, September 27. For up-to-date prop lines, check out the BetOnline.ag site.
Over the past two weeks, the NFL has lost stars Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton and Saquon Barkley — just to name a few — for extended periods of time due to various injuries. This is why we can't have nice things. The trickle-down impact of Barkley's high-ankle sprain absence is that Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is now the favorite to win the 2019 Rookie of the Year Award at +200, while Arizona's rookie trigger, Kyler Murray, sits at +300. Barkley's elite rushing ability was supposed to take some pressure off Jones, but now the rookie out of Duke will be leaned on as the next man up.
All odds via BetOnline unless noted.
Odds: Over 62.5 (-115) | Under 62.5 (-115)
Now in his third season, Gallman has averaged 4.0 yards per carry on 169 attempts. Due to the Giants drafting Barkley last year, Gallman was demoted to a running back reserve before an injury replacement promotion last week. The Redskins allow 142 rush yards per game — fourth most in the league. If he can maintain his 4.0 yards per rush, Gallman would need 16 carries for the OVER to hit. His career-high is 15. I'll buy his stock against a poor rush defense.
The Bet: OVER
Odds: Yes (+350) | No (-650)
Through the first 58 minutes of their game against the Bengals last weekend, the Bills were held to 14 points. Cincinnati's defense is among the league's worst. New England's is among the league's best. The Bills best offense is their defense forcing, a turnover and handing Josh Allen a short field. I'm not sure the 2019 Patriots are in a position to be handing the Bills any turnover gifts as they seek another perfect campaign.
The Bet: sprinkle a little cash on YES
Odds: Yes (-300) | No (+200)
The 2018 Denver Broncos finished with 26 takeaways and 44 sacks. The 2019 Broncos have yet to record a sack or force a turnover through the first three games. It's funny because their first-year head coach, Nick Fangio, has been a defensive coordinator for the past two decades. Denver hosts Jacksonville and rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew this week. On their home turf, I like the Broncos to buck the trend.
The Bet: Yes
Odds: Dolphins (+160) | Heat (-120)
The Miami Heat's first regular season game is on Oct. 23. The Miami Dolphins play three more times before the Heat host a Memphis Grizzlies team that finished 33-49 last season. How you bet comes down to whether you think the Dolphins can beat the Washington Redskins in Week 6. For all their faults, the Redskins offense can shred the Dolphins defense.
The Bet: Heat
Odds: Yes (+200) | No (-300)
It's been a September to remember (or forget) for Antonio Brown. He's been fired twice, lashed out on social media, burned bridges and now he's heading back to school. He's reenrolled at Central Michigan University, and that appears to be his latest knee-jerk reaction to unemployment. Some think he's done playing football. Some think he'll be back. The WWE's XFL lives for drama, even if it's just for one game. This makes too much sense. Remember, Brown was a contestant on "The Masked Singer" once.
The Bet: Yes
Odds: Yes (+1,000) | No (-2,500)
Earlier this summer, the Buffalo Bills held a contest in which one lucky couple would win a wedding ceremony during halftime of this weekend's Patriots vs. Bills game. It's all part of the franchise's "Fantennial" weekend celebration, and if we know one thing, "Bills Mafia" loves a good party.
The Bet: Yes
Odds: Yes (-120) | No (-120)
Tampa Bay linebacker Shaq Barrett has eight sacks in three games. He's on pace for more than 42. Cleveland's Myles Garrett is second with six sacks. Barrett has already earned a $250,000 contract bonus with those eight sacks and can cash in another $250K with two more quarterback takedowns. Money talks, and he's got all the motivation in the world to lead the league, as the Buccaneers work toward rebuilding an NFC South contender.
The Bet: Yes
After Jones tossed two touchdowns in his NFL regular-season debut, he trailed only Mayfield 3-2 in this head-to-head prop matchup. However, the Browns quarterback features a much better receiving corps to work the ball around, which I think will benefit Mayfield in the long term. It's just a matter of finding the same groove he enjoyed for much of his rookie season. Where Jones could snipe this prop bet is due to the weak Giants defense. He'll get to air it out in comeback mode with more chances for garbage time touchdowns, which might not earn a win in the standings but would cash the prop.
The Bet: Mayfield
Odds: Adrian Peterson (-450) | Daniel Jones (+250)
This is a cold-blooded prop bet by oddsmakers. Adrian Peterson lost some goal line touches when the Redskins faced the Bears, and reporters caught an irked A.P. on the sidelines chomping at the bit to get into the game. Peterson was a healthy scratch Week 1 and while he did score a touchdown Week 2, he averaged only 2.5 yards per rush. Daniel Jones scored two rushing touchdowns last weekend at Tampa Bay, and I think with Wayne Gallman filling in for Saquon Barkley, the rookie quarterback will get to call his own number around the end zone again this week.
The Bet: Jones
Odds: Freddie Kitchens (-3,000) | Steve Wilks (+800) | Todd Monken (+1,000) | Mike McCarthy (+2,500)
Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam has been quick with a pink slip in the past, but to think he'd fire Freddie Kitchens before Week 8 seems to be a little bit of a stretch. At -3,000, oddsmakers agree. Popular opinion suggests Baker Mayfield wanted Kitchens to become the Browns head coach. So he was picked over defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who led the team as interim head coach during the Browns strong finish to the 2018 season. This is a nothing burger.
The Bet: Kitchens
Odds: Over 2.5 (EVEN) | Under 2.5 (-140)
These odds show a lot of respect toward the Lions secondary. Mahomes has tossed three or more touchdowns in each of the first three games, but oddsmakers are thinking two or fewer at Detroit. The Lions are allowing nearly 270 pass yards per game with four passing touchdowns this season, but they also boast the second-lowest completion percentage. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 54.8 percent of their passes. However, at EVEN odds, I think that's a little discount on Mahomes, who I believe may be impossible to contain within the dome.
The Bet: OVER
Odds: 5+ receptions (-130)
The Miami Dolphins are a lost cause until further notice. Their secondary cheated back to slow down Dak Prescott and the Cowboys passing game last week. If they try that same strategy against the Chargers, Ekeler is going to eat well. He's averaging better than six receptions per game and dropped only one pass through the first three games. With first-string running back Melvin Gordon set to return to action next week, I love this prop even more.
The Bet: 5+ receptions
Odds: 86+ Rush Yards (-196)
At -196, this is way too much juice to place on Cook to hit 86-plus rush yards against a top-five rush defense. While Cook is averaging 125 rush yards per game, the Bears defense has allowed fewer than 69 per game. If you stripped out Cook's three longest runs of the season, he's averaging 84 rush yards per game. So for 86-plus rush yards prop bet to hit, you're banking on Cook busting another long run. I don't think that's happening at Chicago and even if I thought there was a chance, to wager $196 to win $100 seems too risky.
The Bet: avoid this prop bet
Odds: 5+ (+183)
Due to a lackluster running game and playing from behind, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has embraced the air game through the first three weeks. With A.J. Green still injured, his top target has been John Ross. The third-year receiver is averaging 97.3 yards per game. Although he was held to just 22 yards against the Bills, odds are he bounces back against a Steelers Swiss cheese secondary. If not for five 49ers turnovers last weekend, Pittsburgh would have been rocked. This is a great spot for Ross and I expect him to earn 10-plus targets and catch five-plus balls to cash in at +183.
The Bet: 5+ receptions
Odds: 66+ (-115)
On top of averaging 85.6 receiving yards per game, the rookie receiver out of Ohio State has scored a touchdown in each of the Redskins' first three games. This week he gets a delicious matchup against the league's worst pass defense. The New York Giants allow more than 330 pass yards per game. Case Keenum, though far from perfect, is finding McLaurin and will again this weekend.
The Bet: Yes, 66+ yards
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