The duality of rebuilds:
Since the 25 season playoff streak ended in 2016, it is fair to say that the Detroit Red Wings have been rebuilding. The Wings hired legend and 2014-15 General Manager of the year Steve Yzerman in 2019 and since then, this team has become a young exciting team that doesn’t look too far off the playoffs. With that being said, history has shown that being a young and exciting rebuilding team doesn’t equate always to success
Take the Edmonton Oilers for example, despite the four first overall picks in six years, all the team has to show for it is a measly playoff series win. Even now, the team is out of a playoff spot with two of the best players in the sport. Or take the Buffalo Sabers, a team that recently traded a player who had been mentioned with the likes of Connor McDavid prior to the 2015 draft. This isn’t just exclusive to hockey, take the Philadelphia 76ers, a team that has underachieved even though they actively stated that the organization was tanking. These are teams that could be considered “perpetual rebuilders”.
In contrast, the Toronto Blue Jays are a team that has rebuilt a team correctly. In 2016, the team made their second American League Championship Series. However, the new front office knew it was time for a rebuilding period as they had the oldest team in professional baseball. Through great draft picks (such as Bo Bichette and Alek Manoah), savvy free agent signings (such as Hyun-Jin Ryu and George Springer) and trading for young players with upside (such as Jose Berrios and Teoscar Hernandez), the team is primed to be a sustainable contender for years to come.
It can also be done in hockey. Look no further than former rival, the Colorado Avalanche. While the team has had high picks in the 2010s, there were certain trades that helped expedite their rebuild. The greatest example of this was trading Matt Duchene as they received a package of eight assets. Two of these assets have become a staple on the Avs defense, as they received Sam Girard and the draft pick that led to Bowen Bryam. This transitioned into another fantastic trade by the Avs, as it made Tyson Barrie available. In return for Barrie and Kerfoot, they received Nazem Kadri, who leads the Avs in points with 51.
The Red Wings must avoid a losing culture:
Let’s use this opportunity to make fun of the Oilers again. With tanking comes a certain expectation that a team will lose. The longest tenured Oiler is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and he has spent eleven seasons with the Edmonton Oilers. In that time, he has only one series win to show for it. Despite their current struggles, the Oilers front office is terrified of firing their seventh coach in ten years even though it could drastically improve their odds of making the playoffs. This can be attributed to the losing culture that the team has built over the past decade.
Intentionally losing may improve a team’s chance of getting a generational superstar, but it is also a tell to the fans, the players and the front office that losing is acceptable. What’s worse is that unless the player is Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews, the player the team picks may not even pan out. An example of this can be found in Edmonton’s #3 overall pick, Nail Yakupov.
Analytics will help to find high value contracts on a low budget:
Luckily for the Detroit Red Wings, Steve Yzerman and his front office has cleared all the bad contracts that the former General Manager left him with. According to PuckPedia, the Wings currently have $10,836,268 in cap space remaining this season. The team could have a further 10.5 million with Nick Leddy and Danny DeKeyser’s contracts coming off the books after the season ends. That begs the question, how could the Red Wings replace two key players?
One of the most important needs a front office has to have is an analytics department. The Toronto Maple Leafs were much like the Edmonton Oilers as they failed to make the playoffs for nearly a decade. However, the team is looking like one of the contenders in a tough Atlantic Division. While the team was certainly helped by drafting Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, the Leafs have done well to sign players which has helped them move past the losing culture.
Zach Hyman left the Leafs in the 2021 off season, signing a seven year, 38.5 million dollar contract. Even though the 29-year-old put up 33 points in 43 games in 2020, the Leafs were not able to afford his new contract. Instead, they went with a 26-year-old who had great advanced analytical stats despite only playing 26 NHL games.
Michael Bunting was drafted 117th in 2014 by the Arizona Coyotes. In his 26 prior NHL games for the Yotes, the left winger scored 11 goals and 14 points. While that is a small sample size, the Leafs liked what they saw and signed Bunting to a two year, 1.9 million dollar contract. In return, he has 9 goals and 24 points in 37 games played this season. In comparison, Zach Hyman has 11 goals, 21 points in 32 games this season.
Using advanced analytics, the Detroit Red Wings will be able to find high valued signings while preserving their cap for bigger free agents.
Trading for high value pieces:
When a player like Jakob Chychrun becomes available, every single NHL team should be looking to acquire the 23-year-old. In 2020-21, the left-shot defenseman registered 18 goals and 41 points in 56 games. While his pace has slowed this season, the potential to become an even better defender is certainly there with Chychrun. Per PuckPedia, Jakob Chychrun is making 4,600,000 a year for an additional three years. That means that the 23-year-old is on a great contract until 2025.
According to Jeff Marek on his podcast (9:20 on January 19th’s episode ), Arizona is looking for a Brent Burns type deal, where they’d receive a pick, a prospect and a player. Detroit’s first round pick has incredible value since the team is rebuilding, but adding a protection could help mitigate risk. Furthermore, Detroit has a lot of valuable prospects and NHL players that could get this deal done.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/marek-friedman-goalie-market-roundup/id354153569?i=1000548386371
While this may sound way too much for a team that is currently rebuilding, it is important to keep in mind that a team will truly never know what they have in a prospect until they play in the NHL. Two assets in this hypothetical trade may or may turn into NHL players, but Detroit would know what they’re getting in Chychrun.
A trade for Chychrun would accelerate the rebuild, showing fans that this team will be a contender sooner rather than later. In terms of the player the Wings would receive, Detroit would be trading for a high potential left handed shot defenseman on a great contract.
Conclusion:
The most important part of a sports team’s rebuild is to not fall into a losing culture. While drafting is the best route to rebuild, it is important that the Red Wings be proactive in decisions regarding improving the team through other means. This could be from signing low cost – high value players using their analytics department, trading for young players with high potential or signing players with their abundance of cap.
Hey there! I’m a new writer for WingsNation. I also write for JetsNation and Blue Jays Nation. As a former Oilers fan, I am looking for a breath of fresh air in hockey and I’m incredibly excited to see where the Wings can go! If you’d like to stay up to date on my activities, my Twitter handle is @Brennan_L_D.
More must-reads: