Breaking down the 2023 Stanley Cup Final goalie matchup

Raise your hand if you predicted Adin Hill versus Sergei Bobrovsky in the Stanley Cup Final.

No? Fear not. No one else did. But that’s what makes the 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoffs so intriguing. Hill has elevated his game to new heights with the Golden Knights. And Bobrovsky continues to rewrite the narrative that his $10M-a-year contract was a waste of money for the Panthers.

Both goaltenders have been excellent, well outpacing their performance during the regular season. Can Hill and Bobrovsky keep it up? Does one netminder have an advantage? Read on for the full analysis.

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS vs FLORIDA PANTHERS

Vegas Golden Knights

Adin Hill

2022-23 regular season: 16-7-1, 2.50 GAA, .915 Sv%, one shutouts

2022-23 playoffs: 7-3, 2.07 GAA, .937 Sv%, two shutouts

Career playoffs: 7-3, 2.07 GAA, .937 Sv%, two shutouts

Jonathan Quick

2022-23 regular season: (LAK) 11-13-4, 3.50 GAA, .876 Sv%, one shutout

2022-23 regular season: (VGK) 5-2-2, 3.13 GAA, .901 Sv%, one shutout

Career playoffs: 49-43, 2.31 GAA, .921 Sv%, 10 shutouts, 2012 & 2014 Stanley Cup champion, 2012 Conn Smythe Trophy

Logan Thompson

2022-23 regular season: 21-13-3, 2.65 GAA, .915 Sv%, two shutouts

Career playoffs: none

Florida Panthers

Sergei Bobrovsky

2022-23 regular season: 24-20-3, 3.07 GAA, .901, one shutout

2022-23 playoffs: 11-2, 2.21 GAA, .935 Sv%, one shutout

Career playoffs: 28-31, 2.91 GAA, .909 Sv%, one shutout

Alex Lyon

2022-23 regular season: 9-4-2, 2.89 GAA, .914 Sv%, one shutout

2022-23 playoffs: 1-2, 3.26 GAA, .902 Sv%, zero shutouts

Career playoffs: 1-2, 3.26 GAA, .902 Sv%, zero shutouts

What a year it’s been for Hill. From being traded for the second time in two short years, to being the No.1 netminder for the Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final. Few would have predicted his ascension.

Sure, it took some extenuating circumstances. Had Vegas goaltenders Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit not gotten injured, Hill might still be in the press box. But the reality is once Hill took over the Golden Knights crease during the second-round series against the Edmonton Oilers, he’s been phenomenal.

Hill posted two shutouts in Round 3 against the Dallas Stars and allowed just 12 goals in six games. But beyond the statistics, it’s the way Hill is playing that gives his teammates confidence.

There has been a tangible change to Hill’s game throughout the 2022-23 season. The first several months saw him flailing around the crease, often ending up on his backside swimming for loose pucks. But things started to turn for Hill in the calendar year of 2023 when he got the chance to play multiple games in a row.

For me, Hill’s greatest strength is how he reads the shot off the blade. And when combined with excellent hand-eye coordination, it’s an asset most goaltenders would be jealous of. And the more Hill plays, the better he is. Getting on a roll during the Stanley Cup playoffs hasn’t been a fluke in my eyes.

I’ve seen Hill dominate a playoff series previously – albeit in the AHL with the Tucson Roadrunners. And again the key was this: it was his net. That’s the case now for Hill in Vegas. He’s the undisputed No. 1 at this point.

But the challenging aspect of Hill’s game is his skating. It’s always been a work in progress. And the relative lack of footspeed and precision has made the Golden Knights netminder chase the game at times.

Vegas goalie coach Sean Burke deserves credit for molding Hill into a patient goaltender that lets the play come to him. Using an inside-out approach, the Golden Knights netminder is now scrambling only when necessary.

The challenge for Hill going up against the Panthers will be different than what he just faced against the Stars. Florida was able to get to inside ice against the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Final – something Dallas had trouble doing against the Golden Knights.

To me, the Panthers offense is something of a hybrid between the Stars and the Oilers. Florida is creative with the puck. Carter Verhaeghe has one of the most dangerous releases in the NHL. Their power play is humming along at just under 28 percent and the Cats can score on the rush. 

Florida will do everything possible to get inside and make Hill move laterally. Holes open when the Golden Knights netminder is in motion. And the Panthers thrive on netfront chaos. Controlling rebounds will be at a premium for Hill.

But I think the most dangerous aspect of Florida’s offensive attack is that it shows up when most needed. Forward Matthew Tkachuk has been a nightmare for opposing goaltenders. Not only is he capable of scoring game-winning overtime goals, but he’s also a pest of the highest order in front of the net. Hill will have to fight for every sightline against the Panthers.

For Bobrovsky, I think his biggest challenge will be making saves against the Golden Knights rush. Which is very different from what he just faced in the Eastern Conference Final against the Carolina Hurricanes.

Vegas is not a great power-play team. Nor do they have the greatest possession metrics. But the best version of the Golden Knights moves through the neutral zone with ease and attacks the net in waves. The team has players like Chandler Stevenson and Jack Eichel that love to enter the zone with the puck on their blades. And they have the creativity to make teams pay.

Even strength hockey is where Vegas excels: during 5-on-5 play, the Golden Knights lead the 2022-23 postseason with 48 goals in 17 games. And Vegas was the least penalized team in the NHL during the regular season. So the Panthers – and Bobrovsky – don’t have much room for error at even strength.

Against Carolina, Bobrovsky faced a spray-and-pray Hurricanes offense that featured shots from everywhere in the offensive zone. Traffic was expected to play a big part in the series, but the Hurricanes were never able to solve Bobrovsky from a distance. And he did a nice job of controlling rebounds in tight.

Surprisingly enough, from talking to several people within the Hurricanes organization, there wasn’t much of a game plan for Bobrovsky other than to shoot high and shoot often. But the prevailing thought was that the Panthers netminder did a good job of adjusting, often elevating his entire body into shots destined for the upper portion of the net.

I agree. But I also think the Golden Knights need to be smarter in their approach than Carolina. Bobrovsky struggles on low-slot, side-to-side puck movement. He can be overly explosive and he tends to push past his posts when desperation sets in.

Vegas has been successful thus far in the Stanley Cup playoffs with quick plays in tight. Especially winger Jonathan Marchessault, who has goals in four of the past five Golden Knights contests. He’s been fantastic around the crease.

But here’s what makes me bullish on Bobrovsky: Vegas has yet to face strong goaltending during the 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoffs. Stars goalie Jake Oettinger didn’t play up to his potential. And the Oilers tandem of Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell didn’t provide much of an obstacle. Even Winnipeg Jets backstop Connor Hellebuyck looked pedestrian against Vegas.

Bobrovsky has been on such a roll after knocking off the Boston Bruins in the first round that it’s hard to imagine his play sharply dropping off. He’s reading shots extremely well and fighting through traffic much better than he did during the 2022-23 regular season.

The Panthers netminder has gotten better with every round. And he’s still one of the most dynamic goaltenders on Earth. Bobrovsky has already made several massive, lunging saves look easy this postseason.

It’s a byproduct of playing under control. And if you listen to Bobrovsky in his post-game press conferences, he has a very zen-like demeanor. He’s incredibly focused. And I think he’s driven to prove a lot of people wrong.

Hill and Bobrovsky are very different goaltenders. But they’re both playing arguably the best hockey of their careers. If I had to wager a bet, I think the series will come down to which netminder allows the least amount of goals in overtime.

I’m certain that big saves will define the 2023 Stanley Cup Final. And I can’t wait to see which goaltender prevails. There are plenty of reasons to root for both Hill and Bobrovsky.