Top 10 Norris Trophy candidates for 2023-24

The debates. The eye test. The analytics. The headaches. No major NHL Award fires people up nowadays like the Norris Trophy. The voting process is just so subjective. We Professional Hockey Writers Association members define the Norris as the defenseman “who demonstrates the greatest all-around ability in the position.” Does it mean all-round skill on offense and defense, in the mold of someone like Adam Fox or Charlie McAvoy? Or does it mean all-around impact, whether that impact skews greater on offense or defense? The latter perception won Erik Karlsson his third Norris last season. He became the first blueliner in more than 30 years to reach 100 points but did so while playing decidedly subpar defense.

Since the weighting of the criteria, and the voters’ ability to agree on those criteria, seemingly shift every year, the Norris winner isn’t the easiest to predict. The safest bets tend to be the D-men who dominate in every facet of the game.

Here are my top 10 Norris Trophy candidates, with Betano odds included in brackets.

1. Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche (+190)

Kudos to Karlsson’s tremendous achievement last year, but the only thing stopping Makar from winning his second Norris last season was the ‘GP’ column. Makar only logged 60 games but was a dominant as ever when he took the ice. He scored at a 90-point pace, and the Avs generated 191 more 5-on-5 scoring chances than they allowed with him on the ice. Sometimes, the blinding light that is Connor McDavid overshadows the fact Makar is generationally great in his own right, already a two-time first-team all-star, three-time Norris finalist and one-time winner by 24 years old. He’ll likely win at least a couple more Norrises before his career is up.

2. Adam Fox, New York Rangers (+500)

Fox doesn’t quite have the nuclear offensive ceiling of a Makar or Karlsson, but Fox might fit the “all-around” definition of Norris Trophy winner better than anyone. Not only does he consistently post elite offensive numbers, but he also ranks among the league’s best in most defensive metrics. He’s a pretty prolific shot blocker to boot. The Rangers outscored opponents 69-47 with Fox on the ice at 5-on-5 in 2022-23. He has a Norris and a pair of first-team all-star nods to his name and should continue jockeying with Makar for years to come.

3. Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars (+700)

If we subscribe to the “he’s due” theory about voter tendencies, we should consider Heiskanen a major contender. He’s an all-situations horse who makes major contributions at 5-on-5 and on special teams. All that was missing in his profile was the big offensive explosion, and that arrived last season in Year 1 of coach Pete DeBoer, a.k.a. the Defenseman Whisperer. Fresh off a career-high 73 points, logging elite minutes against opponents’ best players and competing on a Stanley Cup contender, Heiskanen, 24, could finally break through for a Norris nod in 2023-24.

4. Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres (+1000)

Dahlin was hyped as perhaps the century’s greatest blueline prospect, the next Nicklas Lidstrom, when the Sabres drafted him first overall in 2018. It took him a few years to grow into stardom, which is common for big, high-pedigree blueliners. He put it all together for a powerhouse performance in 2022-23, a season in which he was still younger than many rookies. Dahlin has the scintillating offensive numbers to attract voter attention now, and it’s possible last season’s 73 points aren’t even close to what will go down as his career-best output. Dahlin, like the rest of his young Buffalo teammates, just has to figure out the defensive side of his game a bit more. He has made strides in that area but must clean up his 1-on-1 defense and in particular his discipline before he takes home a Norris.

5. Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks (+1400)

The new Canucks captain attracts plenty of attention for his incredible puck-moving ability. Last season, he became the first defenseman in 29 years to record consecutive 60-assist seasons. But Hughes is also improving on the defensive side of the puck. Last season, among 211 defensemen who played at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5, he ranked 45^th in on-ice scoring chances against per 60, landing him in the 79^th percentile, right behind Hamilton. Hughes’ tremendous offensive ability is never in question, and if he can continue to improve his all-around impact, he’s a legitimate Norris sleeper, one of the few who can compete with Makar in the raw talent category.

6. Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins (+1400)

For anyone who believes the Norris should skew more toward D-men who shut down the opposition, McAvoy deserves love. He has a nastiness to his game with the smothering ability of a Jaccob Slavin but still qualifies as a high-end puck mover. McAvoy is coming off a season in which his defensive play actually slipped a bit, and he needs to show he can stay healthy after shoulder surgery cost him the start of last season. But with the Bruins losing so many crucial personnel this offseason, McAvoy has an opportunity to take the team by the reins and become a true alpha, Norris-caliber blueliner.

7. Dougie Hamilton, New Jersey Devils (+1700)

If you ask some old-school thinkers, the eye test doesn’t typically favor the easygoing Hamilton, whose body language rarely projects urgency. The analytics, on the other hand, suggest Hamilton has been criminally underrated his entire career. He’s an absolute machine when it comes to generating chances. Only two D-men had a higher on-ice scoring chance for percentage than Hamilton last year. He exploded for career highs of 22 goals and 74 points last season and is positioned for another monster year on a loaded Devils team full of star players entering their primes. Working against Hamilton’s Norris hopes is the fact that he’s still likely to be outscored by someone at his position and out-defended by several others. His all-around impact is great, but he won’t deliver a God-tier season.

8. Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh Penguins (+1000)

Karlsson deserves serious props for a legendary comeback campaign and one of the greatest offensive performances by a blueliner – ever. But he had missed 27 percent of the San Jose Sharks’ games in his first four seasons with the team – before playing all 82 games at 32 years old. He also was likely selling out for offense – at the expense of his defense – with little to play for on a bad Sharks team. Now he joins a Penguins team hellbent on contending. It’s unlikely Karlsson freewheels quite as much as he did last season and equally unlikely he plays a full season again. He’s obviously still a great acquisition and should improve the Penguins, but if he doesn’t deliver another eye-popping stat line, his defensive play isn’t strong enough to prop up his Norris case again.

9. Roman Josi, Nashville Predators (+1400)

Josi is a treat to watch, a rover who functions like as an extra forward and controls the Predators’ attack like a point guard. Everything runs through Josi, who has a 2019-20 Norris win and 2021-22 runner-up finish. But only one defenseman has ever won the award competing on a non-playoff team, albeit it was Fox in 2020-21. The Predators are fresh off a playoff miss and in the midst of a retool. They’re a long shot to climb back into the big dance this coming season. With a weaker supporting cast than he’s had in a long time, Josi’s scoring numbers might also continue to fall off from his incredible 96-point campaign of two years ago. His Norris arrow is trending downward despite his immense talent.

10. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning (+2400)

I can understand anyone arguing that Hedman’s teammate, Mikhail Sergachev, should appear in this spot instead. But I’m not quite ready to give up on the future Hall of Famer Hedman. No NHLer logged more minutes than Hedman between 2019-20 through the end of 2021-22, when the Lightning reached three straight Stanley Cup Finals, winning two. Their April exit last spring could thus be a boon. It may have finally given Hedman the required time not just to heal from his wear and tear, but also build his body back up, something he hadn’t been able to do in all those shortened offseasons, as he told me last season. At 32, I think a healthy, rested Hedman can still be an all-situations horse for one more season. If it sounds like a stretch, might I remind you of what Mr. Karlsson just accomplished?