Why it isn't wise to trust playoff probability statistics

Is your favorite team going to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs? Should you consult myriad statistical probability charts that exist all across the internet? Which one should you trust?

My answer: none of them. Because all those fancy charts, graphs, and statistical calculations — they’re just numbers. And they’re constantly in flux.

In today’s world, vast amounts of information are available with one or two clicks. It’s almost scary how quickly we can educate ourselves on any given topic. But that same ease of access can also drive us crazy. 

I think it’s easy for people to get caught up in the mathematical probabilities of winning and losing, of making — or failing to reach — the Stanley Cup Playoffs. If you choose, like me, to spend your free time on Twitter, life can come at you really fast.

Because one day, your favorite team is in the gutter with a 20% chance of making the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Then a week later, that same team suddenly has better than 50% odds of playing in the postseason.

Statistical analysis is a funny thing because it’s only real for a short amount of time. Variables change daily, sometimes by the second, in the NHL. The algorithms never lie, but they also aren’t capable of telling the full, accurate story until every team has played 82 games.

I think the best example this season is the Vegas Golden Knights. In the past month, I’ve seen so many different probabilities of that team making the Stanley Cup Playoffs that I’ve given up trying to make sense of what I’m reading.

According to some models that popped up around the NHL trade deadline, Vegas should have sold the farm because the odds of making the postseason weren’t very good. And truthfully, with all the injuries they have endured this season, it might not have been a bad idea. But the Golden Knights have managed to stay in the race. And despite long odds, there is a very real chance that they land a spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Why? Because every team in the NHL is capable of collapsing during the remaining 10 or 15 games left on their schedule.

I know because I’ve seen it firsthand. On Mar. 6, 2018, I was called up to the Dallas Stars from their AHL affiliate in Cedar Park, Texas. At that point, Dallas had played 66 games and earned 80 points, good enough for the first wild-card slot in the NHL’s Western Conference.

The Los Angeles Kings trailed with 77 points, and the Colorado Avalanche were at 76. Behind them, the St. Louis Blues had earned 75 points. At that moment, the probability of our Dallas team making the Stanley Cup Playoffs was incredibly high.

And then the bottom fell out. We went 5-9-2 to finish the 2017-18 season, including a disastrous 10-game losing streak. We lost eight games in a row on home ice. Nothing went right for nearly a month. And it ultimately cost our head coach, Ken Hitchcock, his job.

While our Stars team was plummeting in the standings, Los Angeles kept winning. The Kings went 6-2-2 to finish the 2017-18 regular season. They finished with 98 points, easily making the Stanley Cup playoffs.

But what happened with Colorado was tough to accept. The Avalanche posted a record of 4-5-1 to finish out the season. They limped across the finish line with stunning mediocrity. Yet Colorado made the Stanley Cup Playoffs with 95 points, one ahead of the Blues and three ahead of us in Dallas.

Colorado shouldn’t have made the postseason that year. But we blew it in Dallas. We needed 16 out of 32 points to finish out the season. We got 12. It was an epic collapse. It hurt. And it caught a lot of us by surprise, because it seemed like a statistical certainty that we would make it.

But things change quickly in hockey. When we lost a few games in a row, no one was really worried. We all expected to bounce back. Maybe go on a small winning streak and get back to where we thought we belonged in the standings.

The problem was: we didn’t belong there. Several dreadful games affected our confidence in high-stress situations. Doubt seeped in. 

We ended up winning three of our last four games, but it didn’t matter. By the time we got things back on track, it was too late.

So every time I see someone prognosticating about how a team is or isn’t going to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs because of the mathematics involved, I laugh. Because I’ve lived it. I’ve seen firsthand how a team can completely implode.

Something similar has to happen for Vegas to make the postseason. Either the Nashville Predators, Dallas Stars or L.A. Kings will need to go on a major slide. And the Golden Knights will have to earn victories against several tough opponents down the stretch.

Statistically speaking, it’s not probable. But the statistics can change in an instant. My story is a good reminder: anything can happen.