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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s comments about his contract are a big red flag

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s comments about his contract are a big red flag

By Adam Gretz | Last updated Sep 24, 2026 8:02 AM ET

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There has always been a perception among some sports fans that when a player signs a big-money contract, they will all of a sudden lose their desire to keep getting better and producing. It's almost always a misconception because professional athletes, no matter the sport, do not make it to the highest level by ever becoming complacent at that level.

Professional athletes are not wired like the fans who watch them and the media that covers them, and it's a big part of why they make it as far as they do.

Sure, athletic ability and talent are a primary part of it, but it's not the only thing. It can't be the only thing. Talent might help you get there, but it's not going to keep you there without work, and it's not going to take you to the highest level.

There is a desire and competitiveness that most people simply do not have.

Professional athletes don't typically lose that mindset.

But Toronto Blue Jays fans might have some reason to be concerned about their best player and highest-paid player, based on what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. said about his 14-year, $500 million contract this week.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is wrong about his contract

The comment that is getting the most attention is Guerrero Jr.'s belief that his contract is paying him for what he has already done for Toronto, and not a representation of what he will do or should be doing:

"The contract I got was based on what I did, not necessarily for what I’m going to do. I understand why the fans believe it’s the other way around. Sometimes I think that way too, like 'oh they give me this money and I’m not doing enough,' but you know I try my best and I’m working hard," Guerrero said.

There is no way to put it other than to say he is flat-out wrong about that.

There is not a single professional sports team, in any professional sports league, that is paying players for what they already did or for the player they were years ago.

They are 100% paying for what a player is going to do right now and will do in the future.

That is why major league teams are investing $100 million dollar contracts into players who are still in the minor leagues or are just making their debuts.

It is why a player's age and their upside are primary driving factors in contract negotiations.

It is why older players on the other side of 30 rarely get big-money deals, no matter what they have already done.

Guerrero Jr. has been one of the best hitters in baseball for the first seven years of his career and played a key role in helping the team reach the World Series in 2025. They were able to keep him in Toronto with a $500 million contract extension, with the assumption that he would continue to be a middle-of-the-order force.

Given what he has already done, as well as the fact that he is only 27 years old this season and, in theory, still in the prime years of his career, it was a great and reasonable assumption.

But in the first year of his new deal, Guerrero Jr.'s numbers have hit all-time personal lows across the board. Entering play on Wednesday, he was hitting just .263 this season with a .695 OPS and only nine home runs.

While far from the only reason, it is a big reason the team is going to miss the playoffs.

Maybe his comments are just his way of trying to cope with a frustrating season. It's certainly possible.

Maybe he actually believes it.

Given his track record, there's certainly a great chance he bounces back next season. It should be expected.

If he doesn't, and if he comes back with another down year, it should give Blue Jays fans some serious concern that maybe they have already seen the best of him. And it should give the Blue Jays some concern that maybe he has the wrong approach and that the team isn't expecting him to produce the way he always has. They absolutely are expecting that.

Adam Gretz

Adam Gretz is a freelance writer based in Pittsburgh. He covers the NHL, NFL, MLB and NBA. Baseball is his favorite sport -- he is nearly halfway through his goal of seeing a game in every MLB ballpark. Catch him on X @AGretz

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