Originally posted on Football Nation  |  Last updated 4/26/12
Robert Griffin III to Washington Redskins: Better Luck Next Time

This is not a surprising pick. It's just going to be disappointing.

People have been discussing Robert Griffin III for months now. There has been a great deal of discussion about whether RGIII or Andrew Luck is going to be the better pick. This is likely to continue, but not due to RGIII outstanding success. Instead, Andrew Luck's future will be in doubt until the Colts demonstrate they can build a team around him.

Griffin, though is going to be much clearer. There is a glaring pattern that should be concerning a lot of people and people are just not noticing it.

Commentators have gotten spooked. A vast majority looked at Cam Newton last year and announced that he was a horrible pick. They went on and on about how he would never make it as an NFL quarterback. Cam Newton then proceeded to come out and have one of the best rookie seasons ever. Commentators looked bad. National columnists appeared to have no clue of what they were doing. Now a similar type of quarterback comes up in the 2012 draft and everyone is looking back and fearing similar results for 2012.

People don't want to be wrong twice... They're going to be.

Some things to consider...

1) RGIII is not a newcomer. He has been the quarterback for the Baylor Bears for four years. Why are we only hearing about him in 2011? He gets a free pass for 2009 due to a season ending injury. But 2008 and 2010, while good statistical years, were not good years for the team.

2) Let's assume that he really developed in 2011 and has built himself into a quarterback to build a team around. Look at the 2011 season, most notably, the road games. They played four. The team went one and three. And it was not just a case of one diamond in a pile of muck, either. Griffin was instrumental in those losses. The one win he had on the road, required a three touchdown comeback in the fourth quarter against Kansas. For those of you who can't remember much about Kansas, don't feel bad. They're not worth remembering. In basketball, they are a powerhouse. In football, one day they hope to be good enough to be called embarrassing. None of these four teams has a pass defense better than 95th in college football. Yet, Griffin found ways to lose to them.

He did have some marvelous games in 2011, but he never had to play against a top 10 defense... or top 20... or top 30 for that matter. The best pass defense Baylor ran into was Texas at 38.

3) The 2011 season suggests an emotional problem rather than a physical one. When there is a noted difference between the home and road records, the question has to be asked "why?" This type of history suggests he is affected by negative crowds. Are there any negative crowds in the NFC East? Couple this with the fact that Washington has already had such outstanding success with emotional quarterbacks. Look at the stellar play of the likes of Rex Grossman and Donovan McNabb. Washington will accept him with open arms... right up until the first key interception or stunningly bad performance on the road.

Looking at the physical attributes, this would appear to be a good gamble. But make no mistake. disaster looms for Washington.

When preparing to draft another starting quarterback for Washington, better luck next time. 

For more pointed comments and comprehensive draft coverage, Check out FN's Bill Enright live from Radio City Music Hall, as well as Football Nation's draft coverage on Sirius 210 or xm 87    

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