Cubs WAR and 2010

I really hesitated to do this post, because I simply don’t know what I’m talking about. But I figure what the hell else are we gonna talk about until spring. According to THT’s Pwins, the Cubs were an 84 win club in 2009. Listed here are some Cub players WAR for 2009, (with 2008 in parenthesis) Geovany Soto 1.3 (4.6), Soriano -.8 (3.1), Aramis Ramirez 2.6 (4.7), Bradley- 1.1 (4.5), Lee- 5.3 (3.1), Harden- 1.8, (4.4), Baker- 1.4 (.6), Fontenot- .5 (3.1) What I’m going to do is look at what 2010 could be like with the subtractions of Bradley and Harden, and then some other additions and subtractions from other player contributions. The methodology here is likely (very) poor. Subtractions Milton Bradley and Rich Harden underperformed in 2009 based on WAR expectations. Since neither of them is likely to be on the 2010 Cubs, I’m going to ignore what they’d do in 2010. Derek Lee had his best year since 2005 despite being projected to continue his decline. He had a great year, and while he might have another great year, we should expect some regression. Here’s where I start (conservatively) pulling numbers out of my ass: 2009 Cubs: 84 -Bradley 1.1 -Harden 1.8 -Lee 1.5 (Here I’ve projected Lee to provide 3.8 WAR in 2010 based on no methodology whatsoever. He was worth 5.3 in 2009 minus the 3.8 I project in 2010, leaving me with 1.5) Total Subtraction: 4.4 Total after subtractions: 79.6 or 80 wins Additions Now I’m going to start adding WAR conservatively, but out of my ass (OOA proj.). OOA projected 2010 WAR (net increase) Geo Soto: 2.5 (1.2) Alfonso Soriano: 2.5 (3.3) Aramis Ramirez: 3.7 (1.1)- due to increased PA Jeff Baker: 2 (.6)- due to increased PA (Platoon 2B Font. Replacement): 1.5 (1) Total Addition: 7.2 Total after additions: 87.2 or 87 wins I tried to stay fairly conservative with the projections so as not to trick myself. It’s not that difficult to see Soriano and Soto each providing 2.5 WAR. In Soriano’s case, if he does, he’ll provide an increase of 3.8(!) WAR all by himself, considering that he was worth -.8 this year. In fact, if Soriano and Soto were each worth 3 WAR in 2010, that adds another whole win. 87 wins puts you right in the middle of the NL Central. Lastly, I’m sure that I should have included the additions and subtractions of other players. The ones I highlighted are either leaving or should improve. The only addition I included was a platoon partner for Baker, who could even be Fontenot himself and should still improve over Font’s massive .5 WAR this year. If the Cubs acquire any players this offseason, they have the opportunity to improve even more.