MLB Outsider - In Which We Examine Closers

Not too long ago, Cubs closer Kevin Gregg came in to face the Detroit Tigers. He managed to get one of the three necessary outs before serving up a game-losing, two-run homerun to pinch hitter Ryan Ratburn. I doubt Gregg had even finished his walk of shame back to the clubhouse before Cub fans were spewing all over the internets their disdain for the closer, who has been other-than-reliable this season.The thing is, he actually hasn't been so bad. It's just that he's pitching under a microscope since the Cubs rarely seem to so much as reach the 9th inning with a lead these days. Anyway, something one reader said really stuck with me. He felt that any closer should blow no more than 3 saves a season. Unfortunately, that is a tremendously unrealistic expectation.I always defer to Randy Myers, retired closer, who once said that if he saves 80% of all opportunities then he's doing his job. If the average closer gets 40 chances a year, that means he's saving 32 and blowing 8. If we look back at the past 5-or-so baseball seasons, there have been 77 closers to save 30 games or more in a season. (For those of you either mathematically disadvantaged -- or just plain lazy -- that's an average of 15 a season.) Of those 77, only 15 blew 3 games or fewer - an average of 3 a year. And even the very best closers -- the Trevor Hoffmans, Mariano Riveras, and Billy Wagners of the world -- tend to save no more than 90% of their games. Hoffman, for example, has had a 91% success rate since 2002, Rivera has had a 91% rate as well, and Wagner comes in at 88%. Do the math - that means that if those three elite closers had 40 chances in a season, they'd save 36 and still wind up with 4 blown. In other words, on that rare year when you have a closer who goes without a blown save, or who blows only 1 or 2 games, then it is something exceptional. It isn't the norm; not even close. Besides, if we were to take a look at the World Champions of the past half decade, we'd find that only two had closers with 3 blown saves or less during the regular season -- the '07 Red Sox and the '08 Phillies. Therefore, I submit to you the idea that an average closer saves 80% of his games, an elite saves 90%, and an MVP-level closer saves 95% or better. So this time, at least, Kevin Gregg is off the hook.Now, if he blows his next two or three games....