Indianapolis Colts (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7)
The Lions are in a bad spot and normally this is the type of team I like to stay away from. They are favorites after a loss as dogs and will next be dogs. Last week, they lost to the Texans and next week they have to go to Green Bay. That’s called a sandwich game. Teams tend to take it easy in the middle part of that 3 game stretch because they are coming off a tough loss and have another tough game next on the schedule, with an easier game in the middle. Teams are 59-83 ATS in this spot since 2008.
It especially hurts that this game is a non-conference matchup and that their next game is against a divisional opponent, especially since a hated divisional opponent like the Packers. Non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs are 32-61 ATS since 2002 and teams have tended to struggle before playing the Packers over the past 2 years anyway. In the last 2 seasons, teams are 9-18 ATS before playing the Packers.
The Colts, meanwhil...