2009 NL Rookie of the Year candidates breakdown

Harry mentioned in the game thread that it would be interesting to see how Wells stacks up with J.A. Happ in this year’s Rookie of the Year race. I added a few other rookies who have been performing well. The result about Happ/Wells wasn’t that surprising, but some of the other players took me by surprise. We’ll look at the stats that the voters tend to look at along with the more sabermetrically inclined stats. The projections listed are the ZiPS RoS projections on fangraphs. Defense used in projected WAR just extrapolates based on this year’s data (I know, I know, but it’s not like we have big samples for any of these guys). NamePositionPAAVGHRRBIwOBA/(proj wOBA)UZR/(UZR/150)WAR (proj WAR) Andrew McCutchenCF239.292631.365 (.326)-0.5 (-0.5)1.4 (1.7) Colby RasmusCF310.2521135.319 (.323)12.2 (23.3)1.6 (2.4) Casey McGehee2b/3b199.319834.386 (.308)2b: 0.9 (4.8), 3b: -6.1 (-48.3)1.0 (0.7) Seth SmithLF238.292929.387 (.373)7.4 (25.9)2.4 (3.3) Garrett JonesLF/RF119.3111017.449 (.337)LF: -0.4 (-4.8) RF: -0.8 (-10.8)1.2 (1.8) The big, big surprise here is Seth Smith. I had no idea he was this good! ZiPS likes him to stay near that talent level too. His defense is probably not this good (though it doesn’t take much to be better than the average LF), but still, wow. One other caveat is that he plays at Coors, though it’s not quite the hitters’ park it once was (not to mention that other parks, i.e. Wrigley, are good hitters’ parks…). The Coors factor will likely hurt him in the BBRAA voting as well. Rasmus has also had a very nice season, but I don’t have a lot of faith in the voters ability to evaluate defense either. The guy is a vacuum out there. From what I remember hearing about McCutchen he was pretty good defensively in the minors (and my lying eyes tell me the same), so he’s likely a little better than this too. NameIPW/LERAFIP (proj FIP)xFIPWAR (projWAR) J.A. Happ1067-22.974.20 (4.90)4.671.4 (1.8) Tommy Hanson615-23.254.42 (5.26)5.150.7 (0.8) Randy Wells957-42.843.68 (4.08)4.101.9 (2.7) Jordan Zimmermann91.13-54.633.55 (4.33)3.452.0 (2.7) Ramon Troncoso63.14-01.993.63 (3.85)3.931.1 (1.6) Mark DiFelice40.24-11.993.60 (4.20)3.810.5 (0.6) It’s not too surprising to see that Wells has indeed pitched better than Happ, who’s been pretty lucky so far this season. He’s still a good pitcher, but if I had money to lay down on him being a *great* pitcher, I would not make the bet. The big surprise here is Jordan Zimmermann. Much like Smith above, I had no idea he was pitching this well. He’s pitching over his head too, but that’s an impressive debut. Of course, pitching for the Natinals will guarantee that he doesn’t even get a sniff of the award. Realistically speaking, it’s going to come down to Happ, Rasmus, and Wells, and I can see scenarios where any of them win it. For Wells, I think he’s far more likely to make it if the Cubs make the playoffs (and of course, he keeps pitching reasonably well). Happ is likely to regress, so if the Cubs don’t make it then I can see Rasmus squeaking in here. The big problem with Rasmus though is properly valuing his defense, as seen above. It should be a very close race!