Originally written on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 11/15/14
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Royals. Batters To their credit, Chicago has had some success in populating their starting lineup with cost-controlled talent. Alejandro De Aza, Gordon Beckham, Tyler Flowers, Dayan Viciedo: all are either in their first season of arbitration or earlier, and all are likely to be worth more than their salaries in 2012. What’s less fortunate is that none of them is likely to be any better than average, if that. Even more unfortunate is that no other field player on the team is projected to be much better than average, either. Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, and Alex Rios will make more than $40 million combined in 2013, but are forecast to produce just six wins or so — or, about $7 million a win. Pitchers The White Sox’ rotation is perhaps the deepest we’ve seen among the 10-plus teams projected so far. Only Yu Darvish‘s projected WAR is distinctly higher so far than Chris Sale‘s — nor are there any black holes after him (i.e. Sale). Left-hander John Danks‘ line is weaker than White Sox fans would probably hope, especially considering how the club owes him $57 million over the next four years; however, that’s perhaps offset by other left-hander Jose Quintana‘s surprisingly promising forecast. As strong as Chicago’s rotation appears to be, the club’s bullpen is even stronger — relative to other teams we’ve considered here so far, at least. All five of the Sox’ top relievers are projected to be worth at least a win, which appears to be a rare accomplishment. Bench/Prospects While the present rotation is strong, it appears as though recent attempts to acquire front-line pitching have been unsuccessful. Simon Castro (acquired from San Diego in the Carlos Quentin) and Nestor Molina (who arrived from Toronto for reliever Sergio Santos), for example, have failed to build off of occasionally promising minor-league resumes. On the other hand, ZiPS does introduce us to Tyler Saladino, a 23-year-old shortstop prospect projected to approach something like major-league average, via a combo package of (a) fair power, (b) fair baserunning, and (c) positional adjustment. Depth Chart Here’s a rough depth chart for the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen): Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Alexei Ramirez R 31 SS 636 69 159 26 3 13 70 13 7 Paul Konerko R 37 1B 559 60 140 21 0 26 80 0 0 Alejandro De Aza L 29 CF 564 72 138 29 6 9 50 23 11 Alex Rios R 32 RF 609 75 155 31 4 18 70 20 7 Jeff Keppinger R 33 3B 454 51 120 19 1 8 45 1 1 Adam Dunn L 33 DH 553 65 95 19 0 29 79 1 1 Gordon Beckham R 26 2B 596 68 134 29 1 14 61 6 5 Jose Lopez R 29 3B 418 43 103 23 0 13 55 2 1 Dayan Viciedo R 24 LF 603 66 147 24 1 23 77 1 1 Tyler Saladino R 23 SS 570 65 113 20 5 11 45 20 8 Hector Gimenez B 30 C 376 38 80 18 1 12 48 2 1 Trayce Thompson R 22 CF 629 72 117 27 4 23 77 13 4 Jordan Danks L 26 CF 478 55 98 19 3 10 40 12 5 Tyler Flowers R 27 C 331 38 60 12 1 13 33 2 1 Josh Phegley R 25 C 405 39 92 18 1 8 42 2 1 Orlando Hudson B 35 2B 406 48 87 12 5 7 40 9 3 Carlos Sanchez B 21 SS 551 56 127 20 4 2 42 16 15 DeWayne Wise L 35 CF 287 32 64 12 4 8 28 12 3 Marcus Semien R 22 SS 456 51 92 21 3 9 42 7 7 Steve Tolleson R 29 SS 419 45 88 17 1 7 34 9 3 Bryan Anderson L 26 C 386 35 78 14 1 8 31 1 0 Brent Morel R 26 3B 452 48 104 20 2 8 39 7 4 Stefan Gartrell R 29 RF 522 60 107 22 1 21 64 5 1 Josh Bell B 26 3B 534 57 109 22 2 16 60 3 4 Angel Sanchez R 29 SS 428 47 96 14 2 3 38 4 2 Andy Wilkins L 24 1B 565 62 117 27 1 22 73 3 3 Cyle Hankerd R 28 RF 302 34 64 14 1 9 38 2 2 Greg Golson R 27 RF 513 51 112 20 6 8 39 17 4 Blake Tekotte L 26 CF 515 60 100 20 4 14 49 19 12 Andy Gonzalez R 31 3B 404 36 77 13 1 7 31 3 2 Jared Mitchell L 24 CF 497 52 84 20 6 11 44 12 6 Keenyn Walker B 22 CF 474 49 85 16 3 3 33 36 18 Seth Loman L 27 1B 548 52 111 20 1 19 60 1 2 Tommy Manzella R 30 SS 417 35 74 11 1 4 30 5 4 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Alexei Ramirez 636 4.7% 12.4% .120 .290 .269 .306 .389 .298 Paul Konerko 559 9.7% 14.7% .201 .292 .284 .360 .485 .356 Alejandro De Aza 564 7.4% 17.9% .134 .323 .272 .333 .406 .319 Alex Rios 609 4.6% 14.3% .163 .290 .271 .307 .434 .318 Jeff Keppinger 454 6.4% 6.6% .109 .294 .289 .337 .398 .318 Adam Dunn 553 15.6% 34.5% .230 .270 .206 .333 .436 .331 Gordon Beckham 596 6.9% 17.4% .137 .285 .250 .312 .387 .303 Jose Lopez 418 3.8% 12.2% .157 .269 .260 .290 .417 .303 Dayan Viciedo 603 5.8% 21.1% .170 .302 .264 .314 .434 .322 Tyler Saladino 570 9.5% 23.5% .125 .283 .226 .309 .351 .294 Hector Gimenez 376 6.6% 25.3% .162 .281 .231 .281 .393 .289 Trayce Thompson 629 7.9% 35.5% .183 .289 .207 .276 .390 .290 Jordan Danks 478 9.6% 31.2% .131 .331 .232 .309 .363 .294 Tyler Flowers 331 11.2% 34.7% .185 .297 .211 .315 .396 .312 Josh Phegley 405 4.4% 19.8% .116 .285 .241 .280 .357 .277 Orlando Hudson 406 9.4% 17.7% .119 .282 .241 .315 .360 .296 Carlos Sanchez 551 6.0% 20.7% .068 .323 .255 .310 .323 .275 DeWayne Wise 287 4.5% 23.7% .163 .287 .238 .276 .401 .296 Marcus Semien 456 8.3% 25.2% .133 .290 .225 .295 .358 .281 Steve Tolleson 419 8.1% 19.8% .106 .278 .233 .297 .339 .283 Bryan Anderson 386 8.0% 26.4% .115 .290 .223 .293 .338 .280 Brent Morel 452 5.1% 19.5% .114 .294 .246 .286 .360 .280 Stefan Gartrell 522 7.7% 29.9% .183 .288 .225 .292 .408 .305 Josh Bell 534 7.5% 30.0% .152 .294 .224 .283 .376 .284 Angel Sanchez 428 7.5% 12.4% .070 .282 .250 .310 .320 .275 Andy Wilkins 565 8.8% 23.9% .187 .267 .229 .298 .416 .308 Cyle Hankerd 302 5.6% 20.9% .159 .274 .236 .308 .395 .306 Greg Golson 513 4.5% 26.3% .117 .310 .235 .276 .352 .276 Blake Tekotte 515 8.3% 30.3% .152 .294 .216 .288 .368 .284 Andy Gonzalez 404 10.6% 22.5% .101 .269 .216 .303 .317 .276 Jared Mitchell 497 9.9% 41.9% .148 .329 .192 .279 .340 .272 Keenyn Walker 474 9.7% 36.7% .074 .333 .202 .285 .276 .255 Seth Loman 548 5.8% 31.0% .159 .298 .223 .294 .382 .295 Tommy Manzella 417 6.5% 32.1% .066 .286 .194 .250 .260 .225 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp Alexei Ramirez 636 4.4 86 7 2.7 Rick Burleson Paul Konerko 559 6.6 125 -5 2.5 Fred McGriff Alejandro De Aza 564 5.0 98 1 2.2 Randy Winn Alex Rios 609 5.1 97 2 1.7 Juan Encarnacion Jeff Keppinger 454 5.1 97 -1 1.6 Bill Madlock Adam Dunn 553 4.9 105 0 1.5 Richie Sexson Gordon Beckham 596 4.3 87 0 1.4 Joe Randa Jose Lopez 418 4.4 88 3 1.4 Kazuo Matsui Dayan Viciedo 603 5.0 99 -1 1.3 Walter Young Tyler Saladino 570 3.9 78 -2 1.3 Ken Jackson Hector Gimenez 376 3.9 79 2 1.3 Alvin Colina Trayce Thompson 629 3.8 77 3 1.2 Wladimir Balentien Jordan Danks 478 4.0 80 4 1.2 Andy Tomberlin Tyler Flowers 331 4.3 91 -3 1.1 David Ross Josh Phegley 405 3.6 70 3 1.0 Jason Hill Orlando Hudson 406 4.1 82 1 1.0 Kazuo Matsui Carlos Sanchez 551 3.3 71 4 0.8 Manuel Lee DeWayne Wise 287 4.2 80 2 0.8 Jalal Leach Marcus Semien 456 3.5 75 0 0.8 Giomar Guevara Steve Tolleson 419 3.6 71 -1 0.7 Nick Ortiz Bryan Anderson 386 3.5 70 -2 0.6 Ray Stephens Brent Morel 452 3.7 73 1 0.5 Juan Portes Stefan Gartrell 522 4.2 86 0 0.5 John Nelson Josh Bell 534 3.6 76 -1 0.5 Les Pearsey Angel Sanchez 428 3.6 71 -4 0.3 Joe Funaro Andy Wilkins 565 4.3 90 -1 0.3 Tom Forrester Cyle Hankerd 302 4.2 88 -1 0.2 Mike Bell Greg Golson 513 3.6 68 5 0.1 Tommy Murphy Blake Tekotte 515 3.5 76 -3 0.1 Brad Snyder Andy Gonzalez 404 3.3 68 -1 0.1 Jason Wood Jared Mitchell 497 3.2 66 -1 -0.1 Mickey Hall Keenyn Walker 474 2.7 53 2 -0.4 Paul Rodgers Seth Loman 548 3.8 81 -4 -0.6 Ivan Cruz Tommy Manzella 417 2.1 38 0 -0.8 Chris Petersen *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Chris Sale L 24 28 28 175.7 174 52 19 156 72 67 Jake Peavy R 32 25 25 159.3 136 38 20 154 76 71 Gavin Floyd R 30 29 28 172.7 141 54 20 173 88 82 Jose Quintana L 24 36 32 186.3 116 67 20 200 97 91 John Danks L 28 20 20 126.0 93 41 15 129 67 63 Dylan Axelrod R 27 27 21 126.7 85 52 16 140 75 70 Nate Jones R 27 65 0 71.0 64 32 7 68 33 31 Matt Thornton L 36 60 0 55.3 55 18 5 51 24 22 Hector Santiago L 25 45 7 81.3 88 50 12 71 43 40 Addison Reed R 24 59 0 66.7 70 21 8 62 31 29 Jesse Crain R 31 58 0 54.0 62 25 7 44 24 22 Donnie Veal L 28 60 0 59.0 55 41 4 53 29 27 Brian Omogrosso R 29 37 0 49.0 40 23 7 51 29 27 Simon Castro R 25 23 23 115.7 69 46 20 136 79 74 Brandon Kloess R 28 38 0 63.3 45 37 7 69 40 37 Nestor Molina R 24 25 23 123.3 74 38 23 150 86 80 Brian Bruney R 31 31 0 32.7 27 23 4 34 21 20 Deunte Heath R 27 37 7 69.7 58 47 11 74 48 45 David Purcey L 31 44 0 47.7 38 38 6 49 32 30 Daniel Moskos L 27 46 0 47.3 32 33 6 52 32 30 Jeff Gray R 31 39 0 47.3 25 23 7 56 33 31 Charlie Leesman L 26 26 26 122.3 66 86 16 145 90 84 Charlie Shirek R 27 26 18 112.7 52 40 21 143 83 78 Leyson Septimo L 27 45 0 44.7 43 49 8 43 34 32 Ramon Troncoso R 30 49 0 63.0 39 35 11 74 46 43 Jhan Marinez R 24 49 0 56.0 50 49 10 58 42 39 Matt Zaleski R 31 25 22 113.0 72 52 23 139 89 83 Jacob Petricka R 25 26 26 112.3 68 98 21 135 96 90 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Chris Sale 175.7 735 23.7% 7.1% .282 3.43 3.39 80 79 Jake Peavy 159.3 670 20.3% 5.7% .286 4.01 3.83 93 89 Gavin Floyd 172.7 745 18.9% 7.2% .295 4.27 4.06 99 95 Jose Quintana 186.3 826 14.0% 8.1% .292 4.40 4.36 102 101 John Danks 126.0 548 17.0% 7.5% .288 4.50 4.17 105 97 Dylan Axelrod 126.7 572 14.9% 9.1% .302 4.97 4.79 116 112 Nate Jones 71.0 313 20.4% 10.2% .292 3.93 3.84 92 89 Matt Thornton 55.3 235 23.4% 7.7% .297 3.58 3.15 83 73 Hector Santiago 81.3 365 24.1% 13.7% .285 4.43 4.95 103 115 Addison Reed 66.7 283 24.7% 7.4% .298 3.92 3.54 91 83 Jesse Crain 54.0 231 26.8% 10.8% .272 3.67 3.76 85 88 Donnie Veal 59.0 271 20.3% 15.1% .293 4.12 4.40 96 102 Brian Omogrosso 49.0 221 18.1% 10.4% .295 4.96 4.85 115 113 Simon Castro 115.7 529 13.0% 8.7% .300 5.76 5.52 134 129 Brandon Kloess 63.3 296 15.2% 12.5% .306 5.26 5.01 122 117 Nestor Molina 123.3 558 13.3% 6.8% .306 5.84 5.44 136 127 Brian Bruney 32.7 155 17.4% 14.8% .300 5.51 5.24 128 122 Deunte Heath 69.7 330 17.6% 14.2% .300 5.81 5.68 135 132 David Purcey 47.7 230 16.5% 16.5% .294 5.66 5.59 132 130 Daniel Moskos 47.3 227 14.1% 14.5% .301 5.70 5.55 133 129 Jeff Gray 47.3 221 11.3% 10.4% .301 5.89 5.55 137 129 Charlie Leesman 122.3 598 11.0% 14.4% .306 6.18 6.02 144 140 Charlie Shirek 112.7 521 10.0% 7.7% .305 6.23 5.87 145 137 Leyson Septimo 44.7 226 19.0% 21.7% .284 6.45 6.92 150 161 Ramon Troncoso 63.0 298 13.1% 11.7% .301 6.14 5.89 143 137 Jhan Marinez 56.0 275 18.2% 17.8% .296 6.27 6.42 146 149 Matt Zaleski 113.0 530 13.6% 9.8% .309 6.61 6.03 154 140 Jacob Petricka 112.3 570 11.9% 17.2% .305 7.21 7.17 168 167 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp Chris Sale 175.7 8.91 2.66 0.97 128 5.0 Vida Blue Jake Peavy 159.3 7.68 2.15 1.13 110 3.4 Dennis Eckersley Gavin Floyd 172.7 7.35 2.81 1.04 103 3.2 Kevin Brown Jose Quintana 186.3 5.60 3.24 0.97 100 3.1 Jimmy Anderson John Danks 126.0 6.64 2.93 1.07 98 2.0 Chris Hammond Dylan Axelrod 126.7 6.04 3.69 1.14 89 1.2 Mike LaCoss Nate Jones 71.0 8.11 4.06 0.89 112 1.1 Bryce Florie Matt Thornton 55.3 8.95 2.93 0.81 123 1.1 Dan Plesac Hector Santiago 81.3 9.74 5.54 1.33 99 1.1 John Rocker Addison Reed 66.7 9.45 2.83 1.08 112 1.0 Huston Street Jesse Crain 54.0 10.33 4.17 1.17 120 1.0 Troy Percival Donnie Veal 59.0 8.39 6.25 0.61 107 0.8 Matt Whisenant Brian Omogrosso 49.0 7.35 4.22 1.29 89 0.1 Ernie Camacho Simon Castro 115.7 5.37 3.58 1.56 76 0.0 Andy Taulbee Brandon Kloess 63.3 6.40 5.26 1.00 84 -0.1 Mike Bumstead Nestor Molina 123.3 5.40 2.77 1.68 75 -0.1 Brian Meadows Brian Bruney 32.7 7.43 6.33 1.10 80 -0.1 Moe Burtschy Deunte Heath 69.7 7.49 6.07 1.42 76 -0.2 Rusty Ford David Purcey 47.7 7.17 7.17 1.13 78 -0.3 Matt Whisenant Daniel Moskos 47.3 6.09 6.28 1.14 77 -0.3 Dean Brueggemann Jeff Gray 47.3 4.76 4.38 1.33 75 -0.4 Bob Scanlan Charlie Leesman 122.3 4.86 6.33 1.18 71 -0.6 Greg Kubes Charlie Shirek 112.7 4.15 3.19 1.68 71 -0.7 Vicente Bonilla Leyson Septimo 44.7 8.66 9.87 1.61 68 -0.7 Roberto Duran Ramon Troncoso 63.0 5.57 5.00 1.57 72 -0.7 Marty McLeary Jhan Marinez 56.0 8.04 7.88 1.61 70 -0.7 Michael Doyne Matt Zaleski 113.0 5.73 4.14 1.83 67 -1.2 Runelvys Hernandez Jacob Petricka 112.3 5.45 7.85 1.68 61 -2.0 Tom Davey *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Jerome Bettis elected to Pro Football Hall of Fame

Report: Tim Duncan suing financial adviser, lost $20 million

Bret Bielema wanted Dolphins to draft Russell Wilson early

Nick Diaz apologizes to fans for skipping open workout

NFLPA President compares Goodell to a 2-year-old

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

NFL explains how Super Bowl balls will be prepped

Floyd Mayweather, Manny Pacquiao close to deal for fight

TJ Lang: Suh wanted to fight me after stepping on Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Hernandez jurors allowed to watch Super Bowl

Tiger misses cut: ‘I’m only doing this so I won’t get fined’

Rex Ryan: Seahawks need to ‘take the air out of the football’

Should the Super Bowl be played on a Saturday?

Underwear company shows support for Marshawn Lynch

WATCH: WVU player flips opponent the double-bird

Five NFL players who could be cap casualties in 2015

Making the case for NFL co-MVPs

WATCH: Tom Brady sings about balls being deflated

WATCH: Bruce Pearl gets warm reception in Tennessee return

WATCH: Serena Williams loses point for yelling "come on!"

Report: Missy Elliott joining Katy Perry for halftime show

WATCH: Jimmy Butler throws down half-court alley-oop

President Obama zings Patriots over Deflate-gate

Each major conference's Player Of The Year candidates

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Tim Duncan suing financial adviser?

Five likely cap casualties of 2015

Making the case for NFL co-MVPs

WATCH: Tom Brady sings about balls

Missy Elliott to join Katy Perry at SB?

Obama zings Pats over Deflate-gate

Each major conference's POY candidates

Super Bowl XLIX preview and predictions: Patriots vs. Seahawks

The 13 things we want to see in Super Bowl XLIX

49 Stops to Super Bowl XLIX

Tiger Woods, misses cut: ‘I’m only doing this so I won’t get fined’

Ranking the repeat SB champions

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.