Originally written on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 11/16/14
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels of You-Know-Where. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other 2013 Projections: Astros / Athletics / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers. Batters It’s impossible to ignore the very optimistic projection for 2012′s Champion of WAR, Mike Trout — so, let’s not. While an eight-win season is certainly aggressive so far as a forecast is concerned — if for no other reason than only two or three players surpass the eight-win threshold per year — it’s also the case that ZiPS is being at least somewhat conservative with regard to Trout, forecasting him to hit fewer home runs, steal fewer bases, post a considerably lower BABIP, and save fewer runs afield in 2013 than in 2012. Otherwise, the Angels are almost uniformly above average: with the exception of Mark Trumbo, every starter is projected to post a (rounded) WAR of 3.0 or greater. Pitchers Because the author isn’t particularly great at his job, he’s failed to ask Dan Szymborksi what the record might be among starting pitchers for the projected difference between their ERA-minuses and FIP-minuses. In any case, Jered Weaver‘s difference of 10 points (77 ERA-, 87 FIP-) must be close — and is greater, for example, than Matt Cain‘s eight-point separation (78 ERA-, 86 FIP-) by that same measure, despite Cain’s own reputation for preventing runs above and beyond his defense-independent metrics. Missing the entirety of the 2012 season predictably suppresses likely closer Ryan Madson‘s innings projection to 42 — despite the fact that he’s never thrown fewer than 53 innings during any season in which he’s been actually healthy. If he returns to his previous form, however, ZiPS foresees him capable of throwing quality high-leverage innings. Bench/Prospects According to Cot’s Contracts, outfielder Vernon Wells is expected to make just under $25 million in both 2013 and ’14. That’s a lot to pay a bench player, but that appears to be what role Wells is most likely to fill in 2013. Somewhat troubling is ZiPS’ assessment of right-hander Garrett Richards, who, despite sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball, has yet to prove that his stuff will translate to the major-league level. Depth Chart Here’s a rough depth chart for the Angels, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen): Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Mike Trout R 21 CF 695 122 171 28 11 29 83 47 8 Albert Pujols R 33 1B 638 88 161 37 0 31 94 10 2 Josh Hamilton L 32 LF 584 73 140 28 3 26 86 7 2 Erick Aybar B 29 SS 601 72 153 29 6 8 48 23 6 Howie Kendrick R 29 2B 614 68 155 32 4 12 70 14 6 Peter Bourjos R 26 CF 471 63 106 17 8 10 47 18 6 Alberto Callaspo B 30 3B 553 58 132 23 1 10 55 5 2 Mark Trumbo R 27 LF 596 67 146 24 2 31 94 6 5 Chris Iannetta R 30 C 333 33 63 10 1 11 37 2 2 Vernon Wells R 34 LF 449 53 104 20 2 17 52 7 3 Hank Conger B 25 C 409 39 90 17 1 8 41 1 1 Luis Jimenez R 25 3B 588 61 137 35 3 12 69 13 7 Tommy Field R 26 SS 550 47 103 20 3 8 42 6 3 Kole Calhoun L 25 RF 557 59 118 25 4 12 58 11 4 Andrew Romine L 27 SS 494 48 104 11 4 3 31 17 8 Travis Witherspoon R 24 CF 573 56 111 17 3 11 43 24 10 Angel Sanchez R 29 SS 428 45 95 14 2 2 37 4 2 Luis Rodriguez B 33 2B 330 34 74 13 1 5 34 3 4 John Hester R 29 C 302 33 61 12 1 6 26 2 2 Luke Carlin B 32 C 262 27 50 8 0 3 22 1 1 Scott Cousins L 28 RF 345 38 71 13 3 6 31 9 4 Trent Oeltjen L 30 RF 458 48 94 18 5 8 43 13 6 J.B. Shuck L 26 LF 520 57 115 14 5 0 32 12 8 Paul McAnulty L 32 1B 481 44 93 22 1 14 51 1 2 Brendan Harris R 32 3B 464 39 94 21 2 5 36 1 2 Efren Navarro L 27 1B 597 57 133 27 2 6 51 3 3 Doug Deeds L 32 LF 369 34 74 17 3 5 28 4 3 Matt Young L 30 RF 488 55 94 16 4 2 25 16 6 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Mike Trout 695 10.2% 20.7% .225 .322 .282 .361 .507 .378 Albert Pujols 638 9.9% 11.3% .231 .278 .285 .359 .516 .354 Josh Hamilton 584 8.2% 22.3% .214 .303 .267 .329 .481 .335 Erick Aybar 601 4.7% 11.5% .117 .301 .276 .316 .393 .308 Howie Kendrick 614 4.9% 17.8% .133 .316 .272 .314 .405 .309 Peter Bourjos 471 5.7% 21.7% .148 .302 .248 .302 .396 .302 Alberto Callaspo 553 8.9% 9.6% .111 .278 .265 .330 .376 .307 Mark Trumbo 596 5.7% 24.2% .218 .300 .263 .309 .481 .333 Chris Iannetta 333 12.9% 24.0% .160 .269 .224 .334 .384 .314 Vernon Wells 449 5.3% 14.9% .178 .257 .248 .290 .426 .308 Hank Conger 409 7.3% 18.3% .115 .282 .243 .300 .358 .285 Luis Jimenez 588 3.1% 16.7% .139 .277 .247 .274 .386 .282 Tommy Field 550 7.3% 25.3% .102 .273 .209 .279 .311 .261 Kole Calhoun 557 7.5% 23.0% .136 .286 .232 .294 .368 .292 Andrew Romine 494 6.3% 19.2% .063 .287 .232 .287 .295 .256 Travis Witherspoon 573 6.6% 27.6% .106 .277 .210 .267 .316 .261 Angel Sanchez 428 6.5% 12.4% .062 .278 .245 .298 .307 .264 Luis Rodriguez 330 8.2% 11.2% .102 .270 .251 .317 .353 .291 John Hester 302 6.6% 26.8% .116 .288 .221 .277 .337 .266 Luke Carlin 262 10.3% 20.2% .074 .266 .216 .299 .290 .264 Scott Cousins 345 5.8% 26.4% .116 .290 .223 .271 .339 .263 Trent Oeltjen 458 6.3% 28.6% .126 .308 .227 .285 .353 .273 J.B. Shuck 520 8.7% 11.5% .051 .279 .244 .311 .295 .269 Paul McAnulty 481 7.9% 25.6% .151 .261 .213 .279 .364 .279 Brendan Harris 464 6.0% 17.0% .094 .259 .222 .277 .316 .261 Efren Navarro 597 5.0% 15.6% .088 .274 .239 .277 .327 .263 Doug Deeds 369 5.7% 26.6% .111 .288 .217 .267 .328 .258 Matt Young 488 9.8% 17.8% .069 .267 .218 .300 .287 .266 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp Mike Trout 695 7.5 142 8 8.0 Matt Kemp Albert Pujols 638 7.1 144 4 5.3 Orlando Cepeda Josh Hamilton 584 5.9 126 5 3.8 Chick Hafey Erick Aybar 601 4.9 99 0 3.2 Tony Fernandez Howie Kendrick 614 4.8 102 2 3.0 Jim Davenport Peter Bourjos 471 4.4 96 11 2.8 Shane Victorino Alberto Callaspo 553 4.6 99 4 2.7 Bill Mueller Mark Trumbo 596 5.4 119 -5 2.3 Richie Sexson Chris Iannetta 333 4.4 103 -1 1.8 Mike Fitzgerald Vernon Wells 449 4.5 99 2 1.3 Hoot Evers Hank Conger 409 3.8 86 -4 1.2 Walt McKeel Luis Jimenez 588 3.8 84 -4 1.0 Angel Chavez Tommy Field 550 3.0 67 0 0.9 Ricky Magdaleno Kole Calhoun 557 3.9 86 1 0.8 Darren Burton Andrew Romine 494 3.0 65 -1 0.6 Kevin Castleberry Travis Witherspoon 573 3.0 65 3 0.5 Barry Wesson Angel Sanchez 428 3.3 72 -4 0.5 Joe Funaro Luis Rodriguez 330 3.9 90 -5 0.3 Nelson Liriano John Hester 302 3.2 73 -4 0.3 Dwight Lowry Luke Carlin 262 2.9 68 -2 0.3 Bob Swift Scott Cousins 345 3.2 71 3 0.2 Jalal Leach Trent Oeltjen 458 3.5 79 0 0.1 Michael Tucker J.B. Shuck 520 3.2 73 3 -0.1 Steve Stanley Paul McAnulty 481 3.4 80 0 -0.1 Jody Davis Brendan Harris 464 3.0 68 -4 -0.1 Jorge Velandia Efren Navarro 597 3.2 70 5 -0.3 Chad Chop Doug Deeds 369 3.0 68 0 -0.3 Todd Dunwoody Matt Young 488 3.1 68 -5 -0.8 Jarvis Brown *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Jered Weaver R 30 31 31 203.0 176 49 20 171 73 68 C.J. Wilson L 32 31 31 193.3 169 79 15 172 80 75 Tommy Hanson R 26 29 29 169.7 149 57 22 166 79 74 Jason Vargas L 30 29 29 186.0 118 48 26 189 96 90 Ernesto Frieri R 27 66 0 66.0 85 32 7 48 24 22 Joe Blanton R 32 21 20 130.3 98 25 19 140 70 65 Nick Maronde L 23 24 15 78.7 54 27 8 81 40 37 Jerome Williams R 31 28 17 129.7 86 33 17 140 71 66 Ryan Madson R 32 44 0 42.0 40 11 3 38 16 15 Sean Burnett L 30 68 0 56.3 48 17 5 54 24 22 Scott Downs L 37 54 0 45.0 33 14 4 42 19 18 Kevin Jepsen R 28 63 0 58.7 50 23 5 56 28 26 LaTroy Hawkins R 40 45 0 40.3 24 13 4 43 20 19 Ryan Brasier R 25 56 0 58.3 42 29 5 58 30 28 Jason Isringhausen R 40 43 0 38.0 29 17 5 38 20 19 Steve Geltz R 25 43 0 52.3 51 28 7 48 28 26 David Carpenter R 27 54 0 59.7 45 25 8 61 32 30 Jo-Jo Reyes L 28 21 14 82.0 51 28 12 93 50 47 Mitch Stetter L 32 36 0 26.0 21 14 4 27 16 15 Michael Kohn R 27 48 0 48.0 43 28 7 47 28 26 Brandon Sisk L 27 46 0 61.7 48 34 8 62 36 34 Garrett Richards R 25 34 23 133.3 83 63 16 153 85 79 Sean White R 32 39 1 51.0 26 31 5 58 33 31 Bobby Cassevah R 27 53 0 62.0 32 32 7 68 39 36 Barry Enright R 27 27 27 146.7 84 62 26 162 95 89 Brad Mills L 28 23 22 121.3 77 50 18 143 80 75 Billy Buckner R 29 22 22 119.3 61 53 18 137 79 74 Andrew Taylor L 26 42 7 72.7 40 49 12 88 57 53 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Jered Weaver 203.0 829 21.2% 5.9% .260 3.01 3.41 77 87 C.J. Wilson 193.3 831 20.3% 9.5% .280 3.49 3.69 89 94 Tommy Hanson 169.7 732 20.4% 7.8% .290 3.93 4.08 100 104 Jason Vargas 186.0 795 14.8% 6.0% .272 4.35 4.43 111 113 Ernesto Frieri 66.0 278 30.6% 11.5% .279 3.00 3.58 76 91 Joe Blanton 130.3 556 17.6% 4.5% .294 4.49 4.06 114 103 Nick Maronde 78.7 344 15.7% 7.8% .292 4.23 4.26 108 109 Jerome Williams 129.7 562 15.3% 5.9% .293 4.58 4.35 117 111 Ryan Madson 42.0 175 22.9% 6.3% .294 3.21 2.76 82 70 Sean Burnett 56.3 240 20.0% 7.1% .292 3.51 3.40 89 87 Scott Downs 45.0 191 17.3% 7.3% .273 3.60 3.65 92 93 Kevin Jepsen 58.7 255 19.6% 9.0% .293 3.99 3.67 102 94 LaTroy Hawkins 40.3 177 13.6% 7.3% .287 4.24 4.09 108 104 Ryan Brasier 58.3 262 16.0% 11.1% .290 4.32 4.42 110 112 Jason Isringhausen 38.0 169 17.2% 10.1% .280 4.50 4.46 115 114 Steve Geltz 52.3 233 21.9% 12.0% .285 4.47 4.55 114 116 David Carpenter 59.7 265 17.0% 9.4% .289 4.53 4.64 115 118 Jo-Jo Reyes 82.0 367 13.9% 7.6% .299 5.16 4.96 131 126 Mitch Stetter 26.0 119 17.6% 11.8% .295 5.19 5.21 132 133 Michael Kohn 48.0 219 19.6% 12.8% .288 4.88 5.07 124 129 Brandon Sisk 61.7 281 17.1% 12.1% .289 4.96 5.02 126 128 Garrett Richards 133.3 616 13.5% 10.2% .307 5.33 4.99 136 127 Sean White 51.0 242 10.7% 12.8% .299 5.47 5.29 139 135 Bobby Cassevah 62.0 286 11.2% 11.2% .288 5.23 5.13 133 131 Barry Enright 146.7 664 12.6% 9.3% .280 5.46 5.62 139 143 Brad Mills 121.3 557 13.8% 9.0% .309 5.56 5.14 142 131 Billy Buckner 119.3 548 11.1% 9.7% .291 5.58 5.52 142 141 Andrew Taylor 72.7 355 11.3% 13.8% .305 6.56 6.37 167 162 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR Jered Weaver 203.0 7.80 2.17 0.89 127 4.9 C.J. Wilson 193.3 7.87 3.68 0.70 110 3.6 Tommy Hanson 169.7 7.90 3.02 1.17 98 2.2 Jason Vargas 186.0 5.71 2.32 1.26 88 1.5 Ernesto Frieri 66.0 11.59 4.36 0.95 128 1.0 Joe Blanton 130.3 6.77 1.73 1.31 86 0.8 Nick Maronde 78.7 6.18 3.09 0.91 91 0.7 Jerome Williams 129.7 5.97 2.29 1.18 84 0.6 Ryan Madson 42.0 8.57 2.36 0.64 119 0.5 Sean Burnett 56.3 7.67 2.72 0.80 109 0.5 Scott Downs 45.0 6.60 2.80 0.80 107 0.4 Kevin Jepsen 58.7 7.67 3.53 0.77 96 0.2 LaTroy Hawkins 40.3 5.36 2.90 0.89 91 0.0 Ryan Brasier 58.3 6.48 4.48 0.77 89 0.0 Jason Isringhausen 38.0 6.87 4.03 1.18 85 -0.1 Steve Geltz 52.3 8.78 4.82 1.20 86 -0.1 David Carpenter 59.7 6.78 3.77 1.21 85 -0.2 Jo-Jo Reyes 82.0 5.60 3.07 1.32 74 -0.2 Mitch Stetter 26.0 7.27 4.85 1.38 74 -0.3 Michael Kohn 48.0 8.06 5.25 1.31 79 -0.4 Brandon Sisk 61.7 7.00 4.96 1.17 77 -0.5 Garrett Richards 133.3 5.60 4.25 1.08 72 -0.6 Sean White 51.0 4.59 5.47 0.88 70 -0.7 Bobby Cassevah 62.0 4.65 4.65 1.02 73 -0.7 Barry Enright 146.7 5.15 3.80 1.60 70 -0.8 Brad Mills 121.3 5.71 3.71 1.34 69 -0.8 Billy Buckner 119.3 4.60 4.00 1.36 69 -0.8 Andrew Taylor 72.7 4.95 6.07 1.49 59 -1.7 *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.
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