Divisional Series Playoff Roster

Like everybody else, I am extremely excited that the Dodgers are returning to the postseason. However, there are still decisions to be made between now and the first game, mainly setting the playoff roster. I obviously don't have any control over the matter, but what I can do is give my two cents on the topic.

Starting Lineup

C-Russell Martin
1B-James Loney
2B-Orlando Hudson
3B-Casey Blake
SS-Rafael Furcal
LF-Manny Ramirez
CF-Matt Kemp
RF-Andre Ethier

The eight players listed above are obvious inclusions on the Dodgers playoff roster, and all but one of them are an easy choice to be named starter as well. Of course, that one other case is the battle for second base between Hudson and Belliard.

I've compared the two players on this site before, and little has changed since then. That shouldn't be too surprising, since both Hudson and Belliard still have the same talent level they did two weeks ago.

I'm favoring Hudson simply because I think he's the player with the better skills. In general terms, he's a better hitter (.339/.331 wOBA), a better fielder (2.4/0.4 UZR/150), and a better baserunner (+18/-5 Net Gain) than Belliard is. However, if Joe Torre were to go with the hot hand in Belliard, I wouldn't mind so much in this case, because the difference in talent between the two individuals is not extreme.

My conclusion is basically to pick whoever you prefer, because in the end, the difference probably won't be much. That said, I would urge you to keep in mind what I wrote in that comparison post about hot streaks.

Everybody is reeling off these comparisons to Marlon Anderson in 2006, but while he may have had a 1.243 OPS for the Dodgers that year, his OPS in the postseason was .692. I don't blame him though, he was never as good as he showed during the regular season after that trade. And neither is Belliard.

Remember, hot and cold streaks start and end quite randomly. That's not a stat nerd thing either. Everybody who has played any sport knows that there's no switch you turn on and off. Sometimes you just feel like God and you're drilling everything. A week later, you go 1-4 in a game, then 0-4 the next day, and before you know it, you're 1 for your last 21, and everybody's asking you why you suck. Point being, if you want to chance it that Belliard's hot streak will continue, I don't have any real issue with it. Personally though? I'd rather not risk it.

To that point, even Belliard admits he doesn't know how he'll get back in the groove. His current health is a concern of mine as well.

By the way, and I find it sad that I even have to bring this up, but the Dodgers should not be starting Pierre over Manny. I know the temptation is there because Pierre is fun to watch and he always looks like he's doing more, but that's just not reality. For instance, all of us Dodgers fans agree that the problem in September was the offensive production, right? Well, as terrible as Manny seemed to have done down the stretch, his September OPS (.849) was still 56 points higher than Pierre's career high OPS (.793) in a single year. Think about it.

Bench

C-Brad Ausmus
IF-Ronnie Belliard
IF-Juan Castro
IF-Blake DeWitt
OF-Juan Pierre
PH-Jim Thome

Ausmus, Belliard, and Pierre are easy inclusions, and I doubt anybody would protest their spots on the roster.

Thome is in question to some because all he does is pinch hit, and he's having health problems with his foot. Plus, he has a terrible .375 OPS with the Dodgers. However, I want him on the bench because he's still a huge power threat that can work a walk, and that's more than I can say for the rest of the bench options.

Castro is there simply because he's the only one that can play shortstop besides Chin Lung Hu. I actually think Hu is a better player than Castro (.333 Second Half OPS), but he hasn't played nearly enough to be ready.

DeWitt is included because his presence on the roster allows for managerial flexibility. He's a great defender at third, is decent at second, and is a solid left-handed bat off the bench. Sure, DeWitt struggled while being shuffled up and down between the majors and minors, but in limited appearances down the stretch, he looked great.

I put DeWitt over Mark Loretta because Loretta offers almost nothing. Sure, he plays third and first, but he doesn't do either particularly well anymore, and the guy can't hit. I'm sorry, but a .585 overall OPS, and a .509 OPS in the second half just isn't going to cut it from a player who is supposed to be primarily a pinch hitter.

Starting Rotation

SP-Randy Wolf
SP-Clayton Kershaw
SP-Chad Billingsley

That's right, I would go with three starters. Why? Because I absolutely want the best pitcher on the team (Kershaw) to start a Game 5 on regular rest, if necessary. I would also rather start Wolf on short rest than go with Jon Garland or Vicente Padilla. An alternative to this would be pitching Kershaw in Game 1, but something about throwing a 21-year-old lefty into his first playoff start in the first game of the NLDS screams Rick Ankiel to me, and while i'm sure Kershaw would be fine, he's too valuable to risk it.

As far as Billingsley goes, I choose him over Garland and Padilla because he's a better pitcher. I've gone over this before, but i'm taking true talent level over finishing hot every single time.

Look, i'm fully capable of recognizing that mediocre players like Marlon Anderson, Ronnie Belliard, and Juan Uribe have the ability to go nuts from time to time. My problem with those players, as always, is that doing so is simply improbable, and from my experience, you never want to bet against stacked odds.

Is it possible that Garland and Padilla win six postseason games for this team? Sure. And if they start in the playoffs, I hope they do. However, I just don't think it's a probable occurrence. To me, it seems like many fans are in a war against logic, and like betting against stacked odds, that's not a side I want to be on.

Sorry to quote myself again, but there's no point in being redundant.

If the Dodgers have to take Billingsley out after five good innings because of worry about his sixth inning troubles, then so be it. The Dodgers don't have the best bullpen in the majors for nothing, and they should end up leaning on them, it's their strength after all.

By the way, if you're one of those fans who still believes Billingsley is struggling because of mental issues, read this. Furthermore, I still don't think there's a huge difference between Cole Hamels and Billingsley.

If Hiroki Kuroda was healthy, he would be my choice over Billingsley, but alas, he is not.

Relief Corps

Jonathan Broxton
George Sherrill
Hong Chih Kuo
Ronald Belisario
Ramon Troncoso
James McDonald
Scott Elbert
Vicente Padilla

Broxton, Sherrill, Kuo, Belisario, and Troncoso are no brainers. That leaves Guillermo Mota, James McDonald, Jeff Weaver, Jon Garland, Vicente Padilla, and Scott Elbert to duke it out for three remaining spots.

Since I only have the Dodgers using three starters, I would prefer to keep two relievers that can go multiple innings just in case.

Between Weaver, Garland, and Padilla, I marginally prefer Padilla. In general terms, Garland and Padilla are both slightly above league average pitchers, while Weaver is about league average or slightly below. The difference maker for me is that Padilla's explosive stuff should serve him well in the bullpen. Plus, he can still go multiple innings or take an emergency start if need be. There's just more flexibility and upside with him than there is with the other two.

Out of McDonald, Elbert, and Mota, i'm going to take McDonald and Elbert. I know Mota is the easy choice because of all he's done this year, but he hasn't been great since July, and he has only thrown 2 1/3 innings since his toe injury.

McDonald has been solid since moving to the bullpen, posting a 2.77 ERA as a reliever. However, a lot of fans still don't like him because he loses a lot of games. To me though, that's just a byproduct of his role. He's the guy that usually comes into tie games in the late innings, and that's generally going to net a lot of wins and losses. Hence, the 4-4 record as a reliever.

I believe Elbert is the most controversial choice here, as even I admit that he hasn't been great this year. However, the Cardinals are atrocious at hitting lefties, so just having a third lefty out of the pen with plus raw stuff could end up being a difference maker. He could be the wild card producer out of the pen like McDonald was last year.

Realism

Torre isn't likely to take the roster I suggested above, so to add a bit of realism, i'll predict the changes he'll make.

Mark Loretta Over Blake DeWitt
Guillermo Mota Over James McDonald
Jon Garland Over Scott Elbert

Besides Torre's love for using a bad hitter in Loretta at every opportunity, there isn't likely to be a large difference between the ideal roster and his own. I hope.