Prospect Profiles 2008: Lucas May

Overview-Signed as a 8th round draft pick in 2003, May was originally selected to play shortstop. He didn't have the skills to stick at the position, however, and after much shuffling, he eventually found a home behind the plate. With both his offensive and defensive skills still developing, it remains to be seen where May will fit in the Dodgers' plans.

Hitting-Any discussion of May's offensive tools starts with his power. His plus power for a catcher is generated by a long swing that can get pull concious at times. He has poor contact rates, and he's a free swinger with well below average plate discipline.

Fielding-May still has a long way to go behind the plate but he is flashing all the tools of a competent defensive catcher. His well above average arm is more than enough, and he has the athleticism to handle the position. Yes, he still has a lot to learn about calling games, blocking balls, and other nuiances, but I would be very surprised if he didn't develop into a solid defensive option.

Baserunning-May has good speed, especially for a catcher. He's adept at stealing bases, but I doubt that'll continue as he moves up levels.

Mental-Still has a lot of learning to do about calling a game, but there's nothing else to note of any significance.

Health-No problems that i'm aware of.

Performance-I mentioned before that May's raw power is his biggest offensive asset, and so far his statistics reflect just that. With ISO's of .220 and .209 the past two years, he shows that his power numbers are legit and here to stay.

His low batting averages are a problem, but May hits the ball hard with decent consistency (15% LD last two years). The problem is that he doesn't put the ball in play nearly enough to give his average a chance, as he strikes out in 20-25% of his plate appearances. Since that number is not offset by good plate discipline (~7% BB last two years), May will probably never hit for a high average if he doesn't improve drastically.

It's surprising that, even with all the position shuffling, May is not that old for his level of play. Therefore, i'm not all that concerned with any statistical skewing.

Other-He's a good athlete, and most scouts seem to agree that he has a very strong work ethic.

Projection-At this point in his development, May's ceiling projects as a .240-.250 hitter with 20-25 HR power. He should also have solid gap power, but his on-base skills will probably always lag.

I think the likelihood of May reaching his ceiling is quite high, especially since it's just a reflection of what his current strengths and weaknesses already show. At worse, May ends up being a solid major league backup. At best, he's sorta like Mike Napoli with less walks. Think less HR and more 2B though.

The Dodgers gave May an ambitious assignment at AA for 2008, especially considering his relative lack of experience. He'll likely need to repeat AA in 2009, but he could be in Los Angeles by as early as 2010 if that goes well. However, the more likely scenario is that he gets dealt to another team the moment he starts to show development at AA.